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GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios

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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 29 Oct 2013, 07:09
Could we add two more experiments (for quant - should be repeated for verbal too I suppose for 6 and 11 questions).

1. Correctly answer first 10 question. Incorrectly answer last 27 questions.
2. Incorrectly answer first 27 questions. Correctly answer last 10 questions.

It would be nice to verify that scenario 1 will result in a higher score than scenario 2.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 04 Nov 2013, 13:37
Hey guys!! First of all, thanks for the amazing work you’ve been doing.

Is it possible to test these scenarios with the new exam pack released by Gmac????
Browsing in this forum (and others) I’ve seen that people have experienced scores not in line with the scenarios in this thread. And most importantly, it looks like they’ve had more problems with the second test they’ve taken; that is, lower scores with more questions answered correctly ( I know the importance of the order in the algorithm). As if the questions pool isn’t big enough to sustain two tests at high scores.

Also, I have a question for Bunuel and Vercules.
Have you resetted the software each time you have tried a scenario??? Or did you do so every 2 scenarios you have tried???
I wonder if the question pool has influenced the score. Of course there would be no such problem on the real test, as the question pool is way bigger.

It’s just that the new exam pack is the closest thing to the real test and it would be great to know as much as possible about it.
So?? What do you think???
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 05 Nov 2013, 06:09
Expert's post
fedeal883 wrote:
Hey guys!! First of all, thanks for the amazing work you’ve been doing.

Is it possible to test these scenarios with the new exam pack released by Gmac????
Browsing in this forum (and others) I’ve seen that people have experienced scores not in line with the scenarios in this thread. And most importantly, it looks like they’ve had more problems with the second test they’ve taken; that is, lower scores with more questions answered correctly ( I know the importance of the order in the algorithm). As if the questions pool isn’t big enough to sustain two tests at high scores.

Also, I have a question for Bunuel and Vercules.
Have you resetted the software each time you have tried a scenario??? Or did you do so every 2 scenarios you have tried???
I wonder if the question pool has influenced the score. Of course there would be no such problem on the real test, as the question pool is way bigger.


It’s just that the new exam pack is the closest thing to the real test and it would be great to know as much as possible about it.
So?? What do you think???


Yes, I was resetting the pool each time.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 08 Nov 2013, 10:25
thankssss nice experimenting :P
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 10 Nov 2013, 21:38
Great analysis :Bunuel & Vercules
What will be the guessing strategy for verbal?
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 10 Nov 2013, 21:41
Expert's post
vivekkapoor73 wrote:
Great analysis :Bunuel & Vercules
What will be the guessing strategy for verbal?



I don't think there is any besides - get as many hard questions right, as you can :roll:
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 13 Nov 2013, 05:17
Absolutely incredible analysis guys! I think this must be one of the best GMAT strategy post I have read anywhere.

I have 1 or 2 more scenarios in mind specifically for higher scoring range. What should be the most optimum strategy for scoring more than +90% on each section? For instance is it possible to score 50 or more on quant with the following scenarios:

1. first 9 all correct; 10-20: 2 questions wrong spread randomly in this range (maybe 10th and 16th wrong) ; 21-30: 4 questions wrong again spread randomly in this range (maybe 31th, 34th,37th and 39th wrong); and lastly, 31-37 : 5 questions wrong again spread randomly in this range (maybe only 32nd and 36th correct)

2. first 12: only one wrong maybe Q#6; 13-25: every 3rd question incorrect; 26-37: every 2nd question incorrect

My logic to include randomness here is - average test taker may not have enough skill to be sure that he/she has answered every questions correct in a range and then guess completely in the next range. The strategy we are trying to test here is - is it possible to devote the maximum time in the first quartile and try to get as many correct answers as you can and with each subsequent quartile pick up the pace while compromising accuracy and still manage to get an elite score. I think +90% on each section will give one an overall score of +750.


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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 14 Nov 2013, 12:47
farful wrote:
Could we add two more experiments (for quant - should be repeated for verbal too I suppose for 6 and 11 questions).

1. Correctly answer first 10 question. Incorrectly answer last 27 questions.
2. Incorrectly answer first 27 questions. Correctly answer last 10 questions.

It would be nice to verify that scenario 1 will result in a higher score than scenario 2.



Sigh, nevermind. I just did this test myself and it was pointless. I ended up with a quant score of 6 with both scenarios.

