Debater: The average amount of overtime per month worked by an employee in the manufacturing division of the Haglut Corporation is 14 hours. Most employees of the Haglut Corporation work in the manufacturing division. Furthermore, the average amount of overtime per month worked by any employee in the company generally does not fluctuate much from month to month. Therefore, each month, most employees of the Haglut Corporation almost certainly work at least some overtime.

The debater's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on which of these grounds?

(A) It takes for granted that the manufacturing division is a typical division of the corporation with regard to the average amount of overtime its employees work each month.

(B) It takes for granted that if a certain average of amount of overtime is worked each month by each employee of the Haglut Corporation, then approximately the same amount of overtime must be worked each month by each employee of the manufacturing division.

(C) It confuses a claim from which the argument's conclusion about the Haglut Corporation would necessarily follow with a claim that would follow from the argument's conclusion only with a high degree of probability.

(D) It overlooks the possibility that even if, on average, a certain amount of overtime is worked by the members of some group, many members of that group may work no overtime at all.

(E) It overlooks the possibility that even if most employees of the corporation work some overtime each month, anyone corporate employee may, in some months, work no overtime.

Took more time to ans this question.
D for me too..

Great explanation Chris. It is really useful evn though I picked the right answer. A different opint of reasoning as well
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How can we consider Option D as correct if its only talking about "some group" but not the whole organization? Would be great if somebody can explain.

Above statement is a generic statement not specific to that organization. This statement is applicable for manufacturing group where if on average there is overtime of 14 hrs/ month doesnt mean that everyone in the manufacturing group is doing the overtime.

Thanks,
Sankalp

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I would try to cut it down by a minute at least

Sorry for beating a dead horse, but this is a very important concept. The concept of majority versus average.

Most employees working in the Manufacturing division means that at least 51% of the employees of the company work in the Manufacturing department.

The only way to conclude that "most employees in the company work some overtime, is to conclude that "everyone in the division" would have to work overtime.

Yet, the evidence merely says average, so hypothetically, employees who work over time could work 28 hours of overtime a month, meaning one employee for every 2.

The answer, D, paints that well by indicating potentially maybe many members of the group don't work overtime.

Takeaway: Understand the average versus majority concept, and how to break down "wholes"