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Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the

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Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 14 Aug 2012, 23:13
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Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the current year it has been 4 percent. We can conclude that inflation is on an upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?
(A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.
(B) Last year a dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
(C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay raises constitute a force causing further inflation.
(D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a ten-year low.
(E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant degree.
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

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Re: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 15 Aug 2012, 03:17
PUNEETSCHDV wrote:
Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the current year it has been 4 percent. We can conclude that inflation is on an upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?
(A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.
(B) Last year a dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
(C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay raises constitute a force causing further inflation.
(D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a ten-year low.
(E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant degree.


answer is B. it clearly indicates that the situation is temporary and may not continue. hence weakening the conclusion.
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Re: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 15 Aug 2012, 03:38
Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the current year it has been 4 percent. We can conclude that inflation is on an upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?

We need an AC which can tell us that this increment in inflation from 1.2% to 4% will not increase further.

(A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.
whatever data is taken; this AC is not weakening the conclusion.
(B) Last year a dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
Correct- this shows that the inflation went down to 1.2% due to oil price fall but regained to 4% , which is the stable annual rate.
(C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay raises constitute a force causing further inflation.
not weakening;strengthening - incorrect
(D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a ten-year low.
doesn't signify anything about the further increase of inflation above 4%-incorrect
(E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant degree.
out of scope
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Re: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 17 Aug 2012, 23:15
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The 4% is used to suggest that inflation is growing. After all, if the inflation rate was 1.2% in the previous year, then surely that must be the case. However, if the 1.2% represented a lower inflation rate than usual, then an inflation rate of 4% cannot be used as evidence that inflation is an upward trend.

(A) nails this point and elaborates even further by stating that the usual inflation rate is 4%. Therefore, an inflation rate of 4% is a return to business as usual, not a sign of an upward trend in inflation.
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Re: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 18 Aug 2012, 00:35
The stable rate of inflation is 4%. The rate of inflation came down to 1.2% due to temporarily reduction in oil prices and it again came to 4%, so this year the rate will be 4%, not more as the stable rate is 4%.

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Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 02 Jul 2013, 00:03
Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the current year it has been 4 percent. We can conclude that inflation is on upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.

Which of the following if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?
A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.
B) Last year the dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay rises constitute a force causing further inflation.
D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a 10 year low.
E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant change.

Please provide detailed explanations if possible.
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Re: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 02 Jul 2013, 00:38
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nitin6305 wrote:
Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the current year it has been 4 percent. We can conclude that inflation is on upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.

Which of the following if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?
A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.
B) Last year the dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay rises constitute a force causing further inflation.
D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a 10 year low.
E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant change.

Please provide detailed explanations if possible.


Hi nitin

I'm glad to elaborate.

ANALYZE THE STIMULUS:

Fact: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent,
Fact: The current year it has been 4 percent.
Conclusion: inflation is on upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.

The question uses a popular logical fallacy: “Using several points to conclude a trend”. KEYWORD here is “upward trend”. To weaken the conclusion, you can show that the data provided in the stimulus does not represent the overall trend.


ANALYZE EACH ANSWER:

A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.
Wrong. The point needs to be attacked is the result – upward trend, not the method (economic data vs all available data)

B) Last year the dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
Correct. Regularly, the inflation rate is 4%, last year’s inflation rate is only the temporary case. So, the comparison between last year’s inflation rate with current year’s does not reflect the overall trend. ==> Weaken the conclusion.

C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay rises constitute a force causing further inflation.
Wrong. Out of scope because C goes too far. In addition, the key point to attack is the invalid comparison between last year’s inflation rate and current year’s.

D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a 10 year low.
Wrong. If it’s true, how does it weaken the conclusion. What if in the years before last year, the inflation rates were stable at 4%?.

E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant change.
Wrong. Out of scope. Nothing about “government intervention”.

Hope it helps.
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Re: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 02 Jul 2013, 02:16
pqhai wrote:
nitin6305 wrote:
Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the current year it has been 4 percent. We can conclude that inflation is on upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.

Which of the following if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?
A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.
B) Last year the dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay rises constitute a force causing further inflation.
D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a 10 year low.
E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant change.

Please provide detailed explanations if possible.


Hi nitin

I'm glad to elaborate.

ANALYZE THE STIMULUS:

Fact: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent,
Fact: The current year it has been 4 percent.
Conclusion: inflation is on upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.

