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Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial

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Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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Despite the approach of winter, oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so. Therefore, unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.

Which of the following, if true, provides the most support for the conclusion above?
 
(A) Long-term weather forecasts predict a mild winter.
(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
(C) The largest sources of supply for both oil and natural gas are in subtropical regions unlikely to be affected by winter weather.
(D) The fuel requirements of industrial users of natural gas are not seriously affected by the weather.
(E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

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Re: Despite the approach of winter [#permalink]

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New post 02 Oct 2012, 15:16
I went with C but the OA is B.. Any explanations...
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Re: Despite the approach of winter [#permalink]

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abhishekkpv wrote:
I went with C but the OA is B.. Any explanations...


The argument clearly states that "unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low", So it is possible that if the winter is sever the price can change, which cannot be justified by option C

Premise 1 - Despite the approach of winter, oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so.
Conclusion - unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.

Any option which link the premise and conclusion is our answer i.e. here it should link oil with natural Gas

Option B does the job perfectly.

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Re: Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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(A) Long-term weather forecasts predict a mild winter => doesn't attach the premise " unless the winter is especially severe"
(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
(C) The largest sources of supply for both oil and natural gas are in subtropical regions unlikely to be affected by winter weather. -> therefore, the severe weather has no impact on price => against conclusion that unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.
(D) The fuel requirements of industrial users of natural gas are not seriously affected by the weather => go against conclusion " unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low."
(E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas. => talk about oil price, not natural gas price
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Re: Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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First off, I want to stress that this question is actually not MUst-be-true one. It is actually a 'Straighten' question type.
As for the question, the correct answer is B

Premise-Despite the approach of winter, oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so.
Conclusion -Therefore, unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.

Even if u cant understand which one is the conclusion by simply reading the argument, the word "therefore" is a great indicator of having a conclusion.
So, if u see that a sentence begins with the word "therefore", be sure that this sentence is a conclusion.

As we can see the premise says about the oil prices, but the conclusion is made about the gas prices. So, we have some logical gap between these two. In order to link these two sentence, we need an answer choice, that will have this link and by doing so, will definitely strengthen the passage above.

answer choice B states that the industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
the answer choice links gas with oil. it means that if the oil prices are low, the gas prices will also be low.
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Re: Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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New post 13 Oct 2012, 21:22
This is a nice CR +1 to the poster....!
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Re: Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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New post 08 Nov 2012, 03:22
Chose C but now can see why B is correct.
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Re: Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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Re: Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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PREMISE: Despite the approach of winter, oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so.

CONCLUSION: Therefore, unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.


From what I understand, it means - Oil prices are low, therefore the natural gas prices are low. (unless there's severe winter)

So it means both the prices work in unison unless there's severe winter. So the SEVERE WINTER must introduce some irregularity. Right?

E states the irregularity.
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gauravkaushik8591 wrote:
PREMISE: Despite the approach of winter, oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so.

CONCLUSION: Therefore, unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.


From what I understand, it means - Oil prices are low, therefore the natural gas prices are low. (unless there's severe winter)

So it means both the prices work in unison unless there's severe winter. So the SEVERE WINTER must introduce some irregularity. Right?

E states the irregularity.


Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.

Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.

So we are concluding that since oil prices are low, natural gas prices will remain low too. How can we strengthen the conclusion? In some way, we need to establish that gas prices will stay low if winters are not overly severe.

(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
This tells us that if gas prices go up, users will switch to the cheaper oil. If this happens, gas prices will go down again. Hence, if oil prices stay low, gas prices will stay low too.
This helps strengthen our conclusion.

(E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.
This doesn't explain the relation between oil and gas prices and hence doesn't strengthen our conclusion.
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Last edited by VeritasPrepKarishma on 15 May 2016, 21:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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New post 24 Jul 2015, 21:50
Hello from the GMAT Club VerbalBot!

Thanks to another GMAT Club member, I have just discovered this valuable topic, yet it had no discussion for over a year. I am now bumping it up - doing my job. I think you may find it valuable (esp those replies with Kudos).

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Re: Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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New post 25 Jul 2015, 04:12
Answer is B. Easy pickings! 8-)
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Re: Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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New post 15 May 2016, 06:01
VeritasPrepKarishma wrote:
gauravkaushik8591 wrote:
PREMISE: Despite the approach of winter, oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so.

