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A recent survey conducted in the New Homes magazine

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A recent survey conducted in the New Homes magazine [#permalink] New post 26 Jan 2012, 18:29
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C
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Question Stats:

77% (01:55) correct 23% (01:25) wrong based on 87 sessions
A recent survey conducted in the New Homes magazine indicated that more than 70% of its readers are planning to purchase or build a new home over the next two years. Based on the results of the survey, the editor of the magazine concluded that over the next two years, the real estate industry is likely to experience rapid growth driven by the high market demand for new homes. Which of the following statements, if true, would be the most damaging to the conclusion of the magazine’s editor?
A) The survey included over 50,000 respondents representing all major age categories.
b) The survey was mailed to all the subscribers of the magazine and included prepaid postage to facilitate returning the questionnaire.
c) Readers of the New Homes magazine are much more likely to be interested in buying or purchasing a home than the rest of the public.
d) The number of the magazine’s readers has more than doubled over the past 2 years.
e) All survey respondents received one free issue of the magazine as a token of appreciation
for filling out the survey.

Can anyone justify the OA?
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA
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Re: recent survey [#permalink] New post 26 Jan 2012, 20:40
A) The survey included over 50,000 respondents representing all major age categories. - irrelevant
b) The survey was mailed to all the subscribers of the magazine and included prepaid postage to facilitate returning the questionnaire. - irrelevant
c) Readers of the New Homes magazine are much more likely to be interested in buying or purchasing a home than the rest of the public. - this actually sheds light on the characteristics of the respondents, they belong to a specific group that does not necessarily represent the whole population, and consequently cannot affirm the editor's prediction
d) The number of the magazine’s readers has more than doubled over the past 2 years. - strengthen
e) All survey respondents received one free issue of the magazine as a token of appreciation
for filling out the survey. - irrelevant
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Re: recent survey [#permalink] New post 27 Jan 2012, 08:12
When attacking a conclusion, you need to look for the assumptions that hold the conclusion up. Weaken the assumption = weaken the conclusion.

The assumption here is that the respondents of the survey are representative of the entire real estate industry. Choice C clearly shows that the small sample of respondents are not representative of the entire population, destroying the assumption which in turn seriously weakens the conclusion.
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Re: A recent survey conducted in the New Homes magazine [#permalink] New post 01 Jul 2013, 20:34
In C

Case A
lets say total population of town was 1 million and .9 million of d town people were readers of d magazine, then it strengthens d argument.

Case B
lets say total population of town was 1 million and .1 million of d town people were readers of d magazine, then it weakens d argument.

Correct me if I am wrong.
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Re: A recent survey conducted in the New Homes magazine [#permalink] New post 01 Jul 2013, 20:38
smartmanav wrote:
In C

Case A
lets say total population of town was 1 million and .9 million of d town people were readers of d magazine, then it strengthens d argument.

Case B
lets say total population of town was 1 million and .1 million of d town people were readers of d magazine, then it weakens d argument.

Correct me if I am wrong.



Yes! You are right. Logically, if your conclusion says that 70% of population would build a house in less than 2 years, the population should be sample and representative of the entire area/state. If the voters are exclusively those who read the magazine, it is quite possible that they are already reading the magazine because they wish to build a house soon.
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Re: A recent survey conducted in the New Homes magazine [#permalink] New post 01 Jul 2013, 21:57
rohitgoel15 wrote:
A recent survey conducted in the New Homes magazine indicated that more than 70% of its readers are planning to purchase or build a new home over the next two years. Based on the results of the survey, the editor of the magazine concluded that over the next two years, the real estate industry is likely to experience rapid growth driven by the high market demand for new homes. Which of the following statements, if true, would be the most damaging to the conclusion of the magazine’s editor?
A) The survey included over 50,000 respondents representing all major age categories.
b) The survey was mailed to all the subscribers of the magazine and included prepaid postage to facilitate returning the questionnaire.
c) Readers of the New Homes magazine are much more likely to be interested in buying or purchasing a home than the rest of the public.
d) The number of the magazine’s readers has more than doubled over the past 2 years.
e) All survey respondents received one free issue of the magazine as a token of appreciation
for filling out the survey.

