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GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios

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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 23 Mar 2014, 14:37
But is the scoring algorithm here indicative of the actual GMAT?

Also, because we don't know for sure whether we got a question correct or not immediately after answering it, does one dare to actually skip (guess) questions 11-19, and only start trying from questions 20-28... and then guessing the remainder? What if you thought you got them right... but you didn't... now you blew around 1/2 the questions that you could've used to bring your score back up? thoughts?

Also, just wondering how difficult were the 1-10 and 20-28 questions you were getting? were they mostly 700-800 questions??

Either way thanks for your time... its great information but I'm just wondering if I dare to use it as an actual strategy on test day.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 23 Mar 2014, 16:00
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simonj13 wrote:
But is the scoring algorithm here indicative of the actual GMAT?

Also, because we don't know for sure whether we got a question correct or not immediately after answering it, does one dare to actually skip (guess) questions 11-19, and only start trying from questions 20-28... and then guessing the remainder? What if you thought you got them right... but you didn't... now you blew around 1/2 the questions that you could've used to bring your score back up? thoughts?

Also, just wondering how difficult were the 1-10 and 20-28 questions you were getting? were they mostly 700-800 questions??

Either way thanks for your time... its great information but I'm just wondering if I dare to use it as an actual strategy on test day.


WE DO NOT KNOW THE ACTUAL GMAT ALGORITHM.
It is in some ways and it is not in others. The official algorithm is much more complex and has multiple checks/verifications to prevent fraud/cheating.
If you have to skip as many questions, it is a tough situation. Try to get a better handle on your timing.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 24 Mar 2014, 04:07
I always thought that the myth about the first 10 questions is actually truth.
My quant score was Q47 :-D
Very interesting.
It is a good idea for creating a general strategy.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 26 Mar 2014, 00:40
Hi all.

Big kudos from Scandinavia!

This experiment has been tremendously valuable for me, and has allowed me to understand my challenges with this test - the fact that I has been continuously unlucky with the first 1-4 questions, which really seems to be so critical for the overall score.

I noticed in one of the replies there was a person wondering why his score was so different between two tests - and I noticed that in one of them he had made a mistake already in the first question. Combining this with my own experiences, it would be very interesting to see really how important Q 1,2 and 3 are for the complete test score.

Anything of interest for Bunuel or Vercules?

Strongly appreciate your efforts here on the forum!
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 28 Mar 2014, 13:25
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Hey guys explain me this shitty algorythum. First ten questions 8/10. Tehn 11 - 20 - 5/10 then 21- 30 7/10 and finally 31- 41 7/11 . A total of 27/41 , best record so far and only two series of three consequetive wrong questions and a shitty score on Verbal of 25. I am mad about this discrepancy. Previous time I scored 20/41 on verbal and I got a score of 25 back then first 10 5/10. How this shit happens please. Clearly I have performed a lot better this time and the shitty score stays the same. This shitty exam sometimes drives me crazy.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 10 Apr 2014, 08:25
Thanks for the wonderful analysis! I have just started preparing for GMAT. Considering the importance of the first 10 questions, I wanted to know what is the difficulty level of these 10. Are they all 700+ type questions?
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 13 Apr 2014, 11:26
Hi Bunuel,

May I ask which version of the GMAT Prep Software did you use for this analysis?
And how did you reset the software? Because in v2.2.306 we have to login using our mba.com account so I am not sure whether the reset methods given in another post still work.

Thanks.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 14 Apr 2014, 01:19
Expert's post
aquax wrote:
Hi Bunuel,

May I ask which version of the GMAT Prep Software did you use for this analysis?
And how did you reset the software? Because in v2.2.306 we have to login using our mba.com account so I am not sure whether the reset methods given in another post still work.

Thanks.


2.1.294 version.

In that version (at least) there is a reset button under "Take a practice exam" page.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 14 Apr 2014, 21:34
Tips are good and follow able for success with good marks but I think when i get Test paper we have to read entire paper and just answering those questions which we have answer 100 % sure in start. After that we will be going other question.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 21 Apr 2014, 18:37
In scenario 7 of Bunnuel's Verbal run-through, he found that if he missed 7 equally spaced questions, he ended up with a V42. I just took a GMATPrep4 CAT and missed 7 questions scattered throughout (didn't miss 2 in a row) and got a V38!

