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Five years ago, during the first North American outbreak of

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Five years ago, during the first North American outbreak of [#permalink] New post 22 Feb 2008, 02:40
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Five years ago, during the first North American outbreak of the cattle disease CXC, the death rate from the disease was 5 percent of all reported cases, whereas today the corresponding figure is over 18 percent. It is clear, therefore, that during these past 5 years, CXC has increased in virulence.

Which one of the following, if true, most substantially weakens the argument?

(A) Many recent cattle deaths that have actually been caused by CXC have been mistakenly attributed to another disease that mimics the symptoms of CXC.
(B) During the first North American outbreak of the disease, many of the deaths reported to have been caused by CXC were actually due to other causes.
(C) An inoculation program against CXC was recently begun after controlled studies showed inoculation to be 70 percent effective in preventing serious cases of the illness.
(D) Since the first outbreak, farmers have learned to treat mild cases of CXC and no longer report them to veterinarians or authorities.
(E) Cattle that have contracted and survived CXC rarely contract the disease a second time.

Explanation pls of the right answer
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Neelabh Mahesh

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Re: CR: CXC disease [#permalink] New post 22 Feb 2008, 05:50
It should be D, because people do not report mild cases, and therefore the death rate from the disease has increased. May be the reported number is the same or lower but more serious than before, and therefore the death rate is higher. So XCS did not increase in virulance, just people report only very serious cases.
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Re: CR: CXC disease [#permalink] New post 22 Feb 2008, 06:12
yup the answer availabe with me makes D the correct choice but can u explain it more zolton
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Re: CR: CXC disease [#permalink] New post 22 Feb 2008, 06:22
zoltan wrote:
It should be D, because people do not report mild cases, and therefore the death rate from the disease has increased. May be the reported number is the same or lower but more serious than before, and therefore the death rate is higher. So XCS did not increase in virulance, just people report only very serious cases.


Hmm got it. the number of reported cases have come down so the percentage resulting in deaths has increased even if the actual deaths may not have increased. This shows the CXC might not be more virulent than before.
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Re: CR: CXC disease [#permalink] New post 22 Feb 2008, 06:30
Okay I try to be more exact.

For example, earlier, people reported 100 case, and from 100 cases 5 died. This is 5 % death rate.

Now the number of reported cases is less, because people treat minor cases. Therefore, we have less reported cases, but the same number of death 5, it means we have around 28 reported cases. 18% of 28 is around 5.

So, the increase death rate do not mean that CXC has increased in virulence.

This is only my logic, I might be wrong.
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Re: CR: CXC disease [#permalink] New post 22 Feb 2008, 06:42
I agree with D too.

Cause ---> Effect relationsship.

If we can find a different cause for the effect then we can weakend the argument and thats the reason I chose D.
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Re: CR: CXC disease [#permalink] New post 22 Feb 2008, 09:31
I agree with you guys. It is D.
The conclusion of this arguement is based on the misconception that a larger percent automatically means a larger number. The only way to know the number that a percentage represent is to know the overall number. The arguement doesn't say anything about the overall amount of the reported cases. If the overall amount of the reported cases descreased then the percentage could be higher but the number will be smaller.
Re: CR: CXC disease   [#permalink] 22 Feb 2008, 09:31
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