idkksh wrote:
Declines in amphibian populations There are recent reports of apparently drastic declines in amphibian populations and of extinctions of a number of the world's endangered amphibian species. These declines, if real, may be signs of a general trend toward extinction, and many environmentalists have claimed that immediate environmental action is necessary to remedy this "amphibian crisis", which, in their view, is an indicator of general and catastrophic environmental degradation due to human activity.
To evaluate these claims, it is useful to make a preliminary distinction that is far too often ignored. A declining population should not be confused with an endangered one. An endangered population is always rare, almost always small, and, by definition, under constant threat of extinction even without a proximate cause in human activities. Its disappearance, however unfortunate, should come as no great surprise. Moreover, chance events—which may indicate nothing about the direction of trends in population size—may lead to its extinction. The probability of extinction due to such random factors depends on the population size and is independent of the prevailing direction of change in that size.
For biologists, population declines are potentially more worrisome than extinctions. Persistent declines, especially in large populations, indicate a changed ecological context. Even here, distinctions must again be made among declines that are only apparent (in the sense that they are part of habitual cycles or of normal fluctuations), declines that take a population to some lower but still acceptable level, and those that threaten extinction (e.g., by taking the number of individuals below the minimum viable population). Anecdotal reports of population decreases cannot distinguish among these possibilities, and some amphibian populations have shown strong fluctuations in the past.
It is Indisputably true that there is simply not enough long-term scientific data on amphibian populations to enable researches to identify real declines in amphibian populations. Many fairly common amphibian species declared all but extinct after severe declines in the 1950s and 1960s have subsequently recovered, and so might the apparently declining populations that have generated the current appearance of an amphibian crisis. Unfortunately, long-term data will not soon be forthcoming, and postponing environmental action while we wait for it may doom species and whole ecosystems to extinction.
3. It can be inferred from the passage that the author believes which of the following to be true of the amphibian extinctions that have recently been reported?
(A) They have resulted primarily from human activities causing environmental degradation.
(B)They could probably have been prevented if timely action had been taken to protect the habitats of amphibian species.
(C) They should not come as a surprise, because amphibian populations generally have been declining for a number of years.
(D) They have probably been caused by a combination of chance events.
(E) They do not clearly constitute evidence of general environmental degradation.
Passage: Amphibian PopulationsQuestion: Inference–ExtinctionsThe Simple StoryAccording to reports, certain amphibian populations are undergoing drastic decline or even extinction. Environmentalists believe that these changes are due to human activity. The passage explains how to evaluate these claims. First, it draws a distinction between a declining population and an endangered population. Then, it explains that a decline may be worse than an extinction, but may also be harmless. Finally, it concludes that there is not enough data to determine whether the amphibian population is actually declining, and whether that decline represents a crisis. However, since there is limited data, and inaction could cause serious problems, the passage argues that people should still act to protect the amphibians.
Sample Passage MapHere is one way to map this passage. (Note: abbreviate as desired!)
P1:
- Amph declines & extinctions: bad sign?
- Env.: action needed, declines caused by humans
P2:
- Evaluate env. Claims
- Decline doesn’t = endangered
P3:
- Declines worse than extinctions
- But, some declines are okay
P4:
- Limited data
- Don’t know if amphibians are really declining?
- But: should take action now anyways
Step 1: Identify the QuestionThe word
inferred in the question stem indicates that this is an
Inference question.
Step 2: Find the SupportThe entire passage deals with the amphibian extinctions, and with the author’s views on population decline and extinction. Check the answer choices to see if they provide more guidance on where to find the answer. The answer choices seem to represent general claims about the author’s beliefs, so review your passage map briefly and be prepared to find support in various places in the passage.
Step 3: Predict an AnswerIt’s difficult to predict a specific answer to this question, since the author makes a number of statements about the extinctions and about extinctions in general. Focus on eliminating answer choices that don’t match the author’s claims.
Step 4: Eliminate and Find a Match(A) This is the viewpoint of the environmentalists mentioned in the first paragraph, not of the author. The author agrees with the environmentalists that action should be taken, but does not commit to a specific viewpoint on why (or even whether) the declines occurred.
(B) The author calls for environmental action in this passage, but does not specify whether this action would involve protecting amphibian habitats.
(C) The author does state that the extinction of an endangered species is not a surprise. However, the author does not apply this statement to amphibians, and in fact, the amphibian population decline is described as recent.
(D) The author states that chance events can lead to extinction. However, the author does not speculate on whether this is true in the case of the amphibians. It most likely is not, since the author claims that chance events can lead to extinction specifically in the case of endangered species, and does not state that the amphibians were previously endangered.
(E) CORRECT. The environmentalists mentioned in the first paragraph claim that the “amphibian crisis”…is an indicator of general and catastrophic environmental degradation due to human activity. However, the author states that declines can have multiple causes, and that in the case of the amphibians, there is
too little data to distinguish between these causes.
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