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For all you traders

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Senior Manager
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For all you traders [#permalink] New post 06 May 2008, 09:20
I know they have tons of these on various websites, but I like CNBC's:

http://contests.cnbc.com/milliondollar/main.do
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 06 May 2008, 11:00
Yeah, I was always terrible at these things. Still don't understand how someone can pick stocks that appreciate so much in such a short time frame. Bravo to whomever wins. :lol:
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 06 May 2008, 16:48
Haha thanks for this dj :) I'd need to familiarize myself with NYSE before i can start this :)
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 06 May 2008, 21:17
jbpayne wrote:
Yeah, I was always terrible at these things. Still don't understand how someone can pick stocks that appreciate so much in such a short time frame. Bravo to whomever wins. :lol:


Mostly luck i would guess, unless you had insider knowledge :o

The alternative, is if you had enough leverage to influence the market :shock:
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 07 May 2008, 00:29
I'm signed up and ready to claim the $500k top prize!

Has anyone read the rules? A lot of limitations on what you can do (i.e. no short-selling, no options) and you can only buy a stock at the market closing price for that particular day.
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 07 May 2008, 02:35
Haha yeah trader1 I did a similar one for the ASX last year.

Trouble is - its just the not the same with virtual money ....

trader1 wrote:
I'm signed up and ready to claim the $500k top prize!

Has anyone read the rules? A lot of limitations on what you can do (i.e. no short-selling, no options) and you can only buy a stock at the market closing price for that particular day.
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 16 May 2008, 13:35
So how's everyone portfolios doing?

So far, my performance on the week ranges from 2.1% - 5.9%, with an average of 4.5%. It would be real nice to maintain this performance consistently through the end of the game!!!

Some of the other top performers are already clocking in 15% + performances on the week, which is unsustainable in my opinion. You don't get that type of performance without experiencing major drawdowns at some point.
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 16 May 2008, 14:40
This week was pretty good for that game, and most of the game might be fine for it. Play the earnings - the expectation is probably downside, so if you are hopeful on the recovery and any hold-up kicking in, you're good.

The short selling rule I would expect is simply because your average investor can't short sell. It isn't really intended as a trading experience. But, even beyond that, the phone and win money for your portfolio thing is infuriating for watching it. I might move to Bloomberg till it finishes.
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 17 May 2008, 00:41
3underscore wrote:
This week was pretty good for that game, and most of the game might be fine for it. Play the earnings - the expectation is probably downside, so if you are hopeful on the recovery and any hold-up kicking in, you're good.

The short selling rule I would expect is simply because your average investor can't short sell. It isn't really intended as a trading experience. But, even beyond that, the phone and win money for your portfolio thing is infuriating for watching it. I might move to Bloomberg till it finishes.


I don't even like CNBC (bubblevision) anyways. I always watch Bloomberg, because they're a little more objective.

The no short selling and no options rules annoy the hell out of me, in addition to the order processing only taking place at the end of the day. I also don't like the fact that ETFs aren't eligible to trade. I want to be able to buy SDS, QID, DGP, etc. The S&P is facing serious upside resistance, and there's a lot of talk about how the worst is behind us. That should worry the bulls, because they're not taking into consideration how bad the real economy is going to get. The market could continue heading up into the elections, but any substantial rise is a trading exit for the smart money.
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 17 May 2008, 05:54
I haven't had time - I am prepping for a gmat retake :(
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 17 May 2008, 07:51
bsd_lover wrote:
I haven't had time - I am prepping for a gmat retake :(


Good luck!

GMAT more important than some silly stock game...
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 23 May 2008, 14:48
These are my top 3 of 5 portfolios.

Attachment:
port.jpg
port.jpg [ 43.79 KiB | Viewed 1059 times ]


I'm happy, but not happy enough. There are some folks already up over 30% in the past 2 weeks. Not sure which stocks they are picking (which are eligible). My strategy is to gradually make consistent gains every week, and let these hotheads with no money management skills blow out their out-sized gains by the end of the competition. But, who knows. They may have the found the stock which rises 1000% in a matter of a month. They're out there.

I have differed my strategies between all of my portfolios, but I have chosen to keep "special" stocks in every one of them with varying percentages. I am mainly positioned with natural resources/commodities stocks, but I do have some tech stocks and general equities. I even added Ford shares the last two days. I'm just looking for a dead-cat bounce there!
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 23 May 2008, 20:58
trader1 wrote:
3underscore wrote:
This week was pretty good for that game, and most of the game might be fine for it. Play the earnings - the expectation is probably downside, so if you are hopeful on the recovery and any hold-up kicking in, you're good.

