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Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the

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Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the [#permalink] New post 14 Jun 2008, 06:34
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56% (02:09) correct 44% (01:06) wrong based on 641 sessions
Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world have caused dramatic increases in the price of cotton on the world market. By contrast, the price of soybeans has long remained stable. Knowing that cotton plants mature quickly, many soybean growers in Ortovia plan to cease growing soybeans and begin raising cotton instead, thereby taking advantage of the high price of cotton to increase their income significantly, at least over the next several years.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the plan’s chances for success?

(A) The cost of raising soybeans has increased significantly over the past several years and is expected to continue to climb.
(B) Tests of a newly developed, inexpensive pesticide have shown it to be both environmentally safe and effective against the insects that have infested cotton crops.
(C) In the past several years, there has been no sharp increase in the demand for cotton and for goods made out of cotton.
(D) Few consumers would be willing to pay significantly higher prices for cotton goods than they are now paying.
(E) The species of insect that has infested cotton plants has never been known to attack soybean plants.
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 14 Jun 2008, 06:46
i went for C, thought Im not sure. My reasoning is that since the demand has not increased at all, then all that is going to result is a glut of cotton on the market, which means that supply is very high and the farmers will not necessarily get the revenue they expect.
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 14 Jun 2008, 06:48
prasannar wrote:
Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world have caused dramatic increases in the price of cotton on the world market. By contrast, the price of soybeans has long remained stable. Knowing that cotton plants mature quickly, many soybean growers in Ortovia plan to cease growing soybeans and begin raising cotton instead, thereby taking advantage of the high price of cotton to increase their income significantly, at least over the next several years.


Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the plan’s chances for success?



A. The cost of raising soybeans has increased significantly over the past several years and is expected to continue to climb.
strengthens instead of weakens
B. Tests of a newly developed, inexpensive pesticide have shown it to be both environmentally safe and effective against the insects that have infested cotton crops. looks good..but i think this is a trap, remember we have to weaken the conclusion

C. In the past several years, there has been no sharp increase in the demand for cotton and for goods made out of cotton.
demand is steady , but supply is lower so this one is out
D. Few consumers would be willing to pay significantly higher prices for cotton goods than they are now paying.

E. The species of insect that has infested cotton plants has never been known to attack soybean plants. irrelevant




I found it really tough between B and D. B initially looks good, but we are trying to weaken the conclusion that High Price of cotton would mean bonanza for farmers. With D we know that with high price, the demand will go down and therefore this won't be as profitable for the farmers as they think.
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 14 Jun 2008, 10:07
i feel B is best..

i was also stuck between B and D

if i have to weaken the argument, i somehow have to weaken its assumption..and assumption is that cotton prices have gone up due to shortage of supply and that is due to infestation..

so B directly weakens that..

D while correct..what if cotton has other uses other than consumer market? maybe its used for cotton seed extraction oil that is used as a bio-fuel??
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 14 Jun 2008, 11:03
I would select C on a d-day but after reading other peoples reasoning I m confused .
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 14 Jun 2008, 11:15
The plan is to grow cotton and make money / profit out of it

option D directly attacks the main purpose of making money ......

B only attacks at the supply position of cotton

so to me out of B and D , D is more appropriate

whats the OA
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 14 Jun 2008, 12:10
maulikmajithia wrote:
The plan is to grow cotton and make money / profit out of it

option D directly attacks the main purpose of making money ......

B only attacks at the supply position of cotton

so to me out of B and D , D is more appropriate

whats the OA



C says that there is no sharp increase in Demand. So lets say this is true. Two things however effect price. supply and demand. this question is all bout supply and that fact that its low,,ie prices are extremely high. So I ruled this one out since it doesn't weaken at all. If on the other hand C said that there has been a sharp decrease in Demand, i'd go for it.
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 15 Jun 2008, 21:48
OA is B
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 15 Jun 2008, 22:43
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I agree with OA,

Clearly the fight is between B and D

one inportant point against D - it says there'll be few customers willing to pay "significantly" higher prices than today's price. Question stem clearly says that even today's cotton prices are on a higher side. So even if farmers dont get "significant" increase from today's price, they'll still be making profits.... they Key here is "significant".

Last edited by durgesh79 on 18 Jun 2008, 20:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 15 Jun 2008, 23:06
Late but I'd say its B. If a pesticide will fix cotton infestation, then the prices will drop over the next few years. Hence the conclusion is weakened.
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 18 Jun 2008, 11:56
prasannar wrote:
Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world have caused dramatic increases in the price of cotton on the world market. By contrast, the price of soybeans has long remained stable. Knowing that cotton plants mature quickly, many soybean growers in Ortovia plan to cease growing soybeans and begin raising cotton instead, thereby taking advantage of the high price of cotton to increase their income significantly, at least over the next several years.


Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the plan’s chances for success?



A. The cost of raising soybeans has increased significantly over the past several years and is expected to continue to climb.

B. Tests of a newly developed, inexpensive pesticide have shown it to be both environmentally safe and effective against the insects that have infested cotton crops.

