mitul19 wrote:
chriswil2005 wrote:
I got B. This is how I got it. The prob that Darcy will sit in a soft chair=prob(arriving first)+prob(arriving second)+(0.5)prob(arriving third). If she arrives third, she will be arriving with Ray and since there will be one soft chair remaining they flip a coin for it. That is why I halfed the last term in the prob. Since we know that the prob of Gina or Susan to arrive first is 1/3 each, then the prob of Darcy and Ray to arrive first is also 1/3. From this knowledge we, can use the info in the stemn to deduce that the prob of Darcy and Ray to arrive second or last is also 1/3 for each instance. Therefore
prob of getting soft chair is 1/3+1/3+(0.5)(1/3)=5/6
The prob of Gina sitting in the soft chair, can happen only if she arrives first or second, so the prob=1-prob(arriving last)=1-1/3=2/3.
From here, use [(5/6)-(2/3)]/2/3
This equals 25% (b). I know this was very confusing, and I may not even be correct. What is the OA? If I am correct, I will try an explain it more if needed.
i have a doubt.:
I did like this:
Prob. of darcy arriving first = Prob.(Gina not arriving First) * Prob.(Susan not arriving first) = (1-1/3)(1-1/3) = 2/3*2/3 = 4/9
Can someone pls explain why this isn't correct?
Thanks in advance.
Consider that both Susan and Gina have a 1/3 chance of showing up first, and that SOMEONE will with a probability of 1 show up first, that must mean that there is 1-1/3-1/3 = 1/3 chance for the remaining 2 people, Darcy and Ray since they show up together, to show up first.
If that's not obvious, let's drill down into your 2/3*2/3 calculation.
That's saying:
(1/3+1/3)*(1/3+1/3) properly captures the probability of neither Gina or Susan being first, with the first 1/3 in each above being the probability of arriving 2nd and the 2nd 1/3 being the probability of arriving 3rd.
So multiplying the first terms above is saying that there is 1/3*1/3=1/9 chance of BOTH arriving 2nd.
We know that can't happen.
Likewise multiplying both 2nd terms together is saying there's a 1/9 chance of BOTH arriving 3rd, which we also know can't happen.
So the 4/9 has to be reduced by 2*1/9= 2/9.
But we're not finished.
Multiplying the first term above against the second term in the other parenthesis expression is saying there's a 1/9 chance of Gina arriving 2nd and Susan 3rd. Remember, we're already assuming Darcy/Ray arrive first
But that's not true. If Gina arrives 2nd there's a 100% chance Susan arrives 3rd.
So the probability of this is UNDERSTATED by 1/3-1/9=2/9.
This same understatement occurs when Susan arrives 2nd and Gina 3rd.
So we need to add 2/9+2/9=4/9
to our adjusted 2/9 we previously calculated.
This equals 6/9 or 2/3, which is the accurate number to be subtracted from 1 to determine Darcy/Ray chance of arriving 1st, and that equals
1/3
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