I'm not confident. I think a 14% admit rate or whatever it was last year is enough to make almost anyone wonder about their chances. With that said, I am hopeful, and I fully agree with you on all of the above reasons for going to Haas. It is definately one of my favorite schools.
don't get me wrong, I have absolutely no problem with the first part of the statement where people who want to have a higher chance of admit should apply to other Elite schools with higher admit rates. Haas' rate is low, Stanford lower, and one should apply knowing the "risks" involved with the low admit rate.