C. In the past several years, there has been no sharp increase in the demand for cotton and for goods made out of cotton.

D. Few consumers would be willing to pay significantly higher prices for cotton goods than they are now paying.

E. The species of insect that has infested cotton plants has never been known to attack soybean plants.


Will gow with B here as the pesticide may eradicate the insects infesting cotton crops soon and the prices will again drop pretty soon and hence the plan might not reap the expected benefits.
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 09 Jul 2010, 06:33
I went with C :( but, after reading the reasoning , I agree with OA
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 09 Jul 2010, 08:36
I'd have to say B. The fact that B can lead to cotton prices dropping might spell disaster for the proposal. As for D, yes, few consumers are willing to pay for higher prices for cotton, but that doesn't mean that pricing would go down. It can remain at the current high level.
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 09 Jul 2010, 19:33
Yes B is convincing.

Altough i'd choosen C initially, but i missed the point that cotton prices are already high.
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 09 Jul 2010, 19:49
I definitely fell for D. I could see why B would work, but it seems to follow a long line of causation in order to really weaken the conclusion...
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 10 Jul 2010, 02:08
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I did a few practice CR today and what I now try to remember is that words in each CR question and answer are used to try to eliminate answer choices or make them the best choice.

In this question the phrase "at least over the next several years" jumped out at me.

The conclusion (by the farmers in Ortovia) is: income from cotton over several years > income from soybeans over several years.

The assumptions I considered are as follows:
*Income is dependent on the selling price of one unit of cotton
**Insects will continue in future years
***There is adequate supply of cotton if there are no insects

The premise: "Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world have caused dramatic increases in the price of cotton on the world market"
Depends on assumption *** (adequate world supply). If there was a shortage in world production the infestation would "contribute to rising prices" not "cause" rising prices.

With this in mind we need to weaken the plan by showing some way that income will not be high for the next several years. So we need to find a reason why the farmers should stick with soybeans.

Choice B is the only choice that impacts the income in coming years.

(A) The cost of raising soybeans has increased significantly over the past several years and is expected to continue to climb.
This supports a switch to cotton, rising costs will lead to reduced income from soybeans in the future.
(B) Tests of a newly developed, inexpensive pesticide have shown it to be both environmentally safe and effective against the insects that have infested cotton crops. This would weaken the conclusion, by attacking the assumption that insects will continue to affect cotton.
(C) In the past several years, there has been no sharp increase in the demand for cotton and for goods made out of cotton.
Either outside the scope, and has no impact either way.
(D) Few consumers would be willing to pay significantly higher prices for cotton goods than they are now paying.
This says cotton price is maxed out now, there is not much potential for any additional gains. But it does not weaken the plan. If there are still insect problems, we can make money selling the cotton at current prices.
(E) The species of insect that has infested cotton plants has never been known to attack soybean plants.[/quote]
Does not give a reason why the plan will fail.
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 10 Jul 2010, 02:45
I went for C . But after reading views kinda convinced with B.

C does not tells trend about " next several years "

while B shows a bright future for forthcoming years with growing cotton.


& D talks about making more profit - " pay significantly higher prices for cotton goods than they are now paying " - BUtthe farmers can still make profit selling at current price.

Good Question.
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 10 Jul 2010, 07:44
I went with B as it is the only one which directly attacks the argument: Because of pests cotton price increased.
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 10 Jul 2010, 10:08
I would go for B.
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Re: CR: Insect Infestation [#permalink] New post 10 Jul 2010, 18:12
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Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world have caused dramatic increases in the price of cotton on the world market. By contrast, the price of soybeans has long remained stable. Knowing that cotton plants mature quickly, many soybean growers in Ortovia plan to cease growing soybeans and begin raising cotton instead, thereby taking advantage of the high price of cotton to increase their income significantly, at least over the next several years.

Solution:
p1: Cotton Price Increase ( insect infection)
p2:Soyabean price stable
plan :shift of Soyabean producers --------- cotton producers( increased cotton price , quick maturity )

Cause Effect:
insect infestation ----- Price increase(cotton) ----- shift from ( Soyabean producers to cotton producers )
primary cause ------ Effect 1 ----- Final effect.

inorder to weaken, we have to attack the primary cause.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the plan’s chances for success?

(A) The cost of raising soybeans has increased significantly over the past several years and is expected to continue to climb. ( attack the final effect ) - wrong

(B) Tests of a newly developed, inexpensive pesticide have shown it to be both environmentally safe and effective against the insects that have infested cotton crops. ( attack the root cause ) - Correct

(C) In the past several years, there has been no sharp increase in the demand for cotton and for goods made out of cotton. ( Demand of cotton not given - Assumption attacking the Effect1 ) - Wrong

(D) Few consumers would be willing to pay significantly higher prices for cotton goods than they are now paying.
( increasing in cotton price - attract new people in - support the plan ) - Wrong

(E) The species of insect that has infested cotton plants has never been known to attack soybean plants.
( nothing can be done with it) - wrong

This is how i perceived....
Re: CR: Insect Infestation   [#permalink] 10 Jul 2010, 18:12
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