Can anyone justify the OA?


Can someone share the reasons to eliminate other options...
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Re: A recent survey conducted in the New Homes magazine [#permalink] New post 02 Jul 2013, 09:26
jaituteja wrote:
rohitgoel15 wrote:
A recent survey conducted in the New Homes magazine indicated that more than 70% of its readers are planning to purchase or build a new home over the next two years. Based on the results of the survey, the editor of the magazine concluded that over the next two years, the real estate industry is likely to experience rapid growth driven by the high market demand for new homes. Which of the following statements, if true, would be the most damaging to the conclusion of the magazine’s editor?
A) The survey included over 50,000 respondents representing all major age categories.
b) The survey was mailed to all the subscribers of the magazine and included prepaid postage to facilitate returning the questionnaire.
c) Readers of the New Homes magazine are much more likely to be interested in buying or purchasing a home than the rest of the public.
d) The number of the magazine’s readers has more than doubled over the past 2 years.
e) All survey respondents received one free issue of the magazine as a token of appreciation
for filling out the survey.

Can anyone justify the OA?


Can someone share the reasons to eliminate other options...


Hi jaituteja.

I'm glad to elaborate.

This is a so-called representative problem. The author just base on small sample to generalize the trend. To weaken the conclusion, you just need to show the sample is not comprehensive.

ANALYZE THE STIMULUS:

Fact: A recent survey conducted in the New Homes magazine indicated that more than 70% of its readers are planning to purchase or build a new home over the next two years
Conclusion: over the next two years, the real estate industry is likely to experience rapid growth driven by the high market demand for new homes.

Clearly, the conclusion has flaw, the magazine just used data of its readers to generalize a trend. It's vague.

ANALYZE EACH ANSWER:

A) The survey included over 50,000 respondents representing all major age categories.
Wrong. It seems tempting, but it’s wrong because 50,000 respondents of the New Homes magazine CANNOT represent for all people.

B) The survey was mailed to all the subscribers of the magazine and included prepaid postage to facilitate returning the questionnaire.
Wrong. Clearly, It’s out of scope.

C) Readers of the New Homes magazine are much more likely to be interested in buying or purchasing a home than the rest of the public.
Correct. This shows the flaw because the New homes magazine’s readers are those who want to buy home than do other people ==> Clearly the conclusion of the magazine is vague.

D) The number of the magazine’s readers has more than doubled over the past 2 years.
Wrong. Out of scope. Nothing about the increase of subcribers.

E) All survey respondents received one free issue of the magazine as a token of appreciation
Wrong. Out of scope. “free issue” does not help to explain anything.

Hope it helps.
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Re: A recent survey conducted in the New Homes magazine [#permalink] New post 01 Sep 2013, 22:48
In this argument, the editor makes an inference about broad market trends based
on the results of the survey conducted in the New Homes magazine. The
argument will be weakened if it is shown that the results of the survey are not
representative of the public in general and thus cannot serve as a basis for farreaching,
market-wide conclusions.

(A) This answer choice would simply demonstrate that the survey was based on
a large sample size representative of all age groups. This information, if anything,
would support the integrity of the survey.
(B) While the approach described in this answer choice would likely facilitate
obtaining higher response rates for the survey, it provides no information that
would question the conclusion of the editor.
(C) CORRECT. This answer choice demonstrates that the data collected from
the survey are unlikely to be representative of the general population, thus
weakening the editor’s conclusion about the trend in the broad market. Naturally,
if the magazine maintains a strong focus on new homes, its readers are, by
definition, interested in buying or building a home; therefore, their responses
cannot be used to make conclusions about the overall market trends.
(D) The fact that the number of readers of the magazine has more than doubled
does nothing to weaken the argument of the editor. In fact, a greater number of
readers may indicate higher interest in real estate, thus supporting rather than
weakening the argument of the author.
(E) While receiving modest compensation for filling out the survey could
potentially increase the response rate, this factor is unlikely to affect the results of
the survey and is therefore outside the scope of the argument.
Re: A recent survey conducted in the New Homes magazine   [#permalink] 01 Sep 2013, 22:48
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