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Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably

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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 20 Jan 2013, 00:24
(B) is the correct answer, and there is in fact no uncertainty about it. I’ll try to explain why.

First of all, it is really important to realize that for most assumption questions (not all), there are many assumptions, not one. That is, there are many different additional pieces of information that are needed in order to really prove the conclusion, but that were left out of the argument. This question is definitely of that type. Here are a few of the things that are not mentioned, but that have to be true (that is, the assumptions) in order to prove the conclusion:

- American paper manufacturers won’t buy so much of the American wood pulp that there is not much left for export.
- Japanese and European manufacturers are not ALREADY buying as much American wood pulp as the US can export.
- There is no characteristic or limitation of American wood pulp that would prevent Japanese and European manufacturers from using it, even though it would cost them less if they did. (Note that answer choice (B) is part of this one.)

In this kind of assumption question, the correct answer is one of the things that NEEDS to be true in order to prove the conclusion - but this answer is not ENOUGH BY ITSELF to prove the conclusion. In LSAT language, the correct answer is necessary in order for the conclusion to be true, but not sufficient.

So although it is true that (B) does not prove the conclusion, that doesn’t make it the wrong answer. (B) does have to be true in order to allow the conclusion to be even possible, and that makes it a necessary assumption, and therefore the right answer. Because we are looking for a necessary assumption, the “denial test” works for this question, as several people have already pointed out. The denial test works by contradicting the answer choice, and then seeing whether the CONTRADICTED version makes the conclusion impossible. If the contradicted answer choice makes the conclusion impossible, then the UNcontradicted answer choice must have been necessary in order to allow the conclusion. Thus, the uncontradicted answer choice must have been a necessary assumption.

The other choices are not necessary in order to allow the conclusion to be true:

A: They do not have to produce more paper in order to make American pulp exports go up. They could produce the same amount, but buy a lot more American pulp and a lot less of other countries’ pulp to do it.

C: They don’t have to prefer American pulp at an EQUAL price (or ignoring price) in order to make American pulp exports go up. We know from the evidence that American pulp will be really cheap. In order to make the exports go up, they only need to be willing to buy it AT THIS REALLY CHEAP PRICE.

D: I don’t think this one fooled anybody. It would be a reason NOT to buy more pulp from anyone, American or otherwise.

E: Production of American wood pulp does NOT have to stay at its present level in order to make exports go up. In fact, if the US is not able to increase its production of wood pulp, that might PREVENT wood pulp exports from going up. This one (like choice D) actually hurts the argument rather than helping it. The moral of this story is – every time you see the word “not”, make sure you know which way the statement is going.
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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 25 Jan 2013, 23:45
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Answer is Choice B

A) Not Relevant

B) Demand will be increased if the price falls and it is usable for the japanese …. Manufacturers. Correct.

C) This choice attributes the quality of wood pulp to the demand generated for it. However it is difficult to find support for this from the passage. So incorrect

D) Incorrect. When the demand doesn't increase if it remained same then the conclusion might hold true but if it drcreased then conclusion would be weakened.

E)Not relevant
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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 22 Oct 2013, 04:41
Conclusion: Author claims that the export of US wood pulp will increase a lot during the current year.
Premise: Falling value of dollar will make US pulp cheaper than pulp from anywhere else

Find the assumption - i.e. some NEW information that MUST be true for the conclusion to be true.

Pre-think assumptions - what HAS to be true? Some thoughts: 1. the dollar must fall quick enough for results to yield quickly 2. there must be demand from western and jap producers 3. there must be free capacity in their paper mills 4. is it the right grade of paper

A. Relevant, but doesn't HAVE TO BE true. i.e. Jap and Western European manufacturers could just replace their existing suppliers and produce no more OR they can buy and store - this does not have to be true for the conclusion to be true
B. CORRECT -> if paper quality is NOT adequate, why would importers buy (negation breaks down the argument - i.e. it must be a valid assumption)
C. Relevant, but doesn't HAVE TO BE true. Sure this statement can support the conclusion. However, it doesnt have to be true for the conclusion to be true. Even if other factors were not attractive, importers could buy raw material PURELY on cost
D. Demand doesn't have to increase. It just needs to exist. See point for A. Also if you negate this statement it STRENGTHENS the conclusion. For it to be an assumption, the negation must lead to the destruction of the conclusion
E. Again, production need not increase. Even if production remained steady, exports may rise.
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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 22 Oct 2013, 12:02
I would choose B over C because if B isn't true, then no matter how cheap it would be to buy wood pulp from US if it is not of considerable quality, the manufactures from Japan and Europe won't buy the pulp.
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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 23 Oct 2013, 10:17
B,

C is kind of out of scope. We are told this scenario would happen due to falling value of dollar, So why should we even consider a case where cost is not a factor. It is "the" factor.

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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 26 Nov 2013, 06:24
It is nice to see various CR questions but I just want to take an attention about low quality questions such as this one. These questions just throw you in the wrong-path of thinking. Solving an official problem over and over again still has an advantage over solving unknown and debatable such as this one. Do not bother if you missed
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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 27 Nov 2013, 20:17
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zazoz wrote:
It is nice to see various CR questions but I just want to take an attention about low quality questions such as this one. These questions just throw you in the wrong-path of thinking. Solving an official problem over and over again still has an advantage over solving unknown and debatable such as this one. Do not bother if you missed


I do not know the source of this question since the original poster hasn't given it but it is not a low quality question. Also, the OA is not debatable. It is a good tricky question and brings forward the essential difference between "necessary" and "sufficient" conditions which is something we focus a lot on in the first Veritas class. It is absolutely essential for you to understand this difference since you will find it useful not only in Verbal but also in Quant.
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Re: CR-Wood pulp. [#permalink] New post 08 Dec 2013, 12:48
marshpa wrote:
Yes thats the OA but could you please provide reasons?


Good question ! The answer is definitely "B" but the question is a little tricky. I think the best way to tackle this question is to negate the answer choices and the one that makes the conclusion collapse is the right answer !!! For example
Answer choice B negated will be as follows if papers quality is not adequate for Japanese factories then exports will not rise so this best fits .

If you negate answer choice "C" you will realise that it is out of scope !!
Hope that helped
Re: CR-Wood pulp.   [#permalink] 08 Dec 2013, 12:48
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