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Apocalipse or a unique oportunity

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VP
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Apocalipse or a unique oportunity [#permalink] New post 11 Oct 2008, 23:06
Ok, usually I don't like posting this kind of thing, but seeing what's going on, I'd like to have your opinions. I will show you some things:

House prices in US
Image
well by now everybody has seen this one...

TED spread (3 mths Libor vs 3 mths T-bills:

Image
Image
This Chart says: You want credit, come get it if you can...

If you see here the prices for Credit Derivatives (Index), it's very awkward to see the iTraxx Cross Over that was around a 15 months ago at 70bps at 730bps, 10 times higher...
https://www.markit.com/markit.jsp?jsppage=indices.jsp

And now a long term trend of the DJI deflated (is this the right term, I wanted to say that I took inflation out) - I prefer the S&P but I couldn't get anywhere a S&P for that long, you know, hehehehee:
Image


All this with volatility - take a look at the VIX:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX#chart4:symbol=^vix;range=19920601,20081010;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

It's either more explosive than TNT or a once in a life time buying opportunity. What side are you in?
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Re: Apocalipse or a unique oportunity [#permalink] New post 12 Oct 2008, 03:55
Kwam - I hope after the MBA I can understand everything you mentioned in that post :)
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Re: Apocalipse or a unique oportunity [#permalink] New post 15 Oct 2008, 13:37
kwam wrote:

It's either more explosive than TNT or a once in a life time buying opportunity. What side are you in?


Markets will tank further. Too early to buy.
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Re: Apocalipse or a unique oportunity [#permalink] New post 15 Oct 2008, 17:10
I agree with you trader the environment is pretty damn ugly.
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Re: Apocalipse or a unique oportunity [#permalink] New post 18 Oct 2008, 21:27
take a look at your 52 weeks lows and you might find a couple that are ridiculously cheap.

AAPL held up pretty good around $100, but its possible that markets are waiting for the earnings.

trader1, very happy to see the progress with the forum. :)
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Re: Apocalipse or a unique oportunity [#permalink] New post 19 Oct 2008, 07:31
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Beware the pre-election fake-out rally!

While everything could look cheap at the current levels, we could see the markets go down further to reflect the "real economy", i.e. increasing unemployment which will further act as a drag on the 66% of GDP consumption-led economy of the USA. Company earnings will most likely decline, and this may add further fuel for downside action. However, the market may have already discounted this, but it remains to be seen, i.e. the DOW will need to stay above the mid 7000s. As Bill Gross (the portfolio manager of the world's largest bond fund at PIMCO) has called earlier, the DOW could very well see 5000.

The most conservative thing to do in this environment would be to stay out of the markets and be in cash (but, cash that is readily available and accessible). If you must be in the market, definitely have some gold exposure, and it never hurts to be short the overall market indices (DXD, SDS) while being long a few stocks that will be around over the next 50 years, i.e. MMM, PG, KO, JNJ, K, GIS, MCD, CL.
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Re: Apocalipse or a unique oportunity [#permalink] New post 26 Nov 2008, 18:09
what may seem very cheap now might be a fortune in 9 months...

I'm still uncertain on this market!
Re: Apocalipse or a unique oportunity   [#permalink] 26 Nov 2008, 18:09
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