CONCLUSION: Therefore, unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.


From what I understand, it means - Oil prices are low, therefore the natural gas prices are low. (unless there's severe winter)

So it means both the prices work in unison unless there's severe winter. So the SEVERE WINTER must introduce some irregularity. Right?

E states the irregularity.


Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.

Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.

So we are concluding that since oil prices are low, natural gas prices will remain low too. How can we strengthen the conclusion? In some way, we need to establish that gas prices will stay low if winters are not overly severe.

(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
This tells us that if gas prices go up, users will switch to the cheaper oil. If this happens, oil prices will go down again. Hence, if oil prices stay low, gas prices will stay low too.
This helps strengthen our conclusion.

(E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.
This doesn't explain the relation between oil and gas prices and hence doesn't strengthen our conclusion.


I think you mean gas prices will go down again as a result of users shifting to oil
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Re: Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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New post 15 May 2016, 21:14
Expert's post
tsatomic wrote:
VeritasPrepKarishma wrote:
gauravkaushik8591 wrote:
PREMISE: Despite the approach of winter, oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so.

CONCLUSION: Therefore, unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.


From what I understand, it means - Oil prices are low, therefore the natural gas prices are low. (unless there's severe winter)

So it means both the prices work in unison unless there's severe winter. So the SEVERE WINTER must introduce some irregularity. Right?

E states the irregularity.


Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.

Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.


So we are concluding that since oil prices are low, natural gas prices will remain low too. How can we strengthen the conclusion? In some way, we need to establish that gas prices will stay low if winters are not overly severe.

(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
This tells us that if gas prices go up, users will switch to the cheaper oil. If this happens, oil prices will go down again. Hence, if oil prices stay low, gas prices will stay low too.
This helps strengthen our conclusion.

(E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.
This doesn't explain the relation between oil and gas prices and hence doesn't strengthen our conclusion.


I think you mean gas prices will go down again as a result of users shifting to oil


Yes, thanks for pointing out. Edited.
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Re: Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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New post 19 Jun 2016, 08:03
(Premise 1) Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.
(Option A or B or C or D or E) This option will connect the first premise to the conclusion and strengthen the argument as a whole
(Conclusion) If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.

Lets analyse option E first
(Premise 1) Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.
(Option E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.
If Oil distribution is severely affected by severe winter then oil price will naturally go up. demand and supply.
But Premise states that Oil prices are low and are likely to stay so. Hence oil distribution is not going to be affected. Meaning winters are not going to be severe. Even if winter is severe, it makes no difference to gas distribution because gas distribution is not affected by severe winter.
Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.
Option E connects the premise and conclusion nicely.

Lets check B

Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.
(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
If there are 500 oil user and 500 gas user, and if all 500 gas user switches to oil, then oil price will go up. So if winter is severe or if winter is not severe, it does not makes a 2 cent difference to anyone because half of the industries are using oil and oil price is unlikely to change and other half will quickly change to oil because they have the capabilities to do so.
Now how is this option connecting the premise and conclusion ????
Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.
even if winter is severe, gas price will remain unaffected because no one is using gas. remember the 500 industry who use gas can switch to oil
Option B neither strengthen our conclusion nor it connects the premise to the conclusion.

How can Option B be the right answer ????
WHAT AM I MISSING?

Can anyone explain this question using other easy real life examples.


VeritasPrepKarishma wrote:
gauravkaushik8591 wrote:
PREMISE: Despite the approach of winter, oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so.

CONCLUSION: Therefore, unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.


From what I understand, it means - Oil prices are low, therefore the natural gas prices are low. (unless there's severe winter)

So it means both the prices work in unison unless there's severe winter. So the SEVERE WINTER must introduce some irregularity. Right?

E states the irregularity.


Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.

Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.

So we are concluding that since oil prices are low, natural gas prices will remain low too. How can we strengthen the conclusion? In some way, we need to establish that gas prices will stay low if winters are not overly severe.

(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
This tells us that if gas prices go up, users will switch to the cheaper oil. If this happens, gas prices will go down again. Hence, if oil prices stay low, gas prices will stay low too.
This helps strengthen our conclusion.

(E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.
This doesn't explain the relation between oil and gas prices and hence doesn't strengthen our conclusion.

