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Each year, an official estimate of the stock of cod in the

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Director
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Each year, an official estimate of the stock of cod in the [#permalink]

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04 Mar 2005, 12:57
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Each year, an official estimate of the stock of cod in the Grand Banks is announced. This estimate is obtained by averaging two separate estimates of how many cod are available, one based on the number of cod caught by research vessels during a once-yearly sampling of the area and the other on the average number of tons of cod caught by various commercial vessels per unit of fishing effort expended there in the past yearâ€”a unit of fishing effort being one kilometer of net set out in the water for one hour. In previous decades, the two estimates usually agreed closely. However, for the last decade the estimate based on commercial tonnage has been increasing markedly, by about the same amount as the sampling-based estimate has been decreasing.
18. If the statements in the passage are true, which one of the following is most strongly supported by them?
(A) Last yearâ€™s official estimate was probably not much different from the official estimate ten years ago.
(B) The number of commercial vessels fishing for cod in the Grand Banks has increased substantially over the past decade.
(C) The sampling-based estimate is more accurate than the estimate based on commercial tonnage in that the data on which it relies is less likely to be inaccurate.
(D) The once-yearly sampling by research vessels should be used as the sole basis for arriving at the official estimate of the stock of cod.
(E) Twenty years ago, the overall stock of cod in the Grand Banks was officially estimated to be much larger than it is estimated to be today.
19. Which one of the following, if true, most helps to account for the growing discrepancy between the estimate based on commercial tonnage and the research-based estimate?
(A) Fishing vessels often exceed their fishing quotas for cod and therefore often underreport the number of tons of cod that they catch.
(B) More survey vessels are now involved in the yearly sampling effort than were involved 10 years ago.
(C) Improvements in technology over the last 10 years have allowed commercial fishing vessels to locate and catch large schools of cod more easily.
(D) Survey vessels count only those cod caught during a 30-day survey period, whereas commercial dishing vessels report all cod caught during the course of a year.
(E) Because of past overfishing of cod, fewer fishing vessels now catch the maximum tonnage of cod each vessel is allowed by law to catch.
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04 Mar 2005, 13:25
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A) because decade = 10 years and the weight of the averages changes antiproportional. hence the overal average nearly doesnt change

C) i think this is clear
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04 Mar 2005, 13:37
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"A" and "E"...

"A".....if both numbers were say 20 and 20...avg is 20....both go down by say 2....so now 18 and 22...ang is still 20

"E".....if overfishing happened then there r less fishes to catch for the survey boats and as lesser commercial vessels r working to their max then output / unit of fisihing is increasing
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04 Mar 2005, 13:40
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18.A.. averages remain the same.. as the passage says that the same rate of increase and decrease.

19. i am not sure .
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04 Mar 2005, 13:41
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The passage says that wherever the research sampling is done the cod pool is becoming smaller but at the same time it is increasing in those areas where commercial vessels are fishing.

For the first question - 'B' - Since the number of commercial vessels have increased substantially over the past decade they can cover a wider range thereby covering areas where the research vessels do not cover.

For the second question 'D' - The research sampling is done only for a 30 day period so this could be a period which is a pre-breeding period and hence the discrepancy.
I eliminated 'C' because this mentions only about commercial fishing vessels but does not mention anything about the research vessels - the same technology improvement could have been used by research vessels. 'D' mentions that survey vessels sampling is only for a 30-day period whereas commercial vessels reporting is based on a year round calculation so I opt for 'D'
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04 Mar 2005, 13:49
banerjeea_98 wrote:
"A" and "E"...

"A".....if both numbers were say 20 and 20...avg is 20....both go down by say 2....so now 18 and 22...ang is still 20

"E".....if overfishing happened then there r less fishes to catch for the survey boats and as lesser commercial vessels r working to their max then output / unit of fisihing is increasing

E) but when fewer vessels catch more fisch, then the average of the research vessels should be greater than before. the fact that there are fewer fish now affects both surveys.
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04 Mar 2005, 13:53
The passage says that wherever the research sampling is done the cod pool is becoming smaller but at the same time it is increasing in those areas where commercial vessels are fishing.

For the first question - 'B' - Since the number of commercial vessels have increased substantially over the past decade they can cover a wider range thereby covering areas where the research vessels do not cover.

For the second question 'D' - The research sampling is done only for a 30 day period so this could be a period which is a pre-breeding period and hence the discrepancy.
I eliminated 'C' because this mentions only about commercial fishing vessels but does not mention anything about the research vessels - the same technology improvement could have been used by research vessels. 'D' mentions that survey vessels sampling is only for a 30-day period whereas commercial vessels reporting is based on a year round calculation so I opt for 'D'

D) but the fact that the period is different doesnt explain the discrepancy, because the periods were different before
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04 Mar 2005, 14:13
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I have B and C
For the second question, D cannot be it because if the evaluation period was the issue, then the problem would also have been present 10 years ago and the discrepancy would then not be explained.
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04 Mar 2005, 14:18
Can somebody explain the stem and whatever answer they choose. Christoph , I haven't understood your point for 1st question about decade. Can u illustrate it plz?
S
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04 Mar 2005, 14:32
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A.
Say, 10 years ago, i.e. a decade ago the commercial catch was 20 and Survey catch was 15, the estimate would have been 20+15/2.
Based on the stem, last year, the end of the decade, the numbers would have been 30 and 5 respectively and the estimate 30 + 5 / 2.
I was initially considering B, but based on the stem B may or may not be true.