The short selling rule I would expect is simply because your average investor can't short sell. It isn't really intended as a trading experience. But, even beyond that, the phone and win money for your portfolio thing is infuriating for watching it. I might move to Bloomberg till it finishes.


I don't even like CNBC (bubblevision) anyways. I always watch Bloomberg, because they're a little more objective.

The no short selling and no options rules annoy the hell out of me, in addition to the order processing only taking place at the end of the day. I also don't like the fact that ETFs aren't eligible to trade. I want to be able to buy SDS, QID, DGP, etc. The S&P is facing serious upside resistance, and there's a lot of talk about how the worst is behind us. That should worry the bulls, because they're not taking into consideration how bad the real economy is going to get. The market could continue heading up into the elections, but any substantial rise is a trading exit for the smart money.


I was debating on this, but I feel like I do not have enough knowledge on how to go about picking stocks.
How did you guys learn the lingo, and how to start investing? By reading books on trading or just someone taught you?
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 24 May 2008, 09:57
89nk wrote:
I was debating on this, but I feel like I do not have enough knowledge on how to go about picking stocks.
How did you guys learn the lingo, and how to start investing? By reading books on trading or just someone taught you?



I've been interested in the financial markets since I was a young teen. During lunch hours, a group of friends and I would surf the internet to check stocks and their prices, etc. I didn't start actually using my own money in the market until I was 18, so that makes 10 years now that I've been an active investor/trader. I have learned a lot by "paying tuition" in the marketplace, but I've also learned that you should find a sector that interests you and know as much as you can about it: what are the companies with the best stock performance and why?, which companies are laggards and why?, what is the forward outlook for the overall sector and how does it fit into the macroeconomic environment you foresee?, etc., etc. Beyond that, I've done a lot of self-study reading books, business news, and having some key mentors.

But, before all that, you need to define what you are. Are you an investor? trader (speculator)? or both? a gambler? Once you know what type of market participant you are, decisions you make in the marketplace are no longer made on a whim. That is, unless you're the gambler. Please don't be the gambler in the market, because the market will gladly take your money away from you. But, knowing whether you're an investor or trader (or both) will help you define a strategy/plan on the actions you take in the market. Investors normally will take a year or longer outlook on the market, whereas traders can take as little as a few seconds. With that said, it doesn't matter what you think. The markets don't care if you're "correct" on your position. You don't have to be "right" in the market to make money. The market is simply a mechanism to extract money from other market participants. Markets are zero-sum, meaning that for every buyer of a stock, there is a seller. Taking that further, funds from your account are flowing into someone else's, and vice versa. The buyer believes the price will eventually go up, or else he wouldn't be buying. The seller believes that the price is high and either wants to book profits or believes the price will eventually decline (i.e., the short seller). Someone wins, and someone loses. And, the market doesn't care what you think, even if you're perspective is fundamentally correct. The market is simply an expression of human behavior, and human behavior is not always "sound". I am talking more like a trader, because that is how I act in the marketplace. I do keep a long-term investment perspective, but I also try to think as the trader does, and exit positions at a profit with the aim of buying it back again cheaper than I sold (or selling higher again from where I bought).

OK....I'm getting too long-winded here, so I'll answer how to pick stocks.

A lot of times I find out about stocks just by searching through Bloomberg, WSJ, FT, Reuters, and Yahoo Finance. You can search stocks by sector quite easily on Yahoo Finance, and you can also search by mutual fund specialty and then find out which stocks particular funds like. When you find stocks that interest you, sort your stock picks by sector and build up your "database". Another way to find companies is by studying the components of various sector indices. Sector indices such as the HUI Gold Bugs Index tracks the performance of a select group of precious metals stocks. I have used that index as a starting point, and have then selected certain stocks which meet my criteria. I have also hung out a lot on stock message boards and came across new companies to research for myself. Word of caution though on message boards. Usually, someone is always selling a story to benefit their own position. Rarely will you find genuine people on those message boards. But, sometimes you get lucky and there are good people. Bottom line, I always study the charts of a particular stock. The chart tells me what's been going on with the stock, i.e. trend of price movement. Basically, the chart is a map of the human behavior around a particular stock. Are people selling this stock (chart pattern is down)? Or are people buying this stock (chart pattern is up)? Does the price justify the fundamentals?! I will determine if there is a clear trend, and then further research the company by checking out the website, PRs, balance sheets, etc. If this is a long term investment, I must like the company's forward prospects and then look for the proper entry. I will avoid buying while the stock price is going up. I want to buy it on a dip. However, if I am only in for quick trade, I will actually buy a stock while it's rising, but only after it has take out a former high. Typically, when stock prices take out highs, they tend to keep running higher until the demand wanes. I want to be out before last call, and not be caught holding an empty drink in my hand. This is easier said than done.