The question uses a popular logical fallacy: “Using several points to conclude a trend”. KEYWORD here is “upward trend”. To weaken the conclusion, you can show that the data provided in the stimulus does not represent the overall trend.


ANALYZE EACH ANSWER:

A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.
Wrong. The point needs to be attacked is the result – upward trend, not the method (economic data vs all available data)

B) Last year the dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
Correct. Regularly, the inflation rate is 4%, last year’s inflation rate is only the temporary case. So, the comparison between last year’s inflation rate with current year’s does not reflect the overall trend. ==> Weaken the conclusion.

C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay rises constitute a force causing further inflation.
Wrong. Out of scope because C goes too far. In addition, the key point to attack is the invalid comparison between last year’s inflation rate and current year’s.

D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a 10 year low.
Wrong. If it’s true, how does it weaken the conclusion. What if in the years before last year, the inflation rates were stable at 4%?.

E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant change.
Wrong. Out of scope. Nothing about “government intervention”.

Hope it helps.


I almost understood the reasoning completely.
My only doubt is with option D, " if all the years before last year the rate of inflation was more than 1.2% or lets say if it was stable 4%, and it dropped to 1.2% for just one year. Subsequently, the rate became stable again as 4% , so doesn't it mean that there is no upward trend ?"
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Re: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 02 Jul 2013, 08:50
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nitin6305 wrote:
I almost understood the reasoning completely.
My only doubt is with option D, " if all the years before last year the rate of inflation was more than 1.2% or lets say if it was stable 4%, and it dropped to 1.2% for just one year. Subsequently, the rate became stable again as 4% , so doesn't it mean that there is no upward trend ?"


Hi nitin

You have a very good question.

There would be no upward trend, if only last year inflation rate dropped to 1.2%. Because:

(1) The conclusion is " inflation is on upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year". If the next year the inflation rate will be stable at 4%, you CANNOT conclude that the inflation is on upward trend, and the rate will be still higher.

(2) If you base only on data of two years (last year and current year) to conclude the upward trend, why don't you conclude the downward trend for the last year and the year before last year (4% ==> 2%). Hence, your conclusion is not strong enough to conclude the inflation is on upward trend.

Hope it's clear.
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Re: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 02 Jul 2013, 18:51
nitin6305 wrote:
pqhai wrote:
nitin6305 wrote:
Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the current year it has been 4 percent. We can conclude that inflation is on upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.

Which of the following if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?
A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.
B) Last year the dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay rises constitute a force causing further inflation.
D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a 10 year low.
E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant change.

Please provide detailed explanations if possible.


Hi nitin

I'm glad to elaborate.

ANALYZE THE STIMULUS:

Fact: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent,
Fact: The current year it has been 4 percent.
Conclusion: inflation is on upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.

The question uses a popular logical fallacy: “Using several points to conclude a trend”. KEYWORD here is “upward trend”. To weaken the conclusion, you can show that the data provided in the stimulus does not represent the overall trend.


ANALYZE EACH ANSWER:

A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.
Wrong. The point needs to be attacked is the result – upward trend, not the method (economic data vs all available data)

B) Last year the dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
Correct. Regularly, the inflation rate is 4%, last year’s inflation rate is only the temporary case. So, the comparison between last year’s inflation rate with current year’s does not reflect the overall trend. ==> Weaken the conclusion.

C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay rises constitute a force causing further inflation.
Wrong. Out of scope because C goes too far. In addition, the key point to attack is the invalid comparison between last year’s inflation rate and current year’s.

D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a 10 year low.
Wrong. If it’s true, how does it weaken the conclusion. What if in the years before last year, the inflation rates were stable at 4%?.

E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant change.
Wrong. Out of scope. Nothing about “government intervention”.

Hope it helps.


I almost understood the reasoning completely.
My only doubt is with option D, " if all the years before last year the rate of inflation was more than 1.2% or lets say if it was stable 4%, and it dropped to 1.2% for just one year. Subsequently, the rate became stable again as 4% , so doesn't it mean that there is no upward trend ?"



the same doubt has come across me
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Re: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 02 Jul 2013, 18:55
pqhai wrote:
nitin6305 wrote:
I almost understood the reasoning completely.
My only doubt is with option D, " if all the years before last year the rate of inflation was more than 1.2% or lets say if it was stable 4%, and it dropped to 1.2% for just one year. Subsequently, the rate became stable again as 4% , so doesn't it mean that there is no upward trend ?"