The questions I missed were 3, 7, 10, 19, 23, 27, 31.

It's pretty frustrating especially since I missed 8 questions previously and got a V41... Since I'm sure Bunnuel ran his tests on one of the two free GMATPrep exams, does anyone know if the GMATprep4 exam has a different formula? I wouldn't be surprised, because I actually got the same critical reasoning question twice in this CAT, so there are definitely flaws with GMATPrep4.
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MGMAT1 - 650 (Q44, V35)
MGMAT2 - 670 (Q42, V39)
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MGMAT4 - 630 (Q41, V35)
GMATPrep1 - 720 (Q48, V40)
GMATPrep2 - 720 (Q48, V41)
MGMAT5 - 690 (Q45, V39)
GMATPrep3 - 700 (Q47, V39)
GMATPrep4 - 710 (Q49, V38) Got one less question wrong than on my V41, but for some reason got a V38!

Goal: 740 (Q49, V42)

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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 28 May 2014, 10:59
I think we should aim at getting the maximum correct!
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 13 Jun 2014, 12:37
Phenominal Post.. Every gmat student must see this.

But, Most of the cases mentioned here are not practically practised by anyone in real GMAT. However in order to save time, i think i can plan to purposefully attempt some guesses towards the end of the Sections.... Like trying to mark the first 25 answers correctly and then guessing some answers in between. Can you please provide a scenario through your tests and tell us the Quant, Verbal scores if we correctly answer the first 27 questions and then guess/or mark incorrect nos. 28,30,32,34,36...
I am asking this to check whether we can get good scores by purposefully guessing 4-5 non-consecutive questions in order to save time while answering the questions that fall in between these guessed questions.

Thank you
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 13 Jun 2014, 15:10
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I Think guessing is a bad idea and planning to guess is more worse
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 13 Jun 2014, 21:24
Hi aashu, thanks for replying.. can you explain why it is a bad idea. We know that most errors occur due silly mistakes. These silly mistakes can be avoided by allocating more time for multiple questions. this extra amount of time can be achieved by guessing few questions in the end (which carry very les significance) within 10-15 seconds and moving on. even my instructor at princeton review recommends that
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 14 Jun 2014, 08:01
I did my coaching from a person who took GMAT 5 times scoring 700+ every time. If we have that mind set that we will skip few questions then we may not prepare ourselves to the best ( human nature ) in back of your mind you will always thing .. ohh i will skip such type of question if it comes in exam that how i think it's a really bad idea and we should prepare well instead we can take a chance to skip in the exam itself if need be
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 20 Jun 2014, 12:33
Vercules wrote:

GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios -- VERBAL



1) What if you get all the LAST 11 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

All the last 11 questions incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V38 ( 83 percentile, not bad after getting 11 questions incorrect in a row)

Analysis:

The 11 incorrect questions at the end of the Verbal section did not bring the score down greatly. It is unlikely that someone after attempting first 30 correctly would go so wrong in the last 11. The results show that the momentum gained by the first 30 questions is not significantly beaten by the last 11.

Conclusion:

Can we conclude that one should not worry about the last 11 questions, probably not. But, a few glitches at the end of the test would not destroy your hopes of getting a good score. This will be more clear from the results below.

2) What if you get some of the MID 11 questions (I took 11 to 20) incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

The MIDWAY 11 questions (11 to 20) incorrect and others correct.

Result:

Again V38 ( 83 percentile, once again, not bad after getting 11 questions incorrect in a row)

Analysis:

The 11 incorrect questions at the mid gave the same results as the previous experiment. The results show that the momentum lost by the mid 11 questions could be gained by answering remaining questions correctly.

Conclusion:

Again can we conclude that one should not worry about the mid 11 questions, probably not. But, the results show that you should not loose hope if you got a few questions incorrect somewhere in the midway.

3) What if you get all the FIRST 11 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

All the first 11 questions incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V22 ( 27 percentile, not a good score in verbal. I was surprised by this result)

Analysis:

The first 11 questions literally spoiled the score. Furthermore, even the successful attempts of remaining questions could not recover from the damage done by the first 11 questions.

Conclusion:

Once again can we conclude that one should worry about the first 11 questions, definitely yes. The results show that first 11 are very important to your score. We considered an extreme scenario here; it is highly unlikely that someone would perform this way during the test. Therefore I considered somewhat realistic scenarios in the next experiments.

