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GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios

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New post 25 Jan 2013, 08:12
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Bunuel wrote:
carcass wrote:
another scenario could be 2 right one wrong (the third) regardless the difficulty and the question.

A sort of a balance approach. I think is woth to taste

best regards

carcass


Just tested this scenario (4th): Q49, 85th percentile.


Interesting.

This thread must be read first by a novice. It's \(essential\)
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Quote:
6) What if you get all the FIRST 6 questions incorrect ?


Testing Scenario:
All the FIRST 6 questions incorrect and others correct.

Result:
V33 ( 66 percentile, a good score, but definitely not an awesome score)

Analysis:
Getting first 6 questions incorrect is more realistic than getting the first 11 incorrect. As compared to the last two results the first 6 question greatly damaged the overall verbal score.

Conclusion:
The first incorrect 6 questions can destroy someones' hope of reaching even the 70+ percentile mark in verbal, no matter how well he/ she performs on the remaining questions. The apparent conclusion is that one should not take the initial questions lightly.


is not difficult to infer the conclusion of these tests on official prep software eventhough I guess it will be squize even more. i.e. is early to have definitive thoughts

- what I read on several forum, blog, official articles and so on and so forth if in some extent on quant section (though not so much) the first questions are crucial BUT you "have a margin of maneuver" (of course after that there are no rooms for errors or at least few errors AFTER middle end part)

- on verbal: this confirm that for a 680 and over verbal is more important than quant. no excuses. if you aim to 750/760 then you have to do well on both side.

As such, once again, gmatclub marked the most obscure part of the test and how it works. I think after that only the algorithm we would need in its entirely. This " torture tests" are enough to make the things clear :o
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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souvik101990 wrote:
Excellent stuff Vercules :-)
One thing that I needed to clarify
I read in some GMAC blog that RC/SC/CR are separately adaptive.
I am not entirely sure if I interpreted GMAC correctly but what I understood was that:
For example in the first 10 questions for example, if you answer all the SC questions correctly but all the CR questions incorrectly, the next SC question is going to be difficult but the CR question is going to be easier.
Do you think its right in the GMATPrep scene?


Hi Souvik,
From what I recollect , in one of the forum posts Ron had answered a similar question about RC. The individual question types are not separately adaptive (Just like you,I earlier thought that was the case). So for instance, say you are at question #30 SC & you are performing at 700+ level then your next question #31 CR/RC/SC will be of the same or higher difficulty level. How it works for RC? the QP1 and Gmat prep software have a collection of 5-6 RC questions per passage, you will face a easier question from the mix if you are not doing well(depending on your performance on the previous CR/SC questions) and vice versa. So indeed the RC/SC/CR are not separately adaptive.

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Added Scenario 7 to Verbal

Testing Scenario 7:

7 EQUALLY SPACED questions incorrect with a gap of 5 correct questions in-between. Therefore, the incorrect questions are 1, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 41, the rest are correct.

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Souvik, Its k no issues i ll try to search on google, i do not remem .....I took test on 5th feb....once i get i ll PM you and no issues you can post it in your link.Let me search!!!!

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Link to first RC passage: historians-have-identified-two-dominant-currents-in-63470.html (Easy one)
Link to second RC passage : in-its-1903-decision-in-the-case-of-lone-wolf-v-hitchcock-91506.html (realtively tough)

Last i do not remem , I ll endeavor to search, if i can find i ll post. These two were the first two passages.

