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CR: Meteorologist and atmospheric models

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CR: Meteorologist and atmospheric models [#permalink] New post 02 Dec 2005, 04:41
00:00
A
B
C
D
E

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(N/A)

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0% (00:00) correct 100% (02:01) wrong based on 0 sessions
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
12. Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?
(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.
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 [#permalink] New post 02 Dec 2005, 07:03
I would say (A) by POE. Essentially, an accurate prediction can be made without knowing it`s exact causal mechanism. There is a glitch however, we cannot predict the "causes" and when they might change due to extenuating factors.
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 [#permalink] New post 02 Dec 2005, 09:47
B.

conclusion says the improvements is:
immune to any evaluation

B shows there is a way to evaluate effect of model precision.
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 [#permalink] New post 03 Dec 2005, 13:23
OA is D and I didn't understand it.
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 [#permalink] New post 03 Dec 2005, 16:50
I would have gone with B on the exam.

D makes sense. It says that the meteorologists' claims can be evaluated.
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Re: CR: Meteorologist and atmospheric models [#permalink] New post 27 Apr 2014, 06:27
In my opinion, the correct answer should be A base on negation method attack on premise.

(A) Certain unusual configurations of data CANNOT serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.

Experts advice?
Re: CR: Meteorologist and atmospheric models   [#permalink] 27 Apr 2014, 06:27
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