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A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was writte

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A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was writte [#permalink] New post   03 Mar 2020, 05:10
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63% (02:49) correct 37% (03:00) wrong based on 405 sessions
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A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was written and signed by a Dr. Shirley Martin who, in the text of the letter, mentions being a professor at a major North American medical school. Knowing that fewer than 5 percent of the professors at such schools are women, the editor reasons that the chances are better than 19 to 1 that the letter was written by a man.

Which one of the following involves flawed reasoning most like that used by the editor?


(A) Since 19 out of 20 home computers are purchased primarily for use with computer games, and the first computer sold today was purchased solely for word processing, the next 19 computers sold will almost certainly be used primarily for computer games.

(B) Fewer than 1 in 20 of the manuscripts submitted to Argon Publishing Co. are accepted for publication. Since only 15 manuscripts were submitted last week, there is almost no chance that any of them will be accepted for publication.

(C) Fewer that 5 percent of last year’s graduating class took Latin in secondary school. Howard took Latin in secondary school, so if he had graduated last year, it is likely that one or the other Latin scholars would not have graduated.

(D) More that 95 percent of the planes built by UBC last year met government standards for large airliners. Since small planes account for just under 5 percent of UBC’s output last year, it is almost certain that all their large planes met government standards.

(E) Since more than 19 out of every 20 animals in the wildlife preserve are mammals and fewer than 1 out of 20 are birds, there is a greater than 95 percent chance that the animal Emily saw flying between two trees in the wildlife refuge yesterday morning was a mammal.
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Re: A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was writte [#permalink] New post   10 Mar 2020, 05:52
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Correct Answer: E
A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was written and signed by a Dr. Shirley Martin who, in the text of the letter, mentions being a professor at a major North American medical school. Knowing that fewer than 5 percent of the professors at such schools are women, the editor reasons that the chances are better than 19 to 1 that the letter was written by a man.

Which one of the following involves flawed reasoning most like that used by the editor?


(A) Since 19 out of 20 home computers are purchased primarily for use with computer games, and the first computer sold today was purchased solely for word processing, the next 19 computers sold will almost certainly be used primarily for computer games. -->Incorrect, as the flaw is other than that in Premise. Flaw here is exactness of the probability is taken.

(B) Fewer than 1 in 20 of the manuscripts submitted to Argon Publishing Co. are accepted for publication. Since only 15 manuscripts were submitted last week, there is almost no chance that any of them will be accepted for publication. -->Incorrect, as the flaw is other than that in Premise. Flaw here is exactness of the probability is taken.

(C) Fewer that 5 percent of last year’s graduating class took Latin in secondary school. Howard took Latin in secondary school, so if he had graduated last year, it is likely that one or the other Latin scholars would not have graduated. -->Incorrect, as the flaw is other than that in Premise. Flaw here is, it could be the case that there are 100 students in class, making atmost 4 students with latin.

(D) More that 95 percent of the planes built by UBC last year met government standards for large airliners. Since small planes account for just under 5 percent of UBC’s output last year, it is almost certain that all their large planes met government standards.Incorrect, as the flaw is other than that in Premise. Flaw here is exactness of the probability is taken.

(E) Since more than 19 out of every 20 animals in the wildlife preserve are mammals and fewer than 1 out of 20 are birds, there is a greater than 95 percent chance that the animal Emily saw flying between two trees in the wildlife refuge yesterday morning was a mammal.-->Correct, same flaw as in the premise.
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Re: A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was writte [#permalink] New post   26 May 2021, 23:21
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(A) Since 19 out of 20 home computers are purchased primarily for use with computer games, and the first computer sold today was purchased solely for word processing, the next 19 computers sold will almost certainly be used primarily for computer games.


This doesn't help us in determining yhe fewer than 5 percent were it could be zero in caase of women , whereas here the computers are part of the plot irrespective of whether they are used or not whereas women are unavailable in our question so .

(B) Fewer than 1 in 20 of the manuscripts submitted to Argon Publishing Co. are accepted for publication. Since only 15 manuscripts were submitted last week, there is almost no chance that any of them will be accepted for publication.


this doesn't even talks about 2 subjects that can be considered for evaluvation so out

(C) Fewer that 5 percent of last year’s graduating class took Latin in secondary school. Howard took Latin in secondary school, so if he had graduated last year, it is likely that one or the other Latin scholars would not have graduated.

It only talks about the other 5 percent and not addressing the entire plot which should at least consider 2 subjects

(D) More that 95 percent of the planes built by UBC last year met government standards for large airliners. Since small planes account for just under 5 percent of UBC’s output last year, it is almost certain that all their large planes met government standards.