4) What if you get all the LAST 6 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

All the last 6 questions incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V44 ( 97 percentile, an awesome score)

Analysis:

The last 6 incorrect questions were insignificant in bringing down the score.

Conclusion:

We can confidently say that if you are able to solve first 35 questions correctly, you have reached the 94+ percentile mark. Even if something bad happens in the last 6 questions, you will still be happy to see your score.

5) What if you get all the MID 6 questions(21 to 26) incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

All the MID 6 questions(21 to 26) incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V44 ( 97 percentile, wow again the same awesome score)

Analysis:

With the same results, the middle 6 incorrect questions were insignificant in bringing down the score. Moreover, the placement of these 6 incorrect questions seems to have no effect on the overall score.

Conclusion:

We can say that if you are able to solve first 35 questions correctly and the other middle 6 questions incorrectly, you have reached the 94+ percentile mark. Can we be sure about the fact that getting 35 questions correct in Verbal would give you a score of around V44 no matter what; the answer is no. The following experiments will prove why.

6) What if you get all the FIRST 6 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

All the FIRST 6 questions incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V33 ( 66 percentile, a good score, but definitely not an awesome score)

Analysis:

Getting first 6 questions incorrect is more realistic than getting the first 11 incorrect. As compared to the last two results the first 6 question greatly damaged the overall verbal score.

Conclusion:

The first incorrect 6 questions can destroy someones' hope of reaching even the 70+ percentile mark in verbal, no matter how well he/ she performs on the remaining questions. The apparent conclusion is that one should not take the initial questions lightly.


7) What if you get EQUALLY SPACED 7 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

7 EQUALLY SPACED questions incorrect with a gap of 5 correct questions in-between. Therefore, the incorrect questions are 1, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 41, the rest are correct.

Result:

V42 ( 96 percentile, My actual GMAT score)

Analysis:

A good score indeed, even after breaking the consistency after every 5 correct questions. One incorrect question between 10 correctly answered questions has not significantly lowered the overall score.

Conclusion:

The results are inline with our assumption that the more questions you solve consistently the higher your score. In testing scenarios 4 and 5 we got V44 where we solved 35 and 20 questions correct in a row respectively. In this test there was a small breaks in consistency, so we got a slightly lower score.

8) What if you get ALTERNATE questions incorrect/correct ?



Testing Scenario:

Alternate questions incorrect starting with first question incorrect. So, every odd question is incorrect and every even question is correct.

Result:

V16 ( 10 percentile)

Analysis:

This is a somewhat expected result. With around half questions incorrect and none correct in a row will in fact, result in a bad score. Some say that the first question that you receive is of medium difficulty level, a 50 percentile or a 500 level question. Moreover, if you get one question correct then incorrect probably you will maintain the level. The result was not a 50%ile score but a 10 %ile score.

Conclusion:

From the analysis we can conclude that alternate correct and incorrect question would gradually lower your percentile.

9 i) What if you get All SC questions incorrect: Test1 ?

I have conducted two tests to prove the point that SC is not individually adaptive and the location of SC question matters more than the number of SC questions that you got incorrect.

Testing Scenario:

All theSentence Correction questions incorrect anywhere in the test. In this iteration I got SC questions at following question numbers: 1, 4,6, 7, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19, 23, 24, 27, 29, 30, 31, 36, 41. 17 SC questions in total.

Result:

V25 ( 35 percentile)

9 ii) What if you get ALL SC questions incorrect: Test2 ?



Testing Scenario:

All theSentence Correction questions incorrect anywhere in the test. In this iteration I got SC questions at following question numbers: 6, 7, 8, 13, 19, 23, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 ,40 ,41. 17 SC questions in total.

Result:

V35 ( 74 percentile)

Analysis:

In both the tests I got all the 17 SC questions incorrect, but the different in the two scores was huge. In the first started with an SC question, moreover 3 out of first six were SC.

Conclusion:

SC is not individually adaptive and where you got an SC question matters more than the number of SC questions that you got incorrect. So, initial SC questions (of any other initial questions) are really more important for your overall score.

10 i) What if you get All RC questions incorrect: Test1 ?

I have conducted two tests to prove the point that RC is not individually adaptive and the location of RC question matters more than the number of RC questions that you got incorrect.