Another option for selecting stocks is to use market screeners, which are sometimes proprietary, or you can use Professor Greenblatt's (of NYU Stern) "Magic Formula Investing" tool to generate a list of companies that "may" represent good buys:

http://magicformulainvesting.com/book.do


There are bull and bear sectors everywhere, and I think everyone should be comfortable with going both long and short stocks, because there is money to be made in both directions. Also, what is your edge? Meaning, what knowledge or perception of the market do you have that not everyone else may have, and how does it aid in your decision-making. Technical analysis of charts is not really an edge, because a lot of market participants use it. A lot of the time it becomes self-fulfilling, so you can use signals and trend analysis to your advantage. With that said, it is useful to use technical analysis as only a guide in determining when to enter and exit positions. But, technical analysis of charts alone is not sufficient. If you're a long-term oriented investor, you need to have a fundamental perspective on a company within a given sector and be able to justify why so. If the market goes against you rather quickly, then you will stick to your views and not be kicked out of your position. Maybe you think the price has become more attractive so you buy (or sell) more.

In my opinion, this CNBC game is not for the long-term investor. Those who are successful know how to think/act like a trader does, look for out-sized gains under short-time frames, and go with the flow, i.e. follow the momentum.
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 25 May 2008, 04:13
Are you using any technical analysis ? Any volume based entry signals ? Which ones do you find most effective ?

trader1 wrote:
These are my top 3 of 5 portfolios.

I'm happy, but not happy enough. There are some folks already up over 30% in the past 2 weeks. Not sure which stocks they are picking (which are eligible). My strategy is to gradually make consistent gains every week, and let these hotheads with no money management skills blow out their out-sized gains by the end of the competition. But, who knows. They may have the found the stock which rises 1000% in a matter of a month. They're out there.

I have differed my strategies between all of my portfolios, but I have chosen to keep "special" stocks in every one of them with varying percentages. I am mainly positioned with natural resources/commodities stocks, but I do have some tech stocks and general equities. I even added Ford shares the last two days. I'm just looking for a dead-cat bounce there!
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 25 May 2008, 09:56
bsd_lover wrote:
Are you using any technical analysis ? Any volume based entry signals ? Which ones do you find most effective ?


I'm a big fan of technical analysis, but it doesn't always work.

What I like best is to simply follow the trend, and I use a certain series of moving averages to mark potential buy points, i.e 10 day SMA, 30 day SMA, 50 SMA, 100 SMA, and 200 SMA. As long as all MAs are trending upwards or all downwards, then you just wait for a retest of a particular MA (that has shown to provide support/resistance) and buy/sell. Some other signals that I like to compliment this with are MACD, RSI and Stochastics. I like to use these to spot momentum, strength of the price move, and whether or not the stock is overbought/oversold. Again, technical analysis doesn't work all the time. It is more important to have a fundamental analysis of a particular stock before using technical cues to trade.
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 25 May 2008, 14:35
I fully agree. Bottom line is a high probability trading signal. It may not always work (that's when stop losses help), it just needs to work more often than not.
trader1 wrote:
bsd_lover wrote:
Are you using any technical analysis ? Any volume based entry signals ? Which ones do you find most effective ?


I'm a big fan of technical analysis, but it doesn't always work.

What I like best is to simply follow the trend, and I use a certain series of moving averages to mark potential buy points, i.e 10 day SMA, 30 day SMA, 50 SMA, 100 SMA, and 200 SMA. As long as all MAs are trending upwards or all downwards, then you just wait for a retest of a particular MA (that has shown to provide support/resistance) and buy/sell. Some other signals that I like to compliment this with are MACD, RSI and Stochastics. I like to use these to spot momentum, strength of the price move, and whether or not the stock is overbought/oversold. Again, technical analysis doesn't work all the time. It is more important to have a fundamental analysis of a particular stock before using technical cues to trade.
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 06 Jun 2008, 14:02
am i the only one playing this game?

well, ended this week quite nicely. i now have all my portfolios within the top 3% with two in the top .7 - .8%

i think the market killed a lot of contestants today, unless you were invested in the right gold stocks.....