Clearly 10 correct answers was not enough :x
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 19 Nov 2013, 02:25
1. first 9 all correct; 10-20: 2 questions wrong spread randomly in this range (maybe 10th and 16th wrong) ; 21-30: 4 questions wrong again spread randomly in this range (maybe 31th, 34th,37th and 39th wrong); and lastly, 31-37 : 5 questions wrong again spread randomly in this range (maybe only 32nd and 36th correct)

I did it myself guys. I got 50 with 13 incorrect answers. So far this looks the best or most optimal result. Let me know what you think.
Here were the incorrect ones- 5, 12, 14, 15, 20,21, 27, 30, 32, 33, 34, 36, 37
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 19 Nov 2013, 06:34
MensaNumber wrote:
1. first 9 all correct; 10-20: 2 questions wrong spread randomly in this range (maybe 10th and 16th wrong) ; 21-30: 4 questions wrong again spread randomly in this range (maybe 31th, 34th,37th and 39th wrong); and lastly, 31-37 : 5 questions wrong again spread randomly in this range (maybe only 32nd and 36th correct)

I did it myself guys. I got 50 with 13 incorrect answers. So far this looks the best or most optimal result. Let me know what you think.
Here were the incorrect ones- 5, 12, 14, 15, 20,21, 27, 30, 32, 33, 34, 36, 37


This is not the best or best optimal.

Best is first 10 correct then next 9 guess then next 9 correct then next 8 guess...Q50 final score, with only solving 19 questions in 75 mins.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 19 Nov 2013, 07:33
PlanetEarth wrote:
MensaNumber wrote:
1. first 9 all correct; 10-20: 2 questions wrong spread randomly in this range (maybe 10th and 16th wrong) ; 21-30: 4 questions wrong again spread randomly in this range (maybe 31th, 34th,37th and 39th wrong); and lastly, 31-37 : 5 questions wrong again spread randomly in this range (maybe only 32nd and 36th correct)

I did it myself guys. I got 50 with 13 incorrect answers. So far this looks the best or most optimal result. Let me know what you think.
Here were the incorrect ones- 5, 12, 14, 15, 20,21, 27, 30, 32, 33, 34, 36, 37


This is not the best or best optimal.

Best is first 10 correct then next 9 guess then next 9 correct then next 8 guess...Q50 final score, with only solving 19 questions in 75 mins.


First, the scenario you mentioned gave a total score of 49 and not 50.

Second, pls check my earlier post- my endeavour is to create a strategy in which you get at the least 50 by solving minimum number of Qs
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 24 Nov 2013, 16:41
Thanks guys, that's very interesting.

I've taken GMAT Prep 3 times and these are my results:
GMAT Prep 1 - 540 (Q32, V33) - I did **** up the timing on this one, had lots of time left
GMAT Prep 1 (reset after a long time) - 730 (Q45, V45) - 17 quant questions incorrect (numbers: 1,7,10,12-13,17-19,22,28-29,31-34,36-37), 6 verbal incorrect (8, 23,28,32,37,41)
GMAT Prep 2 - 670 (Q37, V44) - 12 quant questions incorrect (numbers: 1-4,11-12,16,20,24, 27,32-33), 4 verbal incorrect (2, 27-28,40)

These are tests that I've done for real (not trying to check the machine) and I'm looking to see whether the first questions count more. Seems like they do. On the last exam, getting the first four questions wrong on the quant hurt my score. Getting the second question wrong on verbal also detrimental, but not by much (only moving me from 99th percentile a little bit).

I was to get 45 on the quant on the real test as well, I'm just looking for the best way to do that.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 28 Nov 2013, 02:58
Hi,
Good analysis. I am here to get some insight upon my case.
Given the fact that my GMAT is scheduled next week, i probably cant work upon improving explicit skills. Hence I started reading Guessing posts.

In my 4-5 mock tests I am constantly getting score 630-660( Q46-49, V21-27). I have not incorporated any guessing technique.
In quant, PS is good but DS need little more improvement. DS is also the area where i am consuming maximum time.
Hence, what strategy should I follow- Upon reading all guessing posts, I am now planning to smartly guess few tough(above my standard) DS questions.

