shasadou wrote:
Consultant: Your total revenue would increase considerably if you enrolled your employees in my weeklong training seminar that is specifically designed for your business.
Software Company Executive: Your seminars are poorly designed and a waste of money. Since 2005, the companies in my industry that have enrolled employees in your seminar have revenues that are considerably lower than those who have not enrolled employees in your seminar.
Which of the following most seriously weakens the executive’s response to the consultant?
A. 95% of the companies that enroll in the consultant’s seminar report that their revenues have increased.
B. Most of the software companies that had high revenues prior to 2005 did not enroll in the consultant’s seminar.
C. Overall sales of software since 2005 have increased dramatically.
D. The cost of developing and producing software has decreased since 2005.
E. The majority of software companies that sent employees to the consultant’s seminar have experienced a drop in revenue since 2005.
Conclusion Consultant: Program -> Revnue+
Conclusion SCE: Program -> Does not work (since it's a waist of money)
Premise SCE: revenue for employees who took the seminar is lower than for those who did not took it.
Assumption: seminar is correlated with low profits; (A causality might be implied that seminar -> low profits).
Strategy:
- We need something to weaken the correlation (x response to the same value of y might be different).
- If we thinners' of the causality, showing the following might help ( assume Program =x, Low profits = y):
1. y ->X
2. Z (other factor) ->X
3. Y happens without X / X happens without Y before it
Elimination Process:
A. 95% of the companies that enroll in the consultant’s seminar report that their revenues have increased.
- 95% of the companies might not even be in the software industry. So this answer might weaken, but this not a must.
- Lets keep it in the meanwhile.
B. Most of the software companies that had high revenues prior to 2005 did not enroll in the consultant’s seminar.
- understanding the implied implications is tricky.
- So we can take 2 extreme cases to understand the meaning in the context of the given stimulus.
- case 1: assume that most of the cases prior to 2005, that were small to begin with, enrolled into the consultant's seminar.
- This might mean that the reason for the big difference is not the seminar but the size of the company. (meaning we found a z->x).
- Case 2: assume the most companioned were big companies, this means that the companies start with a lot of revenue and then the consultants seminar might have indeed lower the companies' revenues.
C. Overall sales of software since 2005 have increased dramatically.
- Overall sales might come from a group of companies in the relevant software industry that might not be relevant to the mentioned comparison.
D. The cost of developing and producing software has decreased since 2005.
- not relevant to the assumptions.
E. The majority of software companies that sent employees to the consultant’s seminar have experienced a drop in revenue since 2005.
- This strengthens the consultants argument.