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Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably

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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 25 Jan 2013, 23:45
Expert's post
Answer is Choice B

A) Not Relevant

B) Demand will be increased if the price falls and it is usable for the japanese …. Manufacturers. Correct.

C) This choice attributes the quality of wood pulp to the demand generated for it. However it is difficult to find support for this from the passage. So incorrect

D) Incorrect. When the demand doesn't increase if it remained same then the conclusion might hold true but if it drcreased then conclusion would be weakened.

E)Not relevant
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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 03 Apr 2013, 23:48
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marshpa wrote:
Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably during this year. The reason for the rise is that the falling value of the dollar will make it cheaper for paper manufacturers in Japan and Western Europe to buy American wood pulp than to get it from any other source.

Which of the following is an assumption made in drawing the conclusion above?

(A) Factory output of paper products in Japan and Western Europe will increase sharply during this year.
(B) The quality of the wood pulp produced in the United States would be adequate for the purposes of Japanese and Western European paper manufacturers.
(C) Paper manufacturers in Japan and Western Europe would prefer to use wood pulp produced in the United States if cost were not a factor.
(D) Demand for paper products made in Japan and Western Europe will not increase sharply during this year.
(E) Production of wood pulp by United States companies will not increase sharply during this year.

I am not convinced with OA for this question..


Responding to a pm:
The correct answer is (B).
Why not (C)? Because (C) is a sufficient condition for the conclusion to be true while (B) is a necessary condition for the conclusion to be true. An assumption is a necessary premise for the conclusion so (B) is the correct option.

To elaborate:

Premises:
- Dollar is falling.
- It will be cheaper for paper manufacturers in Japan and Western Europe to buy American wood pulp than to get it from any other source.

Conclusion:
- Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably during this year.

The conclusion is linking 'Sale of pulp' to 'Cost of pulp'. It says since the cost will be lower, it will sell. We are assuming here that the American pulp is adequate in all other qualities that you look for while buying. Or that lower cost is all that matters while buying something.

Option (B) says that the quality is adequate and hence is an assumption. Notice that it is necessary for our conclusion. If the quality is not adequate, no matter what the cost, US pulp sale may not increase.

Option (C) says that Japanese and Europeans prefer to use US pulp if cost does not matter. Do we NEED this to be true? No. It is good if it is true because it means that if cost of US pulp goes down, US pulp will sell more (hence, it is sufficient for the conclusion to be true - assuming all else stays constant). But do we NEED them to prefer US pulp? No. It is not necessary for our conclusion to be true.

Beware of this difference between 'necessary' and 'sufficient' conditions. Remember that assumptions are NECESSARY conditions, they don't need to be sufficient. We end up incorrectly choosing sufficient because they cover a wider range. If sufficient is true, then conclusion has to be true. But mind you, that is not the question. THe question is looking for a necessary condition, not for a sufficient condition.

Check out another question on the same logic:
since-mayor-drabble-always-repays-her-political-debts-as-98398.html?hilit=assumption%20necessary%20sufficient

and watch out for my this week's post. I will discuss this on my blog Quarter Wit Quarter Wisdom.
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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 22 Oct 2013, 04:41
Conclusion: Author claims that the export of US wood pulp will increase a lot during the current year.
Premise: Falling value of dollar will make US pulp cheaper than pulp from anywhere else

Find the assumption - i.e. some NEW information that MUST be true for the conclusion to be true.

Pre-think assumptions - what HAS to be true? Some thoughts: 1. the dollar must fall quick enough for results to yield quickly 2. there must be demand from western and jap producers 3. there must be free capacity in their paper mills 4. is it the right grade of paper

A. Relevant, but doesn't HAVE TO BE true. i.e. Jap and Western European manufacturers could just replace their existing suppliers and produce no more OR they can buy and store - this does not have to be true for the conclusion to be true
B. CORRECT -> if paper quality is NOT adequate, why would importers buy (negation breaks down the argument - i.e. it must be a valid assumption)
C. Relevant, but doesn't HAVE TO BE true. Sure this statement can support the conclusion. However, it doesnt have to be true for the conclusion to be true. Even if other factors were not attractive, importers could buy raw material PURELY on cost
D. Demand doesn't have to increase. It just needs to exist. See point for A. Also if you negate this statement it STRENGTHENS the conclusion. For it to be an assumption, the negation must lead to the destruction of the conclusion
E. Again, production need not increase. Even if production remained steady, exports may rise.
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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 22 Oct 2013, 12:02
I would choose B over C because if B isn't true, then no matter how cheap it would be to buy wood pulp from US if it is not of considerable quality, the manufactures from Japan and Europe won't buy the pulp.
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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 23 Oct 2013, 10:17
B,

C is kind of out of scope. We are told this scenario would happen due to falling value of dollar, So why should we even consider a case where cost is not a factor. It is "the" factor.

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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 26 Nov 2013, 06:24
It is nice to see various CR questions but I just want to take an attention about low quality questions such as this one. These questions just throw you in the wrong-path of thinking. Solving an official problem over and over again still has an advantage over solving unknown and debatable such as this one. Do not bother if you missed
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Re: Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably [#permalink] New post 27 Nov 2013, 20:17
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zazoz wrote:
It is nice to see various CR questions but I just want to take an attention about low quality questions such as this one. These questions just throw you in the wrong-path of thinking. Solving an official problem over and over again still has an advantage over solving unknown and debatable such as this one. Do not bother if you missed


I do not know the source of this question since the original poster hasn't given it but it is not a low quality question. Also, the OA is not debatable. It is a good tricky question and brings forward the essential difference between "necessary" and "sufficient" conditions which is something we focus a lot on in the first Veritas class. It is absolutely essential for you to understand this difference since you will find it useful not only in Verbal but also in Quant.
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Re: CR-Wood pulp. [#permalink] New post 08 Dec 2013, 12:48
marshpa wrote:
Yes thats the OA but could you please provide reasons?


Good question ! The answer is definitely "B" but the question is a little tricky. I think the best way to tackle this question is to negate the answer choices and the one that makes the conclusion collapse is the right answer !!! For example
Answer choice B negated will be as follows if papers quality is not adequate for Japanese factories then exports will not rise so this best fits .

If you negate answer choice "C" you will realise that it is out of scope !!
Hope that helped
Re: CR-Wood pulp.   [#permalink] 08 Dec 2013, 12:48
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