In verbal- Accuracy pattern is CR>SC>RC. I take around 2:00-2:30 min is CR, which I don't mind as I am getting 75% of them right.
In SC- Mixed result. 50% right. But avg time is very less. 0:45 to 1:30 min.
RC is main culprit. Being a non english speaking native, I take 5+ min for short passage and 7+ min long passage. In addition, 1 min each for answering questions attached. Moreover, I feel lot of pressure as if I am wasting precious time and eventually endup answering incorrect.

Oflate, I started skipping one short passage(with most unfamiliar topic). Probably last or second last passage. Hence I end up saving almost 10 minute full. But on the cost of 3 straight guesses. Kindly critique my this strategy and give suggestion to take this 660 to 700.


Thanks
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 28 Nov 2013, 21:28
Wow that's a very detailed analysis guys!!
I always used to believe that the first 10 question myth was exactly that - a myth - but from your results it seems that is definitely not so.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 13 Dec 2013, 22:22
Dear Bunuel ,

Can you please run a scenario on the Gprep in which all questions in the quantitative which are difficult (possibly 700 plus level ) or questions which are time consuming (which will take more than 3 minutes to answer ) - both the cases mentioned above are deliberately answered incorrectly . Also all questions which have a moderate level of difficulty or easier level of diffculty are answered correctly .

I would love to see the quant score in such a scenario. For a expert like you who has solved almost all the GPrep questions of quant - you can easily predict the diffculty level . If at all after running the simulation in the above manner - we are able to get a score of 47 - 49- then we can easily draw the conclusion that solving too tough questions are not necessary to score 700 plus . (gmat prep pack -1 - has categorized questions into - hard , medium and easy levels - from there we can get some sense as to what constitutes a tough question and what can be called an easy one!. From there we can take an idea when we do simulation on gprep 1 and gprep 2.)

I would look forward to hear on this from your side .
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 18 Dec 2013, 04:33
Thank you so much for your analysis
Great work!!
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 27 Jan 2014, 13:25
An important implication of this study is that one should invest significantly more time in the first 10 questions. Kaplan responds to this by suggesting one will struggle with the remaining questions, since the CAT will feed you much harder questions. And consequently, the investment in the first 10 questions may not have been worth it. How do gmatclub experts respond?

Put differently, Bunuel's studies suggest that the last 10 questions are the least important, whereas the first 10 are the most important. But suppose a 600-level test-taker answers the first 10 questions correctly... What are the odds he/she will correctly answer the next 21 questions correctly (and the last 10 incorrectly)? Those middle 21 questions will be increasingly difficult and next to impossible for a 600-level test taker to get correct.

Perhaps a good strategy is to compromise -- double or triple check that the mental math in the first 10 questions is correct, but not spend over 3 minutes obsessing over a difficult quant problem.

Thoughts?
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 03 Feb 2014, 02:59
Excellent post...
My GMAT exam is on 10th Feb...
So, I think this post is very much helpful to me.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 17 Feb 2014, 03:36
Vercules wrote:

GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios -- VERBAL



1) What if you get all the LAST 11 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

All the last 11 questions incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V38 ( 83 percentile, not bad after getting 11 questions incorrect in a row)

Analysis:

The 11 incorrect questions at the end of the Verbal section did not bring the score down greatly. It is unlikely that someone after attempting first 30 correctly would go so wrong in the last 11. The results show that the momentum gained by the first 30 questions is not significantly beaten by the last 11.

Conclusion:

Can we conclude that one should not worry about the last 11 questions, probably not. But, a few glitches at the end of the test would not destroy your hopes of getting a good score. This will be more clear from the results below.

2) What if you get some of the MID 11 questions (I took 11 to 20) incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

The MIDWAY 11 questions (11 to 20) incorrect and others correct.

Result:

Again V38 ( 83 percentile, once again, not bad after getting 11 questions incorrect in a row)

Analysis:

The 11 incorrect questions at the mid gave the same results as the previous experiment. The results show that the momentum lost by the mid 11 questions could be gained by answering remaining questions correctly.

Conclusion:

Again can we conclude that one should not worry about the mid 11 questions, probably not. But, the results show that you should not loose hope if you got a few questions incorrect somewhere in the midway.

3) What if you get all the FIRST 11 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

All the first 11 questions incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V22 ( 27 percentile, not a good score in verbal. I was surprised by this result)

Analysis:

The first 11 questions literally spoiled the score. Furthermore, even the successful attempts of remaining questions could not recover from the damage done by the first 11 questions.