Similarly it just addresses one part and doesn't apply with the criteria of 2 objects
(E) Since more than 19 out of every 20 animals in the wildlife preserve are mammals and fewer than 1 out of 20 are birds, there is a greater than 95 percent chance that the animal Emily saw flying between two trees in the wildlife refuge yesterday morning was a mammal.[/quote]



all the others are redeemed here hence the answer E is the option




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A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was writte [#permalink] New post   Updated on: 07 Jun 2022, 09:29
To find a similar fallacy, we must know the original fallacy in the passage. But honestly I do not know where the passage flawed..Can anybody break down the passage and point out the flaw? Thanks.

Originally posted by Mavisdu1017 on 07 Jun 2022, 09:26.
Last edited by Mavisdu1017 on 07 Jun 2022, 09:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was writte [#permalink] New post   07 Jun 2022, 09:28
Hello expert,
To find a similar fallacy, we must know the original fallacy in the passage. But honestly I do not know where the passage flawed..Can you break down the passage and point out the flaw? Thanks.
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Re: A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was writte [#permalink] New post   07 Jun 2022, 09:47
Mavisdu1017 wrote:
Hello expert,
To find a similar fallacy, we must know the original fallacy in the passage. But honestly I do not know where the passage flawed..Can you break down the passage and point out the flaw? Thanks.

Hi Mavisdu1017,

In my opinion, the flaw here is that the editor has assumed on the basis of one data point that only two groups exist.
Editor states the fact that there are less than 5% female professors at such universities, which means, less than 1 females professor in 20 professors. But, can the editor infer on this data point that the rest of the 19 professors out of 20 are only "males"? What if there are "transgenders" or "neutrals"? This is the "flaw" in the argument. And this repeats in (E) -- restricting the entire data set to two variables on the basis of information on one element only.

Hope it helps.
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A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was writte [#permalink] New post   Updated on: 07 Jun 2022, 09:56
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Mavisdu1017 wrote:
Hello expert,
To find a similar fallacy, we must know the original fallacy in the passage. But honestly I do not know where the passage flawed..Can you break down the passage and point out the flaw? Thanks.

The editor's argument is flawed in that the editor ignored the fact that "Shirley" is a name normally given to females and not to males. So, even though fewer than five percent of professors at such universities are women, the probability that "Shirley" is a woman is greater than 5 percent.

This flaw matches the flaw in choice (E), because the author of (E) ignores the fact that mammals do not fly and considers the percentages only.

Originally posted by MartyTargetTestPrep on 07 Jun 2022, 09:55.
Last edited by MartyTargetTestPrep on 07 Jun 2022, 09:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was writte [#permalink] New post   08 Apr 2024, 09:38
A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was written and signed by a Dr. Shirley Martin who, in the text of the letter, mentions being a professor at a major North American medical school. Knowing that fewer than 5 percent of the professors at such schools are women, the editor reasons that the chances are better than 19 to 1 that the letter was written by a man.

Which one of the following involves flawed reasoning most like that used by the editor?

(A) Since 19 out of 20 home computers are purchased primarily for use with computer games, and the first computer sold today was purchased solely for word processing, the next 19 computers sold will almost certainly be used primarily for computer games. - WRONG. Exact 95% chance not equal to more than 95% chance.

(B) Fewer than 1 in 20 of the manuscripts submitted to Argon Publishing Co. are accepted for publication. Since only 15 manuscripts were submitted last week, there is almost no chance that any of them will be accepted for publication. - WRONG. Absoluteness of chance is not parallel.

(C) Fewer that 5 percent of last year’s graduating class took Latin in secondary school. Howard took Latin in secondary school, so if he had graduated last year, it is likely that one or the other Latin scholars would not have graduated. - WRONG. Chance percent changes. 

(D) More that 95 percent of the planes built by UBC last year met government standards for large airliners. Since small planes account for just under 5 percent of UBC’s output last year, it is almost certain that all their large planes met government standards. - WRONG. Like A this is also not flawed as the passage.

(E) Since more than 19 out of every 20 animals in the wildlife preserve are mammals and fewer than 1 out of 20 are birds, there is a greater than 95 percent chance that the animal Emily saw flying between two trees in the wildlife refuge yesterday morning was a mammal. - CORRECT. POE helps. Parallels the flaw of the passage.

Answer E.
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Re: A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was writte [#permalink]
08 Apr 2024, 09:38
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