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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an

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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an [#permalink] New post 26 Mar 2004, 14:19
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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author┬б┬пs position that the meteorologists┬б┬п claim cannot be evaluated?

A. Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
B. Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical model are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
C. Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
D. Modern weather forecast for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
E. Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.
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 [#permalink] New post 26 Mar 2004, 15:22
B is the best choice. B gives proof that it is actually possible to develop a mathematical model that is accurate.
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 [#permalink] New post 26 Mar 2004, 20:16
I'd go with B on this one.

A is out for me, just on the grounds that it does not provide any concrete "evidence" that the mathematical model will help to evaluate weather forecasts.

C. Studying volcanick eruptions is not helpful in this case, it wouldve been helpful, only in case such models were used at the present time. Thus, no suggestion of weather the models are accurate, as far as we know they could turn out INACCURATE

D seemed tempting at first, but it in fact supports the authors statement. If we consider 80% accuracy acceptable, any deviation to the left will be blamed on the mathematical model. Bottom line....I dont see anything in this answer.

E is directly opposite to what we need to prove. Meteorologist conceding now, only adds value to authors statement.

And so, I am left with B
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 [#permalink] New post 26 Mar 2004, 21:04
lvb9th wrote:
I'd go with B on this one.

A is out for me, just on the grounds that it does not provide any concrete "evidence" that the mathematical model will help to evaluate weather forecasts.

C. Studying volcanick eruptions is not helpful in this case, it wouldve been helpful, only in case such models were used at the present time. Thus, no suggestion of weather the models are accurate, as far as we know they could turn out INACCURATE

D seemed tempting at first, but it in fact supports the authors statement. If we consider 80% accuracy acceptable, any deviation to the left will be blamed on the mathematical model. Bottom line....I dont see anything in this answer.

E is directly opposite to what we need to prove. Meteorologist conceding now, only adds value to authors statement.

And so, I am left with B

OA is B. Very good analysis :rocket
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  [#permalink] 26 Mar 2004, 21:04
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