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A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine

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A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine [#permalink] New post 24 Jan 2006, 01:28
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A
B
C
D
E

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A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was written and signed by a Dr. Shirley Martin who, in the text of the letter, mentions being a professor at a major North American medical school. Knowing that fewer than 5 percent of the professors at such schools are women, the editor reasons that the chances are better than 19 to 1 that the letter was written by a man.
Which one of the following involves flawed reasoning most like that used by the editor?
(A) Since 19 out of 20 home computers are purchased primarily for use with computer games, and the first computer sold today was purchased solely for word processing, the next 19 computers sold will almost certainly be used primarily for computer games.
(B) Fewer than 1 in 20 of the manuscripts submitted to Argon Publishing Co. are accepted for publication. Since only 15 manuscripts were submitted last week, there is almost no chance that any of them will be accepted for publication.
(C) Fewer that 5 percent of last year’s graduating class took Latin in secondary school. Howard took Latin in secondary school, so if he had graduated last year, it is likely that one or the other Latin scholars would not have graduated.
(D) More that 95 percent of the planes built by UBC last year met government standards for large airliners. Since small planes account for just under 5 percent of UBC’s output last year, it is almost certain that all their large planes met government standards.
(E) Since more than 19 out of every 20 animals in the wildlife preserve are mammals and fewer than 1 out of 20 are birds, there is a greater than 95 percent chance that the animal Emily saw flying between two trees in the wildlife refuge yesterday morning was a mammal.
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 [#permalink] New post 24 Jan 2006, 01:57
The reasoning of the editor: Despite the fact that the author has a female name, the chance that it actually is a women that wrote the letter is less than five percent, because the generally there are less than five percent women teaching at the repective high-school.

In E we have the same reasoning: Despite the fact that one animal was flying ( which is a strong hint that it was a bird, although it must not have been) from one tree to another, the cahncethat it actually was a brid is less than five percent.

Ther point in this passage is, that although the "signature" of some event or thing leads to a conclusion, the conclusion is made unlikely by arguing with statistical data, which is obviously flaw, since it is simply no evidence.

Last edited by allabout on 24 Jan 2006, 01:59, edited 1 time in total.
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 [#permalink] New post 24 Jan 2006, 01:57
I think C.

Is this from LSAT? This is a real headache. :stab
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 [#permalink] New post 24 Jan 2006, 09:13
Supra headache. I just don't feel like solving this one.
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 [#permalink] New post 24 Jan 2006, 20:04
These LSAT ones...They all look the same..I dont know how people study for LAW/..

I would go for E
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 [#permalink] New post 25 Jan 2006, 13:11
I would go for E too ... In main para its guessing between male and female ... similarly in E its guessing between mammal and birds and the ratio is same in both the scenario .
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 [#permalink] New post 25 Jan 2006, 20:59
andy_gr8 wrote:
These LSAT ones...They all look the same..I dont know how people study for LAW/..

I would go for E


LOTS AND LOTS OF CAFFEINE. :P

Similiar logic is evident in (E).
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 [#permalink] New post 25 Jan 2006, 21:58
blind shot ! E for me
As Bhai said real headache))
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 [#permalink] New post 26 Jan 2006, 18:05
'E'

nice Q
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 [#permalink] New post 26 Jan 2006, 20:08
OA is E!

It was a pain in the .... eye... to get through the choices, but E is correct.

The trick they use is the parallel reasoning argument usually is distorted in form. The wordings don't follow the same format. The original argument starts with 5%. The correct choice starts with 19/20...

Also sometimes in the correct choice the conclusion appears first and then the premises.
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 [#permalink] New post 27 Jan 2006, 22:24
went with E as well..the games these guys play to confuse us.
  [#permalink] 27 Jan 2006, 22:24
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A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine

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