My theory on Fall 2009 applications- any takers?

Allright so here we go- there is a lot of hooplah about how with the market going down, people will start to go back to school and therefore apps will rise making it more and more difficult for people to get admitted to their school of choice.

I disagree

My reasons-

1. Firstly, as evidenced by most of the folks out here, there is a strong correlation between time and effort put into the application and positive admission results. That is, someone who starts the application process right now (for Fall 2009) has a much high chance of putting together his/her story, deep researching of schools, networking with alumni and all good things rather than someone who starts the process 2-3 months before deadlines. Who are these people? These are the folks that have already established they need an MBA whether the market goes down or not, whether apps rise up or not..they are (usually) not people who have lost jobs quit their work because of market instability etc and are applying to school as a safety option.

2. All those folks out there who have applied to MBA as a "last-ditch" effort to hedge their risks against an unstable market are NOT going to have the best apps. Why? Firstly, since for most of them an MBA is a backup-option as opposed to their primary goal, I believe that will reflect down onto their essays and the Why MBA? Why MBA now? questions.

What does this mean?
This means that overall we SHOULD expect to see admission acceptance ratios DECREASE, because the absolute number of applications will increase, however I think the average quality of applications should still remain about the same or even decrease! That would mean that those individuals (and I am speaking to all of you Fall 2009 applicants on GC) who are starting now and need an MBA not as an "escape" or "backup" but as a logical step route should back themselves to have better and higher quality apps and deeper essays as compared to a banker from bear sterns who got laid off and decides to apply to bschool as a safety option. So even though the number of apps increases and the yields go down, those folks who should be admitted should still back themselves up rather than get discouraged..

I understand I have no statistics to back me up, but hey thats my theory! All I am saying is that I think the application process is efficient enough to "weed-out" folks who are applying just for the heck of it rather than as a genuine well-researched natural next step in their career progression. This is obviously a blatant generalization and the i-banker from bear sterns may actually end up at a good school if he is lucky and puts together something good on the spot, but by and large these last-minute market followers should be weeded out by the process.

Any thoughts guys?