Conclusion:

Once again can we conclude that one should worry about the first 11 questions, definitely yes. The results show that first 11 are very important to your score. We considered an extreme scenario here; it is highly unlikely that someone would perform this way during the test. Therefore I considered somewhat realistic scenarios in the next experiments.

4) What if you get all the LAST 6 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

All the last 6 questions incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V44 ( 97 percentile, an awesome score)

Analysis:

The last 6 incorrect questions were insignificant in bringing down the score.

Conclusion:

We can confidently say that if you are able to solve first 35 questions correctly, you have reached the 94+ percentile mark. Even if something bad happens in the last 6 questions, you will still be happy to see your score.

5) What if you get all the MID 6 questions(21 to 26) incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

All the MID 6 questions(21 to 26) incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V44 ( 97 percentile, wow again the same awesome score)

Analysis:

With the same results, the middle 6 incorrect questions were insignificant in bringing down the score. Moreover, the placement of these 6 incorrect questions seems to have no effect on the overall score.

Conclusion:

We can say that if you are able to solve first 35 questions correctly and the other middle 6 questions incorrectly, you have reached the 94+ percentile mark. Can we be sure about the fact that getting 35 questions correct in Verbal would give you a score of around V44 no matter what; the answer is no. The following experiments will prove why.

6) What if you get all the FIRST 6 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

All the FIRST 6 questions incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V33 ( 66 percentile, a good score, but definitely not an awesome score)

Analysis:

Getting first 6 questions incorrect is more realistic than getting the first 11 incorrect. As compared to the last two results the first 6 question greatly damaged the overall verbal score.

Conclusion:

The first incorrect 6 questions can destroy someones' hope of reaching even the 70+ percentile mark in verbal, no matter how well he/ she performs on the remaining questions. The apparent conclusion is that one should not take the initial questions lightly.


7) What if you get EQUALLY SPACED 7 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

7 EQUALLY SPACED questions incorrect with a gap of 5 correct questions in-between. Therefore, the incorrect questions are 1, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 41, the rest are correct.

Result:

V42 ( 96 percentile, My actual GMAT score)

Analysis:

A good score indeed, even after breaking the consistency after every 5 correct questions. One incorrect question between 10 correctly answered questions has not significantly lowered the overall score.

Conclusion:

The results are inline with our assumption that the more questions you solve consistently the higher your score. In testing scenarios 4 and 5 we got V44 where we solved 35 and 20 questions correct in a row respectively. In this test there was a small breaks in consistency, so we got a slightly lower score.

8) What if you get ALTERNATE questions incorrect/correct ?



Testing Scenario:

Alternate questions incorrect starting with first question incorrect. So, every odd question is incorrect and every even question is correct.

Result:

V16 ( 10 percentile)

Analysis:

This is a somewhat expected result. With around half questions incorrect and none correct in a row will in fact, result in a bad score. Some say that the first question that you receive is of medium difficulty level, a 50 percentile or a 500 level question. Moreover, if you get one question correct then incorrect probably you will maintain the level. The result was not a 50%ile score but a 10 %ile score.

Conclusion:

From the analysis we can conclude that alternate correct and incorrect question would gradually lower your percentile.

9 i) What if you get All SC questions incorrect: Test1 ?

I have conducted two tests to prove the point that SC is not individually adaptive and the location of SC question matters more than the number of SC questions that you got incorrect.

Testing Scenario:

All theSentence Correction questions incorrect anywhere in the test. In this iteration I got SC questions at following question numbers: 1, 4,6, 7, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19, 23, 24, 27, 29, 30, 31, 36, 41. 17 SC questions in total.

Result:

V25 ( 35 percentile)

9 ii) What if you get ALL SC questions incorrect: Test2 ?



Testing Scenario:

All theSentence Correction questions incorrect anywhere in the test. In this iteration I got SC questions at following question numbers: 6, 7, 8, 13, 19, 23, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 ,40 ,41. 17 SC questions in total.

Result:

V35 ( 74 percentile)

Analysis:

In both the tests I got all the 17 SC questions incorrect, but the different in the two scores was huge. In the first started with an SC question, moreover 3 out of first six were SC.

