hD13 wrote:
Why does order matter here for EEO
We are anyway replacing the ball taken out.
Why does it matter if i were to replace anyway.
443 344 and 434 is the same ? What am i missing in this logic ?
In this specific question, you'll often end up with the correct answer, 1/2, even if you don't think order matters, or if you don't notice we're doing things with replacement. But in other similar questions, you'd get the wrong answer if you did that, which I'll illustrate with a couple of simple examples:
If two numbers will be chosen from the set {1, 2} without replacement, what is the probability their sum is odd?Here, if we choose without replacement, we automatically pick 1 and 2, and the sum is always 3, so the probability the sum is odd is 100%. Contrast that with the question
If two numbers will be chosen from the set {1, 2} with replacement, what is the probability their sum is odd?There are simpler ways to do the question, but one way to do this is to list all the things that can happen. If we pick '1' first, there will be two numbers we can pick next, and same if we pick '2' first, so there will be four sequences we can pick in total:
1, 1
1, 2
2, 1
2, 2
and in two out of four cases, the sum is odd, so the answer is 2/4 = 1/2. This illustrates why order matters: here, there are two different ways to get a 1 and a 2, in some order, but only one way to get a 1 and a 1. It's twice as likely that we pick 1 and 2 (in some order) than that we pick 1 and 1, and we need to be sure to account for that. If instead we thought "1+2 and 2+1 are the same, so that's only one event", we'd think there are only three events in total (1,1 and 1,2 and 2,2), one of which gives an odd sum, and we'd get the incorrect answer 1/3.
In the particular problem in this thread, the other reason we care that selections are done with replacement is because that's what the question tells us is happening here. There's a reason for that - it's a much simpler problem this way, and the GMAT likes simple problems. If you instead solve the problem without replacement, no matter how you solve, the math turns out to be messier, though it turns out you'll still get the same answer in the specific situation the question outlines.
_________________
http://www.ianstewartgmat.com