Consulting2Finance wrote:
HCF, thanks for putting this together, although as a small note I was WL R2. I was the first to report a WL since I got the email late at night while having trouble sleeping over my Booth waitlist earlier that day. FML.
But anyway: If I take your +20% assumption to account for under reported admits and also apply it to the BTG number you apply, that means there are roughly 180 admits so far between BTG and GC. Using last year's yield and a class size of 655, Kellogg admitted roughly 1100 students last year (the front page says 1112). Therefore BTG and GC admits represent roughly 16% of the admitted class so far (this may be high since some people likely post on both sites and would be double counted).
If we assume that BTG and GC combined represent 1/5 of acceptees (I think a fair assumption that may be higher since we are talking about people with good enough applications to get in and the two largest forums out there) that means we have roughly 900 acceptees so far. If Kellogg repeats its traditional yield of around 60% that leaves 115 spots for the class of 2014 (give or take). If we expect the yield on the waitlist to be higher, say 75% (which is north of Wharton's yield), that leaves roughly 150 more admits from the waitlist and R3. Again if we apply the 20% rule that means there are roughly 500 people on the waitlist plus R3 applicants for 150 spots. On its surface a 500 person waitlist seems way too high but we'll leave it for now.
That seems like fairly decent odds to be honest, even with what seems to be a very overstated waitlist number of 500. I honeslty have no idea how many apps come in for round 3 but given how many people typically get in from that round, it has to be de minimus. Even if we say there are 100 great aps from R3 that are as solid as the waitlisted R1 and R2 folks, we still have a 25% chance of getting in. In actuality the chance may be much higher.
And this is with me making assumptions that skew towards us not getting in. The only assumption that you could debate that hurts our chances is my assumption that 20% of applicants post on BTG and GC. However even if that is high, its likely at least partially counterbalanced by my other assumptions.
We're nerding out on a whole new level here - love it! I personally think that both these forums self-select members in such a way that the members are probably more qualified and more driven than the average applicant. For example the acceptance rate in this forum for Kellogg 2012 so far is 60/234 = 26% versus the 20% rate of acceptance in the latest intake. In that sense, while I don't think that 20% of the
total applicant pool have registered on these two forums, the GC+BTG
accepted pool may still make up 20% of the total accepted pool. Also, I would estimate a 10% overlap of registered users in both the forums from my daily observations. Often, I'll see someone post here and then on BTG right after. Using that math, there are only 800 acceptees at this time.
As for the waitlisters, its 44+46=90, less the 10% double-counting adjustment, leaving us with 81. Using the 20% rule here, that gives us roughly 400 waitlisters - still high, but probably more realistic.
Even if we bump up the R3 "strong applicants" to 200, that still means 600 people fighting for 300 acceptance letters, giving us a 50-50 chance. BOOM!
Haha, that seems way high but the math don't lie
PS: I fixed your name on the list