C.

All other things being equal, this choice gives a reason for the increased catch by commercial guys.
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04 Mar 2005, 14:36
prep_gmat wrote:
A.
Say, 10 years ago, i.e. a decade ago the commercial catch was 20 and Survey catch was 15, the estimate would have been 20+15/2.
Based on the stem, last year, the end of the decade, the numbers would have been 30 and 5 respectively and the estimate 30 + 5 / 2.
I was initially considering B, but based on the stem B may or may not be true.

Again, hit by one of those absolute/relative number questions. Nice explanation for 1-A
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Last edited by Paul on 04 Mar 2005, 14:41, edited 1 time in total.
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04 Mar 2005, 14:40
Quote:
the estimate based on commercial tonnage has been increasing markedly, by about the same amount as the sampling-based estimate has been decreasing

This is where the key lies for prep_gmat's explanation
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04 Mar 2005, 14:41
I am still not getting it. So are you assuming the total catch was same 10years ago and now?
S
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04 Mar 2005, 14:45
This is the key to your question

Quote:
This estimate is obtained by averaging two separate estimates of how many cod are available

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04 Mar 2005, 15:17
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Agree with A and C.

For the first one, is one number is increased by the same amount as the other number is decreased, then there average would be the same.

For the second question:

(A) Fishing vessels often exceed their fishing quotas for cod and therefore often underreport the number of tons of cod that they catch.
If this is true the estimate based on commercial vessel should be smaller.

(B) More survey vessels are now involved in the yearly sampling effort than were involved 10 years ago.
This may ensure the estimate may become more accurate, but can't explain why the estimated number is decreased.

(C) Improvements in technology over the last 10 years have allowed commercial fishing vessels to locate and catch large schools of cod more easily.
This explains why numbers based on commercial vessels have increased.

(D) Survey vessels count only those cod caught during a 30-day survey period, whereas commercial dishing vessels report all cod caught during the course of a year.
This still doesn't explain why the numbers for the 30-day period have decreased while the numbers for the entire year have increased.

(E) Because of past overfishing of cod, fewer fishing vessels now catch the maximum tonnage of cod each vessel is allowed by law to catch.
If this is true then numbers based on commercial vessels should have decreased.

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04 Mar 2005, 16:25
Hold on guys, "C" for #2...how can we explain the number decreasing for the survey vessels, yes we can explain abt the commercial vessel, but stem says that number decreases by the same amt for survey vessels, how can we explain this using C....don't see how C can be the OA ? Anyone ?
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04 Mar 2005, 16:50
christoph wrote:
D) but the fact that the period is different doesnt explain the discrepancy, because the periods were different before

Christoph, Yes you may be right the periods were different before but I am not totally convinced with 'C' either becos we will have to make an assumption that technology improvements were not made for research vessels.
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04 Mar 2005, 23:29
Quote:
(C) Improvements in technology over the last 10 years have allowed commercial fishing vessels to locate and catch large schools of cod more easily

Only commercial vessels are affected while research vessels are not.
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07 Mar 2005, 08:30
Paul wrote:
Quote:
(C) Improvements in technology over the last 10 years have allowed commercial fishing vessels to locate and catch large schools of cod more easily

Only commercial vessels are affected while research vessels are not.

Thanks Paul.
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07 Mar 2005, 08:51
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(18)

(A) Last yearâ€™s official estimate was probably not much different from the official estimate ten years ago.
- A it is. Last year's official estimate would see the marked difference between the two estimates, as it would have been observed over the past ten years ('for the last decade....')

(B) The number of commercial vessels fishing for cod in the Grand Banks has increased substantially over the past decade.
- We can't tell if the number of commercial vessels are increasing, all we know is that the tons of cod caught per fishing effort is increasing. B is out.

(C) The sampling-based estimate is more accurate than the estimate based on commercial tonnage in that the data on which it relies is less likely to be inaccurate.
- Out of scope. No information about accuracy.C is out.

(D) The once-yearly sampling by research vessels should be used as the sole basis for arriving at the official estimate of the stock of cod.
- Again, an issue of accuracy. D is out.

(E) Twenty years ago, the overall stock of cod in the Grand Banks was officially estimated to be much larger than it is estimated to be today.
- We don't know if th everall stock of cod in the banks are much larger in the past than it is today. We only know there is a marked difference in the two estimates.

(19)

(A) Fishing vessels often exceed their fishing quotas for cod and therefore often underreport the number of tons of cod that they catch.
- Not sure how this would explain the marked difference between the two estimates.

(B) More survey vessels are now involved in the yearly sampling effort than were involved 10 years ago.
- If so, it would only improve the accuracy of the sampling-based estimate and tells us nothing about the discrepancy

(C) Improvements in technology over the last 10 years have allowed commercial fishing vessels to locate and catch large schools of cod more easily.
- Tells us more fish is caught which explained the increase in commerical estimate, and therefore the decrease in sampling estimate.

D) Survey vessels count only those cod caught during a 30-day survey period, whereas commercial dishing vessels report all cod caught during the course of a year.
- Only highlights the accuracy of the data and nothing about the difference in estimates.

(E) Because of past overfishing of cod, fewer fishing vessels now catch the maximum tonnage of cod each vessel is allowed by law to catch.
- Tells us nothing except more fishing vessels are now catching less than the maximum tonnage of cod. It still doesn't explain the discrepancy and in fact this choice should be out because we know that the commercial estimate is rising and this should be due to more cod being caught.

(A) and (C) for me.

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