Last edited by trader1 on 06 Jun 2008, 23:42, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 06 Jun 2008, 17:47
hey trader,

looks like you are a seasoned player in the market. I want to be in your shoes but have no idea whatsoever as to where I can start. Furthermore, I live in an underdeveloped country which puts a lot of constraints on the information flow. Basically, I don't know when and how to start. Can you suggest me a few books or resources or websites where I can do a little research on how I can start to invest. I know that I am more of a trader than an investor because I am also into investing money. Back home I do a lot of that in real estate because the stock market here in not developed enough. From my investment experience I know that I am more of a trader than an investor. I would rather earn a smaller profit in the short run and maximise my overall profits by turning over the investment a number of times rather than investing for longer term. By the way, you have mentioned in your earlier post that having a mentor is important. So are you ready to be my mentor?????
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Re: For all you traders [#permalink] New post 07 Jun 2008, 10:46
700willdo wrote:
hey trader,

looks like you are a seasoned player in the market. I want to be in your shoes but have no idea whatsoever as to where I can start. Furthermore, I live in an underdeveloped country which puts a lot of constraints on the information flow. Basically, I don't know when and how to start. Can you suggest me a few books or resources or websites where I can do a little research on how I can start to invest. I know that I am more of a trader than an investor because I am also into investing money. Back home I do a lot of that in real estate because the stock market here in not developed enough. From my investment experience I know that I am more of a trader than an investor. I would rather earn a smaller profit in the short run and maximise my overall profits by turning over the investment a number of times rather than investing for longer term. By the way, you have mentioned in your earlier post that having a mentor is important. So are you ready to be my mentor?????


well, i am quite flattered! i enjoy helping people, but i do not know if i'm ready to be anyone's investment mentor. i still get help on understanding the markets, so it's like you would be getting second-hand help from a student of a greater teacher. but, let me just say that no one has the crystal ball to the markets. there are many different methods to make money in the markets, and therefore there is no "right" way. in fact, you don't even have to be "right" about a particular asset class to make money from it. what you are doing is taking money away from other people in the markets. because others are trying to do the same, the single most important thing is being ruthless in protecting what you have, i.e. money management. after all, it is only the capital that you have which enables you to exploit opportunities in the markets. once you run out of capital, you are done.

what i can do is refer you to my mentor, jim sinclair, who runs the http://www.jsmineset.com website. his contact information can be found here:

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp?RQ=ED ... inkid=3861

jim sinclair's main area of focus is that of precious metals, currencies, and commodities as he primarily made his personal fortune trading those instruments over the last 40 some-odd years. he's in his mid-sixties now, and he has a wealth of knowledge. he's an interesting individual, and i think you might find his site quite different than any other you have seen.

for trading, he advocates a basic application of technical analysis:

http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAf ... _ARID=6075


as for other investment resources, (and the particular ones that i use frequently), i recommend checking out the following:

http://www.sliderontheblack.com/

http://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com (disclaimer: i co-founded the precursor to this site http://www.cometgold.com with another friend a couple years ago. it started as a message forum to focus on non-mainstream investments/ideas, and has grown into a much larger online community)

http://www.traderfeed.blogspot.com/

http://www.financialsense.com/

http://www.safehaven.com/

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

http://stockcharts.com/index.html

http://www.livewithoscar.com/index.php

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

http://www.dailyfx.com/

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/

http://www.investopedia.com/

some books i recommend:

http://www.amazon.com/When-Genius-Faile ... 0375758259

http://www.amazon.com/Enhancing-Trader- ... 482&sr=1-1

http://www.amazon.com/Market-Wizards-In ... 520&sr=1-1

http://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Sto ... _b_title_1

http://www.amazon.com/How-Made-000-Stoc ... _b_title_2

http://www.amazon.com/How-Make-Money-St ... _b_title_4

http://www.amazon.com/Inside-House-Mone ... 0471794473


one word of advice before you begin your journey trading the markets:

trade first virtually and keep a journal of the decisions you make and why.

assess your weaknesses and strengths, and then when you feel ready to drop real money into the markets, continue keeping that journal.
Re: For all you traders   [#permalink] 07 Jun 2008, 10:46
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