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Re: If the probability of rain on any given day in City X is 50 percent [#permalink]
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JuliaS wrote:
If the probability of rain on any given day in City X is 50 percent, what is the probability that it rains on exactly 3 days in a 5-day period?

(A) 8/125
(B) 2/25
(C) 5/16
(D) 8/25
(E) 3/4

Thanks a lot!


welcome to the forum

total possibilties 2^5 = 32
rain combinations 5c3 = 10
10/32 = 5/16
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Re: If the probability of rain on any given day in City X is 50 percent [#permalink]
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Binomial distribution formula: C(n,k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)

Given that the probability of Rain happening is p (=1/2) and not happening is 1-p (=1-1/2=1/2),
=> Probability of Rain happening k times (=3) in n repeated tests (=5)
= C(5,3) * (1/2)^3 * (1-1/2)^(5-3)
= C(5,3) * (1/2)^5
= 10/32
= 5/16
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Re: Probability it with rain on 3 days in a five day ? [#permalink]
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Alchemist1320 wrote:
If the probability of rain on any given day in city x is 50% what is the probability it with rain on exactly 3 days in a five day period?

8/125
2/25
5/16
8/25
3/4


Think of it this way:
R - Rainy day
N - Non rainy day
P(R) = 1/2
P(N) = 1/2

3 of the 5 days are rainy can happen in many ways:
RRRNN
RNRRN
NNRRR
etc...

What is the probability of RRRNN? It is \((1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) = (1/2)^5\)
This probability can be satisfied in the number of ways in which you can arrange RRRNN (some arrangements are shown above)
You have to arrange 5 things of which 2 are same and another 3 are same. This can be done in 5!/2!*3! ways
Probability of exactly 3 rainy days is \(5!/(2!*3!) * (1/2)^5 = 5/16\)
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Re: If the probability of rain on any given day in City X is 50 percent [#permalink]
Could you tell me why it is a combination and not a permutation?

N = 3C5 x 1/8 x 1/4

why do i have to divide by 2! ?
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Re: If the probability of rain on any given day in City X is 50 percent [#permalink]
thank you for your answer!

I just started with permutations and probability.

I still dont understand why we use the combination formula and not the permutation one.

Is it because we do not differentiate between one rainy day and the other? are they all the same for us?

Are most Gmat questions at this level?
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Re: If the probability of rain on any given day in City X is 50 percent [#permalink]
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flokki wrote:
thank you for your answer!

I just started with permutations and probability.

I still dont understand why we use the combination formula and not the permutation one.

Is it because we do not differentiate between one rainy day and the other? are they all the same for us?

Are most Gmat questions at this level?


Yes, we do not differentiate between RRR and NN: for example RRRNN means that it was raining on the first three days and we have no reason to differentiate between them. Also notice that most GMAT combination/probability questions are fairly straightforward and can be solved in several ways. This problem is also dealing with a simple concept explained in the links I sited above, so I'd recommend to brush your fundamentals on combinations before you move to the problems.
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Re: If the probability of rain on any given day in City X is 50 percent [#permalink]
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JuliaS wrote:
If the probability of rain on any given day in City X is 50 percent, what is the probability that it rains on exactly 3 days in a 5-day period?

(A) 8/125
(B) 2/25
(C) 5/16
(D) 8/25
(E) 3/4


P(RRRNN) = (1/2)^5 =1/32

Since RRRNN can be arranged in 5!/(3! x 2!) = 5 x 2 = 10 ways, the overall probability is 10/32 = 5/16.

Answer: C
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Re: If the probability of rain on any given day in City X is 50 percent [#permalink]
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Solution:

Probability of rain each day =1/2

=> Probability of no rain on a day =1-1/2 = 1/2

Number of ways to select 3 of 5 days = 5C3 =5! / 3! 2! =10

=>Probability(Rains on exactly 3 days in a 5-day period) = 10 x (1/2)^3 x(1/2)^2

= 5/16 (option c)

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Re: If the probability of rain on any given day in City X is 50 percent [#permalink]
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