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According to some astronomers, Earth is struck by a

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According to some astronomers, Earth is struck by a [#permalink] New post 15 Mar 2011, 21:49
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Difficulty:

  55% (hard)

Question Stats:

51% (02:37) correct 49% (01:30) wrong based on 169 sessions
According to some astronomers, Earth is struck by a
meteorite large enough to cause an ice age on an
average of once every 100 million years. The last such
incident occurred nearly 100 million years ago, so we
can expect that Earth will be struck by such a meteorite
in the near future. This clearly warrants funding to
determine whether there is a means to protect our
planet from such meteorite strikes.

The reasoning in the argument is most subject to
criticism on the grounds that the argument

(A) makes a bold prescription on the basis of
evidence that establishes only a high
probability for a disastrous event
(B) presumes, without providing justification, that the
probability of a chance event’s occurring is not
affected by whether the event has occurred during
a period in which it would be expected to occur
(C) moves from evidence about the average
frequency of an event to a specific prediction
about when the next such event will occur
(D) fails to specify the likelihood that, if such a
meteorite should strike Earth, the meteorite
would indeed cause an ice age
(E) presumes, without providing justification, that
some feasible means can be found to deter
large meteorite strikes
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

Last edited by vjsharma25 on 16 Mar 2011, 02:09, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: meteorite struck once every 100 million years [#permalink] New post 15 Mar 2011, 22:01
100% A
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Re: meteorite struck once every 100 million years [#permalink] New post 15 Mar 2011, 22:06
gmat1220 wrote:
100% A

I was also that much confident when I answered this,but answers always elude us.
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Re: meteorite struck once every 100 million years [#permalink] New post 15 Mar 2011, 22:11
This is elusive ! I will consider B next.
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Re: meteorite struck once every 100 million years [#permalink] New post 15 Mar 2011, 22:34
CR is based on one word.

Earth is struck by a
meteorite large enough to cause an ice age on an
average of once every 100 million years.

gmat1220 wrote:
This is elusive ! I will consider B next.
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Re: meteorite struck once every 100 million years [#permalink] New post 15 Mar 2011, 23:17
tough one....whats oa
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Re: meteorite struck once every 100 million years [#permalink] New post 15 Mar 2011, 23:18
I think the Answer should be A:
(A) makes a bold prescription on the basis of
evidence that establishes only a high
probability for a disastrous event: The statement does use bold word- 'warrant' for his prescription based on evidence which at best indicates high probabilty based on average frequency
(B) presumes, without providing justification, that the
probability of a chance event’s occurring is not
affected by whether the event has occurred during
a period in which it would be expected to occurthe sentence doesnt do that- in fact it presumes the opposite
(C) moves from evidence about the average
frequency of an event to a specific prediction
about when the next such event will occurAuthor is not very specific in his prediction. he says near future-- Though this option is pretty close
(D) fails to specify the likelihood that, if such a
meteorite should strike Earth, the meteorite
would indeed cause an ice age The author doesnt fail to specify that- he clearly presumes that a metorite atrike will cause ice age- that's his entire source of worry!
(E) presumes, without providing justification, that
some feasible means can be found to deter
large meteorite strikesHe doesnt- he only says that funding is warranted to find out whether any way to deter is possible or not[/quote]
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Re: meteorite struck once every 100 million years [#permalink] New post 16 Mar 2011, 02:09
vivesomnium wrote:
I think the Answer should be A:
(C) moves from evidence about the average
frequency of an event to a specific prediction
about when the next such event will occurAuthor is not very specific in his prediction. he says near future-- Though this option is pretty close

I rejected this option for the same reason you have cited,use of "specific",but this is the answer.
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Re: meteorite struck once every 100 million years [#permalink] New post 17 Mar 2011, 11:58
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Initially though A but then went with C..Clear indicators are words "AVERAGE" and " Near Future "
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Re: According to some astronomers, Earth is struck by a [#permalink] New post 04 Aug 2014, 03:09
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Re: According to some astronomers, Earth is struck by a [#permalink] New post 15 Sep 2014, 09:12
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vjsharma25 wrote:
According to some astronomers, Earth is struck by a
meteorite large enough to cause an ice age on an
average of once every 100 million years. The last such
incident occurred nearly 100 million years ago, so we
can expect that Earth will be struck by such a meteorite
in the near future. This clearly warrants funding to
determine whether there is a means to protect our
planet from such meteorite strikes.

The reasoning in the argument is most subject to
criticism on the grounds that the argument

(A) makes a bold prescription on the basis of
evidence that establishes only a high
probability for a disastrous event
(B) presumes, without providing justification, that the
probability of a chance event’s occurring is not
affected by whether the event has occurred during
a period in which it would be expected to occur
(C) moves from evidence about the average
frequency of an event to a specific prediction
about when the next such event will occur
(D) fails to specify the likelihood that, if such a
meteorite should strike Earth, the meteorite
would indeed cause an ice age
(E) presumes, without providing justification, that
some feasible means can be found to deter
large meteorite strikes



Found this solution, I hope this will help us for better understanding..
According to some astronomers, Earth is struck by a
meteorite large enough to cause an ice age on an
average of once every 100 million years. The last such
incident occurred nearly 100 million years ago:
Conclusion: so we can expect that Earth will be struck by such a meteorite
in the near future. This clearly warrants funding to
determine whether there is a means to protect our
planet from such meteorite strikes.

Let's combine "So and Clearly.": Then some astronomers concludes that Earth will definately be struck by such a meteorite large enough to cause an ice age. Yet their conclusion is based on only average freuency of strikes without enough and specific evidence or data to prove it.

Analogy here: "Tom drinks a bottle of beer average of once a year. he drank one bottle of beer last year, so he will drink it in the future, which clearly warrants a strategy to determine whether there is a means to prevent him from drinking it."

Can you predict, based on average frequency of his dringking, that he will definately drink it in near future? Not really! Waht if he stops drinking it for some reasons!

(A) makes a bold prescription on the basis of
evidence that establishes only a high
probability for a disastrous event:
=in fact this describes the argument but not indicates falws.

(B) presumes, without providing justification, that the
probability of a chance event’s occurring is not
affected by whether the event has occurred during
a period in which it would be expected to occur
=180 degree to the argument.

(C) moves from evidence about the average
frequency of an event to a specific prediction
about when the next such event will occur
=Here the flaw goes.

(D) fails to specify the likelihood that, if such a
meteorite should strike Earth, the meteorite
would indeed cause an ice age
=stimulus says "large enough to cause"

(E) presumes, without providing justification, that
some feasible means can be found to deter
large meteorite strikes:
=Not warranted but opens possibility of determinig it.
Re: According to some astronomers, Earth is struck by a   [#permalink] 15 Sep 2014, 09:12
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