Conclusion:

SC is not individually adaptive and where you got an SC question matters more than the number of SC questions that you got incorrect. So, initial SC questions (of any other initial questions) are really more important for your overall score.

10 i) What if you get All RC questions incorrect: Test1 ?

I have conducted two tests to prove the point that RC is not individually adaptive and the location of RC question matters more than the number of RC questions that you got incorrect.

Testing Scenario:

All theReading Comprehension questions incorrect anywhere in the test. In this iteration I got RC questions at following question numbers: 10-13, 16-18, 23-25, 33-35. 13 RC questions in total.

Result:

V36 ( 79 percentile)

10 ii) What if you get ALL RC questions incorrect: Test2 ?



Testing Scenario:

All theReading Comprehension questions incorrect anywhere in the test. In this iteration I got RC questions at following question numbers: 4-6, 13-15, 18-20, 33-36. 13 SC questions in total.

Result:

V33 ( 66 percentile)

Analysis:

In both the tests I got all the 13 RC questions incorrect, but the different in the two scores was not very significant good enough. In the first test I encountered the first RC passage at the 10th question, but in the second it came early at 4th. This could be one of the reasons for the score difference.

Conclusion:

like SC, RC is also not individually adaptive and again where you got an RC question matters more than the number of RC questions that you got incorrect. So, initial RC questions (of any other initial questions) are really more important for your overall score. By observing the results we can see that scenario 10 resulted in a better score overall than scenario 9. The possible reason for this observation could be that the number of SC questions (17) is greater than that of RC questions (13).

11) What if you marked the last answer choice, but did not click submit and confirm, and the allotted time for the section gets over?



Testing Scenario:

Answered 40 verbal questions and marked the last question and waited for the time to finish.

Result:

The result was a positive one, favoring of the test taker. The test will register your answer choice and will not reward you any penalty.

Analysis/ Conclusion:

As soon as you reach the last question it's better to mark one answer choice and then attempt the that question, so even if you are not able to determine the correct answer in time, the question would still be considered for your overall score and you will receive any penalty on your score.

Quant Guessing Strategy



Testing Scenarios:



Marked the same option in all the questions.

















Quant Guessing Strategy
Test # Marked Choice Correct Score
1 Marked All Bs 2 6
2 Marked All Bs 4 6
3 Marked All As 7 6
4 Marked All Es 7 6
5 Marked All Ds 7 6
6 Marked All Cs 9 6
7 Marked All Cs 9 6
8 Marked All Cs 10 6
9 Marked All Ds 10 6
10 Marked All Cs 11 6
11 Marked All Cs 13 9
12 Marked All Bs 5 6
13 Marked All Ds 9 6
14 Marked All Ds 7 6
15 Marked All Cs 10 7


Analysis/ Conclusion :



Results from 15 tests show that on average an Option 'C' carries a higher probability of being correct and option B carries the lowest. I tested 'C' option the 5 times after I saw 13 correct "flukes" in the quant section. I think the reason is the DS questions in which many answers may in fact be 'C'. Another conclusion that we can derive from our results is that if you guess all the answers you are likely to get a '0' percentile no matter what answer you mark. But if you have to guess one or two and you have no idea/ time for the question mark 'C'. After the next tests it seems that D is the next after 'C' while guessing in quant. In test 15 again C resulted in 10 correct questions and a score of 7. Once again marking all Cs resulted in more number of correct answers as compared to others.

I will be posting results from new test scenarios. If you have any other interesting suggestions please let me know, I'll be happy to run the test.



Thanks,

Vercules




Hi!
just gave my 1st gmat prep test (after solving only the OG13). Scored 660 (47 ps, 34va). However I missed(could not attempt) last 3 va questions. Any idea about how much this may have affected my score? just looking for a rough estimate. Thanks in advance!!
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 20 Feb 2014, 17:48
Hi,

First, thanks so much for the information. This was really helpful!

Recently I took 2 MGMAT CATs and scored low on the Quant, but didn't realize the penalty for skipping questions:

Q34 (15 correct, 9 incorrect, 13 blank)
Q36 (16 correct, 9 incorrect, 12 blank)

Nearly all of the questions I completed were in the 700-800 range.

My question is, had I spent the 30 secs or so randomly guessing D, how much would that potentially increase my Quant score?

Thanks!
Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios   [#permalink] 20 Feb 2014, 17:48
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