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Re: Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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New post 19 Jun 2016, 08:06
(Premise 1) Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.
(Option A or B or C or D or E) This option will connect the first premise to the conclusion and strengthen the argument as a whole
(Conclusion) If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.

Lets analyse option E first
(Premise 1) Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.
(Option E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.
If Oil distribution is severely affected by severe winter then oil price will naturally go up. demand and supply.
But Premise states that Oil prices are low and are likely to stay so. Hence oil distribution is not going to be affected. Meaning winters are not going to be severe. Even if winter is severe, it makes no difference to gas distribution because gas distribution is not affected by severe winter.
Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.
Option E connects the premise and conclusion nicely.

Lets check B

Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.
(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
If there are 500 oil user and 500 gas user, and if all 500 gas user switches to oil, then oil price will go up. So if winter is severe or if winter is not severe, it does not makes a 2 cent difference to anyone because half of the industries are using oil and oil price is unlikely to change and other half will quickly change to oil because they have the capabilities to do so.
Now how is this option connecting the premise and conclusion ????
Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.
even if winter is severe, gas price will remain unaffected because no one is using gas. remember the 500 industry who use gas can switch to oil
Option B neither strengthen our conclusion nor it connects the premise to the conclusion.

How can Option B be the right answer ????
WHAT AM I MISSING?

Can anyone explain this question using other easy real life examples.


VeritasPrepKarishma wrote:
gauravkaushik8591 wrote:
PREMISE: Despite the approach of winter, oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so.

CONCLUSION: Therefore, unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.


From what I understand, it means - Oil prices are low, therefore the natural gas prices are low. (unless there's severe winter)

So it means both the prices work in unison unless there's severe winter. So the SEVERE WINTER must introduce some irregularity. Right?

E states the irregularity.


Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.

Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.

So we are concluding that since oil prices are low, natural gas prices will remain low too. How can we strengthen the conclusion? In some way, we need to establish that gas prices will stay low if winters are not overly severe.

(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
This tells us that if gas prices go up, users will switch to the cheaper oil. If this happens, gas prices will go down again. Hence, if oil prices stay low, gas prices will stay low too.
This helps strengthen our conclusion.

(E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.
This doesn't explain the relation between oil and gas prices and hence doesn't strengthen our conclusion.

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New post 19 Jun 2016, 22:04
Expert's post
LogicGuru1 wrote:
(Premise 1) Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.
(Option A or B or C or D or E) This option will connect the first premise to the conclusion and strengthen the argument as a whole
(Conclusion) If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.

Lets analyse option E first
(Premise 1) Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.
(Option E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.
If Oil distribution is severely affected by severe winter then oil price will naturally go up. demand and supply.
But Premise states that Oil prices are low and are likely to stay so. Hence oil distribution is not going to be affected. Meaning winters are not going to be severe. Even if winter is severe, it makes no difference to gas distribution because gas distribution is not affected by severe winter.
Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.
Option E connects the premise and conclusion nicely.

Lets check B

Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.
(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
If there are 500 oil user and 500 gas user, and if all 500 gas user switches to oil, then oil price will go up. So if winter is severe or if winter is not severe, it does not makes a 2 cent difference to anyone because half of the industries are using oil and oil price is unlikely to change and other half will quickly change to oil because they have the capabilities to do so.
Now how is this option connecting the premise and conclusion ????
Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.
even if winter is severe, gas price will remain unaffected because no one is using gas. remember the 500 industry who use gas can switch to oil
Option B neither strengthen our conclusion nor it connects the premise to the conclusion.

How can Option B be the right answer ????
WHAT AM I MISSING?

Can anyone explain this question using other easy real life examples.


VeritasPrepKarishma wrote:
gauravkaushik8591 wrote:
PREMISE: Despite the approach of winter, oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so.

CONCLUSION: Therefore, unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.


From what I understand, it means - Oil prices are low, therefore the natural gas prices are low. (unless there's severe winter)

So it means both the prices work in unison unless there's severe winter. So the SEVERE WINTER must introduce some irregularity. Right?

E states the irregularity.


Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.

Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.

So we are concluding that since oil prices are low, natural gas prices will remain low too. How can we strengthen the conclusion? In some way, we need to establish that gas prices will stay low if winters are not overly severe.

