Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably during this year. The reason for the rise is that the falling value of the dollar will make it cheaper for paper manufacturers in Japan and Western Europe to buy American wood pulp than to get it from any other source.
Which of the following is an assumption made in drawing the conclusion above?
(A) Factory output of paper products in Japan and Western Europe will increase sharply during this year.
(B) The quality of the wood pulp produced in the United States would be adequate for the purposes of Japanese and Western European paper manufacturers.
(C) Paper manufacturers in Japan and Western Europe would prefer to use wood pulp produced in the United States if cost were not a factor.
(D) Demand for paper products made in Japan and Western Europe will not increase sharply during this year.
(E) Production of wood pulp by United States companies will not increase sharply during this year.
I am not convinced with OA for this question..
Responding to a pm:
The correct answer is (B).
Why not (C)? Because (C) is a sufficient condition for the conclusion to be true while (B) is a necessary condition for the conclusion to be true. An assumption is a necessary premise for the conclusion so (B) is the correct option.
- Dollar is falling.
- It will be cheaper for paper manufacturers in Japan and Western Europe to buy American wood pulp than to get it from any other source.
- Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably during this year.
The conclusion is linking 'Sale of pulp' to 'Cost of pulp'. It says since the cost will be lower, it will sell. We are assuming here that the American pulp is adequate in all other qualities that you look for while buying. Or that lower cost is all that matters while buying something.
Option (B) says that the quality is adequate and hence is an assumption. Notice that it is necessary for our conclusion. If the quality is not adequate, no matter what the cost, US pulp sale may not increase.
Option (C) says that Japanese and Europeans prefer to use US pulp if cost does not matter. Do we NEED this to be true? No. It is good if it is true because it means that if cost of US pulp goes down, US pulp will sell more (hence, it is sufficient for the conclusion to be true - assuming all else stays constant). But do we NEED them to prefer US pulp? No. It is not necessary for our conclusion to be true.
Beware of this difference between 'necessary' and 'sufficient' conditions. Remember that assumptions are NECESSARY conditions, they don't need to be sufficient. We end up incorrectly choosing sufficient because they cover a wider range. If sufficient is true, then conclusion has to be true. But mind you, that is not the question. THe question is looking for a necessary condition, not for a sufficient condition.
Check out another question on the same logic:since-mayor-drabble-always-repays-her-political-debts-as-98398.html?hilit=assumption%20necessary%20sufficient
and watch out for my this week's post. I will discuss this on my blog Quarter Wit Quarter Wisdom.
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