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Any realtor currently looking for a location in which to

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Any realtor currently looking for a location in which to [#permalink] New post 22 Feb 2013, 20:33
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Any realtor currently looking for a location in which to start an agency would be wise to avoid locations where the economy is dependent on oil prices. When prices fall, some people connected to the oil industry will leave to invest in other markets. Office vacancies will increase and shops that served members of the oil industry may have to close their doors before their leases have expired. Currently, the oil industry is quite volatile.

Which of the following, if true, would most weaken the argument above?

a. Oil prices are currently less volatile than other factors that affect realtors.
b. Most cities whose economy is dependent on oil currently have a thriving real estate market.
c. Falling oil prices usually have some adverse affect on realtors in locations that don't have commercial space that is directly connected to the oil industry.
d. Realtors located in towns whose economy is oil-dependent are often among the first to recognize that the local economy has been adversely affected.
e. Some realtors benefit from being located in an area that has sudden drops in real estate value.

How can e. be the answer? How can one assume that when some people connected to the oil industry leave due to falling oil prices, the real estate value will have a sudden drop? It can be that the real estate value increases or it doesn't drop "suddenly". It seems a jump in logic to conclude that there will be sudden drops in real estate value.

I know that in a weaken arguments, you assume that the answer choices are true. So I assume that it is true that " Some realtors benefit from being located in an area that has sudden drops in real estate value." But how can I assume that it is true that a fall in oil prices will lead to a sudden drop in real estate value?

Also why can't a. be the answer? a. shows an alternate path that the realtor need not worry about oil prices since the other factors he has to worry about are more volatile making the oil factor irrelevant or unimportant.
Please help.
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Re: Any realtor currently looking for a location in which to sta [#permalink] New post 22 Feb 2013, 23:25
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gmatprep1982 wrote:
Any realtor currently looking for a location in which to start an agency would be wise to avoid locations where the economy is dependent on oil prices. When prices fall, some people connected to the oil industry will leave to invest in other markets. Office vacancies will increase and shops that served members of the oil industry may have to close their doors before their leases have expired. Currently, the oil industry is quite volatile.

Which of the following, if true, would most weaken the argument above?

a. Oil prices are currently less volatile than other factors that affect realtors.
b. Most cities whose economy is dependent on oil currently have a thriving real estate market.
c. Falling oil prices usually have some adverse affect on realtors in locations that don't have commercial space that is directly connected to the oil industry.
d. Realtors located in towns whose economy is oil-dependent are often among the first to recognize that the local economy has been adversely affected.
e. Some realtors benefit from being located in an area that has sudden drops in real estate value.

How can e. be the answer? How can one assume that when some people connected to the oil industry leave due to falling oil prices, the real estate value will have a sudden drop? It can be that the real estate value increases or it doesn't drop "suddenly". It seems a jump in logic to conclude that there will be sudden drops in real estate value.

I know that in a weaken arguments, you assume that the answer choices are true. So I assume that it is true that " Some realtors benefit from being located in an area that has sudden drops in real estate value." But how can I assume that it is true that a fall in oil prices will lead to a sudden drop in real estate value?

Also why can't a. be the answer? a. shows an alternate path that the realtor need not worry about oil prices since the other factors he has to worry about are more volatile making the oil factor irrelevant or unimportant.
Please help.


Hi gmatprep1982,

Let us first analyze the argument.

Conclusion: For any Realtor it is wise to start an agency at the location whose economy is not dependent on oil prices.
Premises:
When prices fall, some people connected to the oil industry will leave to invest in other markets.
Office spaces and shops serving oil industry members will close.
Oil industry is currently volatile.
Assumption: No Realtor can take advantage or benefit from the falling oil prices.


As you have doubt between (A) and (E), I'll discuss these choices.

A. Oil prices are currently less volatile than other factors that affect realtors.

(A) Says that oil prices are less volatile and yes the realtor may have to worry about other factors as well, but (A) will not weaken the conclusion, which states that investing in oil dependent economy is not wise. So, it is still wise not to invest in an economy that is dependent on oil prices (the dependency may be less or more.) Thus, our argument is not weakened by this answer choice.

E. Some realtors benefit from being located in an area that has sudden drops in real estate value.

Notice the word in the conclusion “any”; the conclusion says “any realtor” will not benefit from an economy. But, if “some” realtors can benefit from the drop in real estate market (which could be because of volatile oil prices), then the conclusion will be weakened. If (E) is true then the argument cannot say that for “any” realtor it will not be a wise decision to invest in an oil dependent economy; for “some” it will be wise.

Hope it helps,

Vercules
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Re: Any realtor currently looking for a location in which to [#permalink] New post 11 Apr 2013, 21:34
Why not B?

b. Most cities whose economy is dependent on oil currently have a thriving real estate market.

If the cities have a thriving real estate market and are also oil dependent, it might be better for realtors to start their business in such places..??
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Re: Any realtor currently looking for a location in which to [#permalink] New post 11 Apr 2013, 22:50
btg9788 wrote:
Why not B?

b. Most cities whose economy is dependent on oil currently have a thriving real estate market.

If the cities have a thriving real estate market and are also oil dependent, it might be better for realtors to start their business in such places..??


Hi btg9788
I'm very happy to help.

To weaken the conclusion you must show the fallacy in its logic.

What is conclusion here? "You should avoid locations where the economy is dependent on oil prices".
The premises used to support the conclusion are:
Oil prices drop >>> People connected to Oil industry will leave >>> shops will be closed, offices will be vacated. >>> Your real estates business fails.

Okay, what does it mean: OIL PRICES DROP, YOUR REAL ESTATE BUSINESS WILL FAILS; on the other hand OIL PRICES GO UP, YOUR REAL ESTATES WILL THRIVES.

Now ask yourself: B says most cities dependent on oil currently have thriving real estate market. So, what makes the market thrive? Oil prices go up? Correct. It means real estate market DEPENDS ON OIL. So, what if oil prices go down? The market still thrives? No, The market will go down either. >>> The conclusion is correct. >>> Actually, B strengthen the conclusion, not weaken.

Hope it helps.
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Re: Any realtor currently looking for a location in which to [#permalink] New post 13 Apr 2013, 06:28
Thanks!
That makes sense totally..
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Re: Any realtor currently looking for a location in which to [#permalink] New post 05 May 2013, 04:50
Before posting any question, you need to use the "search" option to find out if that question has already been discussed. If the question already exists, then put your unique question in the existing topic and do NOT start another thread on the same question.

Please read and follow the Guidelines for Posting in Verbal GMAT forum before posting anything.

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Re: Any realtor currently looking for a location in which to   [#permalink] 05 May 2013, 04:50
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