(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
This tells us that if gas prices go up, users will switch to the cheaper oil. If this happens, gas prices will go down again. Hence, if oil prices stay low, gas prices will stay low too.
This helps strengthen our conclusion.

(E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.
This doesn't explain the relation between oil and gas prices and hence doesn't strengthen our conclusion.


Notice what has been given as a premise and what is the conclusion.

Premise: Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.
(Should be taken as true). Oil prices are likely to remain low. Reasons could be many - new oil fields, changes in import restrictions etc. So it implies that irrespective of the demand situation this year, oil prices would likely remain low.

Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.
Why will natural gas prices see downward pressure too assuming winters are normal? One might assume that gas prices in winters would go up because of excess demand but there would be some element putting downward pressure on gas prices.

(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
If there are 500 oil user and 500 gas user, and if all 500 gas user switches to oil, then oil price will go up. - Not correct. We are given that oil prices are likely to remain low. So it doesn't matter whether the demand goes up or not.
The point is that extra demand of oil will not push up its prices so people might shift to oil. This will decrease the demand of gas and that will put downward pressure on its price. Hence gas prices are expected to stay low too.

This is the correct answer.

(E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.
This is out of scope for us. Note the conclusion: "if winter is not severe ..."
We are not talking about what happens if winter is severe. The scope of our argument is only what happens if the winter is not severe.
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Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial [#permalink]

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New post 19 Jun 2016, 23:50
Quote:
Notice what has been given as a premise and what is the conclusion.

Premise: Oil prices to industrial customers are low this year and likely to remain so.
(Should be taken as true). Oil prices are likely to remain low. Reasons could be many - new oil fields, changes in import restrictions etc. So it implies that irrespective of the demand situation this year, oil prices would likely remain low.

Conclusion: If winter is not severe, natural gas price will also remain low.
Why will natural gas prices see downward pressure too assuming winters are normal? One might assume that gas prices in winters would go up because of excess demand but there would be some element putting downward pressure on gas prices.

(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
If there are 500 oil user and 500 gas user, and if all 500 gas user switches to oil, then oil price will go up. - Not correct. We are given that oil prices are likely to remain low. So it doesn't matter whether the demand goes up or not.
The point is that extra demand of oil will not push up its prices so people might shift to oil. This will decrease the demand of gas and that will put downward pressure on its price. Hence gas prices are expected to stay low too.

This is the correct answer.

(E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.
This is out of scope for us. Note the conclusion: "if winter is not severe ..."
We are not talking about what happens if winter is severe. The scope of our argument is only what happens if the winter is not severe.



Again not convinced by the answer.
Lets add the option that is suppose to strengthen the answer and see how the entire argument pans out.
Premise 1 (Option B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
Premise 2 (Given) Oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so
Conclusion (Given) Therefore, unless the winter is especially severe,the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.
Makes sense :- Not at all. Not in a million years. I have to make unwarranted assumption in the most contrived manner. I have to think about demand and supply. I have to assume that what portion of industries is oil use and what portion of industries is gas user. I am forced to take a leap of deliberate what if and what if not...

Premise 1 (Option E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.
Meaning there is a GREATER chance that supply of oil is affected by bad weather. THERE IS ALSO A SMALLER CHANCE THAT DISTRIBUTION OF NATURAL GAS MIGHT GET AFFECTED BY BAD WEATHER. IT DOES NOT SAY ANYWHERE THAT CHANCES OF DISTRIBUTION OF GAS BEING AFFECTED ARE ZERO. If severe winter occurs, Gas distribution can be affected although to a lower degree. IT IS LESS LIKELY BIT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
Premise 2 (Given) Oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so
Conclusion (Given) Therefore, unless the winter is especially severe,the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.
Make sense :- yes perfect sense. Do i have to make assumptions. NOPE.
The Option tells me that there is a chance however small, however farfetched that gas supply can be affected by extremely harsh and severe winter. Also notice how the argument excludes oil prices from the conclusion to avoid negating the premise 2. See the beauty of the argument. P==>Q==>(negated R as a coclusion)

Use Option E and see how the argument is not flawed anymore.

B is a TYPO at best or a deliberate prank at worst.
Did anyone tried to double check and make sure that the answer is not a misprint because using logic one cannot reach B as the answer.
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Despite the approach of winter oil prices to industrial   [#permalink] 19 Jun 2016, 23:50
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