Hi nitin

You have a very good question.

There would be no upward trend, if only last year inflation rate dropped to 1.2%. Because:

(1) The conclusion is " inflation is on upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year". If the next year the inflation rate will be stable at 4%, you CANNOT conclude that the inflation is on upward trend, and the rate will be still higher.

(2) If you base only on data of two years (last year and current year) to conclude the upward trend, why don't you conclude the downward trend for the last year and the year before last year (4% ==> 2%). Hence, your conclusion is not strong enough to conclude the inflation is on upward trend.

Hope it's clear.



If you base only on data of two years (last year and current year) to conclude the upward trend, why don't you conclude the downward trend for the last year and the year before last year (4% ==> 2%). Hence, your conclusion is not strong enough to conclude the inflation is on upward trend.

doesnt this mean it is also actually weakining the conclusion of upward trend
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Re: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 02 Jul 2013, 21:34
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adg142000 wrote:
pqhai wrote:
nitin6305 wrote:
I almost understood the reasoning completely.
My only doubt is with option D, " if all the years before last year the rate of inflation was more than 1.2% or lets say if it was stable 4%, and it dropped to 1.2% for just one year. Subsequently, the rate became stable again as 4% , so doesn't it mean that there is no upward trend ?"


Hi nitin

You have a very good question.

There would be no upward trend, if only last year inflation rate dropped to 1.2%. Because:

(1) The conclusion is " inflation is on upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year". If the next year the inflation rate will be stable at 4%, you CANNOT conclude that the inflation is on upward trend, and the rate will be still higher.

(2) If you base only on data of two years (last year and current year) to conclude the upward trend, why don't you conclude the downward trend for the last year and the year before last year (4% ==> 2%). Hence, your conclusion is not strong enough to conclude the inflation is on upward trend.

Hope it's clear.



If you base only on data of two years (last year and current year) to conclude the upward trend, why don't you conclude the downward trend for the last year and the year before last year (4% ==> 2%). Hence, your conclusion is not strong enough to conclude the inflation is on upward trend.

doesnt this mean it is also actually weakining the conclusion of upward trend


Hi adg142000

This is just an example I used to clarify nitin's doubt about option D. Before answer your question, I just want to clarify D a bit.

D says: "The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a ten-year low".
Thus, the inflation rates pattern should be: HIGH (the year before last year) ==> LOW (last year) ==> HIGH (current year).

I used my example to show: if we use only data from last year to current year to conclude inflation is on upward trend ==> we could be wrong. Because if we use data from the year before last year to last year ==> we can also conclude inflation is on downward trend.

Your question is: does the second part (conclusion about downward trend) actually weaken the main conclusion? If it does, D may be right?

I would say no, the second part of my example just shows the comparison used in the stimulus is invalid. Because if can say the inflation is on upward by using only data of two years, we can also conclude the inflation is on downward by using data from other two years. The reverse pattern is also true, if we use only data from two years to conclude inflation is on downward (It is your inquiry), we can also use data from last year to current year to weaken the "new" conclusion (inflation is on downward). In short, D is not strong enough to weaken the main conclusion, because it's half right, half wrong.

Hope it clears your doubt.
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Re: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 27 Aug 2013, 12:44
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Re: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the [#permalink] New post 18 Apr 2014, 06:53
PUNEETSCHDV wrote:
Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the current year it has been 4 percent. We can conclude that inflation is on an upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?
(A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.
(B) Last year a dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
(C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay raises constitute a force causing further inflation.
(D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a ten-year low.
(E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant degree.



I will try explaining this one!!!!

Conclusion: inflation is on an upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.

Assumption: Inflation will always have a pattern
There are no unusual things happened to say that inflation rate will change

(A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data. - Irrelevant information
(B) Last year a dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent. - Weakener Says that Last year dip in Oil price brought the inflation down to 1.2 from stable point of 4. So same stable inflation point will be maintained unless there is no unusual dip in oil price, or....
(C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay raises constitute a force causing further inflation. - No point to say there will be increase in the Pay next year
(D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a ten-year low. - irrelevant - 10 years low inflation says nothing about the next year rate of inflation
(E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant degree - Again this has nothing to do with the next year inflation rate

Correct me if i am wrong.
Re: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the   [#permalink] 18 Apr 2014, 06:53
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