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I actually verified the "guess the last 10" strategy on an ACTUAL GMAT about 18 months ago. The quant score was 49. While I can't be absolutely sure that my first 27 questions were correct, I was probably sitting on a 50 or 51 before I ditched (guessed A on all) the last 10. So my score only dropped 1-2 raw points. I had seen the results you have seen on the GMATPrep software and wanted to verify that the same pattern held for the actual test. It does.
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vivek1303 wrote:
Hi All,


First of all... great analysis. But I have some doubts of my own


Day before yesterday I gave my GMAT prep and I must say I am shocked. Let my present a few stats -

GMAT Prep 1 - 760 (9th Sep, 2013). Q50 V43

Q - 8 Questions wrong (2,3,20,31,34,35,36)
V - 9 Questions wrong (13,15,20,21,29,31,32,35,40)

Here I must admit that the scores are a bit distorted. One of the RC passage was as is from OG Verbal Review so I almost, somehow, knew the answers. Plus, I had seen 2-3 CR questions in some forums or PDF's so knew the answers. This helped me save quite some time and I completed the section with 2 minutes in hand.

GMAT Prep 2 - 690 (13th Sep). Q50 V32

Q - 4 Questions wrong (1,26,36,37)
V - 11 Questions wrong (1,2,14,22,23,24,26,28,32,34,38)

Here, I had seen none of the questions previously anywhere. I got 4 wrong in each CR and RC, and 3 in SC.

Is it because of the importance of first 10 Ques ? But then again I got 17/20 in both my mocks for the first 20 Questions.

V32 was a shocker. And, the bigger shocker was that I got only 2 more wrongs than my previous mock and my score fell by 11 points. Damn..!!

Additional Info - I had given GMAT prep on 8th August as well. Somehow, my laptop crashed which was having the GMAT prep software and hence I had to download the software again on a different laptop. On this test, which was given with much lesser practice, following were the stats to the best of my knowledge.

Score - 690. Q48 V37.
15 Questions were wrong each in Quant and Verbal.

As the time left for GMAT is thinning fast, these results have left me jilted. Please guide as to where do I need to improve. Is it a software scoring issue because such massive variations over 2 question is illogical.
Is it because of the importance of 1st 10 Questions?
Or, is it because I got back to back wrongs (22,23,24 in GMAT prep 2) ..??

Enlighten, please.

Any help in this regard is highly appreciable. Please guide..


Going by the 'First 6 incorrect' scenario and the fact that I fluffed my first few initial questions on my real exam yesterday, I can tell for sure that getting Q-(1,2) wrong set you up perfectly for a lower score than your V43 you got by getting the first 12 right.

In my case, I know that I'm not a Verbal stud and I got an RC way too early in the test. Q-(4,5,6) and I had a gut feeling that I fluffed all the 3 questions there, and viola, I could never recover from that.

Did some soul searching yesterday over a peg of scotch and some self introspection today and registered for the retake already. :) Looking to ace it this time. Now that I've seen this thread, I know what to do with Verbal. I was an idiot for missing such an important thread. You have so many insights and so much useful information here on how to fine tune your strategy for Verbal.

Get the first 6-7 in Verbal correct and then try to make as mistakes as infrequently as possible and dare I say you can easily hit the 80%-85%ile mark. And if you can repeat your performance from your Prep1 and get the first 12 correct and then make a few mistakes here and there after that, you can still end up with a 95%ile. That's a kick ass score in Verbal.

This is what I intend to do from now on for Verbal. Take more time, use your head wisely for the first 12-15 questions. Taking 30-35 mins for the first 15 questions should be okay IMO especially if you are stuck with a complex RC passage and you need to get your head around it.

I wish I had an idea of this before I took my test. I rushed through the RC set that I got up front and man, I just could not recover ever. I loathed myself so much after seeing my score yesterday. I felt like punching a wall and breaking a window. Damn! :(

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Hey guys explain me this shitty algorythum. First ten questions 8/10. Tehn 11 - 20 - 5/10 then 21- 30 7/10 and finally 31- 41 7/11 . A total of 27/41 , best record so far and only two series of three consequetive wrong questions and a shitty score on Verbal of 25. I am mad about this discrepancy. Previous time I scored 20/41 on verbal and I got a score of 25 back then first 10 5/10. How this shit happens please. Clearly I have performed a lot better this time and the shitty score stays the same. This shitty exam sometimes drives me crazy.
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I Think guessing is a bad idea and planning to guess is more worse
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To understand the meaning of other experiments in this thread, it's important to understand how the scoring algorithm works. There are really two parts to the algorithm:

• the actual scoring algorithm, which determines your score based on your answers
• the question selection algorithm, which determines, based on your previous answers, which question you see next

The scoring algorithm itself is completely blind to question position. If you were to take a GMAT, and all 37 questions were 500-level, you'd get exactly the same score by answering the first 25 correctly and the last 12 incorrectly as you'd get by answering the first 12 incorrectly and the last 25 correctly. The scoring algorithm itself knows nothing about where each question was in the test; it's simply not a factor in the calculation.

What does change, though, based on your answers, are the questions you see later in the test. When you do well early on, you'll more likely see hard questions later, and if you do badly early on, you'll more likely see easy questions. Note though that every test is different. If you answer, say, your first five questions correctly (which is outstanding). The test will then be quite confident you're a high-level test taker, and will want to give you a very hard question. But your ability estimate is not the only factor the test uses to select your next question. The test also needs to meet content requirements (more than one - it needs to deliver the correct balance of math topics, and also the correct balance of PS and DS questions), and there are security conditions as well (no question is used too often, in order to prevent people from getting a big advantage by learning about test questions in advance of the test). The question database is not enormous for a single test, which means that, if you get your first 5 questions right, while the test might want to make your sixth question a 760-level question, there may not be a question exactly at that level that meets all of the conditions the test needs to meet. So depending on the database on the day you take your test, you might get a 700-level question at that point, or an 800-level question.

So every test is different, which is why you'll get different results each time when you carry out experiments where you get questions in certain positions wrong (every odd numbered question, say). I have the impression that the assumption behind those experiments is that questions are 'weighted' by their position in the test (that early questions count more than later ones), and that's not the case.

To demonstrate this, I did just carry out two trials using two different GMATPrep Quant tests, where I answered every prime numbered question (2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 37) incorrectly. On the first attempt, my score was Q33, and on the second, it was Q38. That's quite a big difference.

I'm not precisely sure what the purpose of these experiments is, testing how wrong answers in different places will affect your score, but if the goal is to find certain question numbers that are especially important or unimportant, you simply won't be able to do that. It's not how the test works.
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This might be interesting for some of you:

I answered all Quant questions correctly (I had the answers, of course), and all but one (number 20) verbal questions correctly.

The result:
Quant: 51, 98 percentile
Verbal: 48, 99 percentile
Overall: 790, 99 percentile

So it seems that for getting a 800 score, one should answer ALL (exactly all) questions correctly!
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Some new scenarios have been posted here:
enhanced-score-report-analysis-what-if-scenarios-218768.html
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I suppose it matters a lot what exam pack you use. I think the default exam pack is much better at testing a candidate at his breaking point (as compared to the two paid packs).

I got V42 with 4 wrongs in exam 2 of EP2 and yesterday got V44 with 7 wrongs in the default exam pack (exam 1).
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New post 21 Jan 2013, 10:28
Great work.

Scenario 1: 7 or 8 correct in first 10 question. Then ,
- how many consecutive wrong answers will not allow to score 90+ %?
- And where it effects the most? For e.g. 5 consecutive wrong between 10 & 20 or 20 & 30 or 30 & 37?

Scenario 2: Does any particular type of question (s) gives us any indication of our performance (during exam)? For e.g. Probability or P&C question
in exam indicates that we have reached 700+ level
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New post 22 Jan 2013, 18:15
Gr8 initiative by Bunuel. Interesting stuff!

I feel to get a more realistic assessment that can be close to the test day performance we can test -

scenario 1] 3-4 questions wrong per every 10 questions ie around 12-14 questions wrong out of 37

scenario 2] getting alternate questions wrong (may be 2 correct then 2 wrong and so on..)
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios   [#permalink] 22 Jan 2013, 18:15

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