i sat through a mba consultant info session and the lady told us that the number of applications is expected to be high (but not as high as what was seen in 2009).
she also said that (depending on the school obviously) that most schools saw an increase in rd2 applications.... (i.e., rd1 becoming SLIGHTLY less competitive) in 2010. No sure how that'll play out for the 2011 application year.
take this news w/ a grain of salt... you shouldn't be steered into thinking that your chances are now better for rd1 (since these statistics may fluctuate widely every year). just apply when you are ready.
kudos if you like me (or my post)