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CR: Meteorologist and atmospheric models [#permalink]
02 Dec 2005, 05:41
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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
12. Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the authorâ€™s position that the meteorologistsâ€™ claim cannot be evaluated?
(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.
I would say (A) by POE. Essentially, an accurate prediction can be made without knowing it`s exact causal mechanism. There is a glitch however, we cannot predict the "causes" and when they might change due to extenuating factors.