Hi, there. I'm happy to help with this.
I am a little perplexed your statement: "My question is related to MEANING only." You started what I would call an excellent analysis --I'll just continue that, hoping that this answers your question.
You are correct: the economists concern about the recovery not lasting is in the PRESENT, which means the surge in sales must be PRESENT PERFECT. Absolute true.
When look at the pattern of verb tenses in the answer choices, we see:
(A) present perfect
(B) past
(C) past perfect
(D) present perfect
(E) past
You mentioned that you eliminated (B) & (E) on the basis of verb tense --- very good --- I would add that we can also eliminate (C) on this basis.
That leaves (A) vs. (D)
(A)
have raised hopes that there is a recovery finally
(D)
has raised hopes that a recovery is finally
The principal difference between (A) and (D) is not verb tense but "verb number", i.e., singular or plural. We need to look at the subject:
"Although a surge in retail sales have raised hopes that there is a recovery finally under way
Notice that "in retails sales" is a prepositional phrase, so the only noun that can serve as the subject is "surge" ----> singular. This requires a singular verb:
(A) a surge . . . have raised

(D) a surge . . . has raised

Choice D has the right tense and the right number, so it's the correct choice.
Does this make sense? Did I answer your question? Please let me know if you have any further questions about what I've said here.
Mike
_________________
Mike McGarry
Magoosh Test Prep