Testing Scenario:

All theReading Comprehension questions incorrect anywhere in the test. In this iteration I got RC questions at following question numbers: 10-13, 16-18, 23-25, 33-35. 13 RC questions in total.

Result:

V36 ( 79 percentile)

10 ii) What if you get ALL RC questions incorrect: Test2 ?



Testing Scenario:

All theReading Comprehension questions incorrect anywhere in the test. In this iteration I got RC questions at following question numbers: 4-6, 13-15, 18-20, 33-36. 13 SC questions in total.

Result:

V33 ( 66 percentile)

Analysis:

In both the tests I got all the 13 RC questions incorrect, but the different in the two scores was not very significant good enough. In the first test I encountered the first RC passage at the 10th question, but in the second it came early at 4th. This could be one of the reasons for the score difference.

Conclusion:

like SC, RC is also not individually adaptive and again where you got an RC question matters more than the number of RC questions that you got incorrect. So, initial RC questions (of any other initial questions) are really more important for your overall score. By observing the results we can see that scenario 10 resulted in a better score overall than scenario 9. The possible reason for this observation could be that the number of SC questions (17) is greater than that of RC questions (13).

11) What if you marked the last answer choice, but did not click submit and confirm, and the allotted time for the section gets over?



Testing Scenario:

Answered 40 verbal questions and marked the last question and waited for the time to finish.

Result:

The result was a positive one, favoring of the test taker. The test will register your answer choice and will not reward you any penalty.

Analysis/ Conclusion:

As soon as you reach the last question it's better to mark one answer choice and then attempt the that question, so even if you are not able to determine the correct answer in time, the question would still be considered for your overall score and you will receive any penalty on your score.

Quant Guessing Strategy



Testing Scenarios:



Marked the same option in all the questions.

















Quant Guessing Strategy
Test # Marked Choice Correct Score
1 Marked All Bs 2 6
2 Marked All Bs 4 6
3 Marked All As 7 6
4 Marked All Es 7 6
5 Marked All Ds 7 6
6 Marked All Cs 9 6
7 Marked All Cs 9 6
8 Marked All Cs 10 6
9 Marked All Ds 10 6
10 Marked All Cs 11 6
11 Marked All Cs 13 9
12 Marked All Bs 5 6
13 Marked All Ds 9 6
14 Marked All Ds 7 6
15 Marked All Cs 10 7


Analysis/ Conclusion :



Results from 15 tests show that on average an Option 'C' carries a higher probability of being correct and option B carries the lowest. I tested 'C' option the 5 times after I saw 13 correct "flukes" in the quant section. I think the reason is the DS questions in which many answers may in fact be 'C'. Another conclusion that we can derive from our results is that if you guess all the answers you are likely to get a '0' percentile no matter what answer you mark. But if you have to guess one or two and you have no idea/ time for the question mark 'C'. After the next tests it seems that D is the next after 'C' while guessing in quant. In test 15 again C resulted in 10 correct questions and a score of 7. Once again marking all Cs resulted in more number of correct answers as compared to others.

I will be posting results from new test scenarios. If you have any other interesting suggestions please let me know, I'll be happy to run the test.



Thanks,

Vercules




Thank you very much for this amazing analysis. it is definetely the best we can now about scoring system. However, I would like to know did you employ any of these strategies in real test when you scored 42 on Verbal or you decided to solve every question correctly? Thanks in advance.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 22 Jun 2014, 12:14
Has someone tested a scenario in which if we answer Same no. of incorrect Questions( Say 8) at the same positions in both Quant and Verbal sections, what scores do we land up with?
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 06 Aug 2014, 05:58
For Verbal, extension of scenario 7: What is EQUALLY SPACED 11 questions are incorrect?
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 07 Aug 2014, 09:07
@Vercules It would be great if you could do similar analysis A/B/C/D/E on PS and DS separately, meaning, in PS which answer choice has the highest occurrence and similarly which one on DS and not Quant as a whole. Because my guess is DS will have C and B as the two most preferred choice whereas, at least in theory, PS will have equal probability for all. Result of your You analysis might have been biased by DS results.

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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink] New post 17 Aug 2014, 08:06
Vercules, so for Verbal are the first 11 Q most important? Or is it just 6? Or 10? Or how does it compare to the 10 first Qs in Quant?

Thanks in advance.
Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios   [#permalink] 17 Aug 2014, 08:06
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