Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East : GMAT Critical Reasoning (CR)
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# Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East

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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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27 Aug 2012, 10:51
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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

I picked D

i would like to know why is not D and the real level of this question based on your judgment. I supposed the tag

Thanks
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Afr [#permalink]

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27 Aug 2012, 12:56
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This is an "explain the discrepancy" question (or as I sometimes call them, "explain the surprise"):

PREMISE 1: RVF vaccine too expensive to use all the time (more expensive than damage caused)
PREMISE 2: RVF vaccine needs to be used 1 mo+ before outbreak occurs
EXPECTATION: RVF vaccine will not be used
SURPRISE: RVF vaccine will be used soon anyway

Our task: Figure out how the premises AND the surprise could all be true at once. To do that, we need a way to predict the outbreak (Premise 1), and to do so at least 1 month in advance (Premise 2). (E) demonstrates very nicely how this is possible, touching on both premises, and also noting that the study is recent thereby explaining why we didn't figure this out before. (D) is a sad story, but doesn't tell us how these farmers could afford the vaccine OR how they could predict an outbreak, so it doesn't connect to either premise.

Level is probably about a 500-600.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Afr [#permalink]

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27 Aug 2012, 14:11
rjacobsMGMAT wrote:
This is an "explain the discrepancy" question (or as I sometimes call them, "explain the surprise"):

PREMISE 1: RVF vaccine too expensive to use all the time (more expensive than damage caused)
PREMISE 2: RVF vaccine needs to be used 1 mo+ before outbreak occurs
EXPECTATION: RVF vaccine will not be used
SURPRISE: RVF vaccine will be used soon anyway

Our task: Figure out how the premises AND the surprise could all be true at once. To do that, we need a way to predict the outbreak (Premise 1), and to do so at least 1 month in advance (Premise 2). (E) demonstrates very nicely how this is possible, touching on both premises, and also noting that the study is recent thereby explaining why we didn't figure this out before. (D) is a sad story, but doesn't tell us how these farmers could afford the vaccine OR how they could predict an outbreak, so it doesn't connect to either premise.

Level is probably about a 500-600.

Pretty Clear
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Afr [#permalink]

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27 Aug 2012, 14:39
Quote:
Level is probably about a 500-600.

Really? 500-600? i had to read some sentences twice to understand them. it was not very difficult to reason though.

my reasoning for E was that:

Conclu - Experts predict use of vaccine will increase.
reasons for not increasing
1. Cost
2. one month validity

so, before I read the answers, I thought, either someone should have found a cheaper vaccine or the validity would increase by more than a month.

A-D were nowhere near. E, though not one of what I had guess, was on similar lines. So, I concluded E.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Afr [#permalink]

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27 Aug 2012, 15:00
akrish1982 wrote:
Quote:
Level is probably about a 500-600.

Really? 500-600? i had to read some sentences twice to understand them. it was not very difficult to reason though.

my reasoning for E was that:

Conclu - Experts predict use of vaccine will increase.
reasons for not increasing
1. Cost
2. one month validity

so, before I read the answers, I thought, either someone should have found a cheaper vaccine or the validity would increase by more than a month.

A-D were nowhere near. E, though not one of what I had guess, was on similar lines. So, I concluded E.

I agree with this level because for me the argument was straighforward. Simply, I picked the wrong question and sometimes (rarely) I do not understand my mistake.

This question came after a drill of 50 CR in a row.........may be I was tired
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Afr [#permalink]

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28 Aug 2012, 02:32
rjacobsMGMAT wrote:
This is an "explain the discrepancy" question (or as I sometimes call them, "explain the surprise"):

PREMISE 1: RVF vaccine too expensive to use all the time (more expensive than damage caused)
PREMISE 2: RVF vaccine needs to be used 1 mo+ before outbreak occurs
EXPECTATION: RVF vaccine will not be used
SURPRISE: RVF vaccine will be used soon anyway

Our task: Figure out how the premises AND the surprise could all be true at once. To do that, we need a way to predict the outbreak (Premise 1), and to do so at least 1 month in advance (Premise 2). (E) demonstrates very nicely how this is possible, touching on both premises, and also noting that the study is recent thereby explaining why we didn't figure this out before. (D) is a sad story, but doesn't tell us how these farmers could afford the vaccine OR how they could predict an outbreak, so it doesn't connect to either premise.

Level is probably about a 500-600.

IMO none of the above choices is the correct option. A - D can be ruled out completely. Per option E it says some identifiable climatic conditions are followed by an outbreak. Does that not mean that these climate conditions come after the outbreak not before? If they are coming after then how can we detect this outbreak earlier?
"E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever."
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Afr [#permalink]

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12 Sep 2012, 20:36
sanki779 wrote:
rjacobsMGMAT wrote:
This is an "explain the discrepancy" question (or as I sometimes call them, "explain the surprise"):

PREMISE 1: RVF vaccine too expensive to use all the time (more expensive than damage caused)
PREMISE 2: RVF vaccine needs to be used 1 mo+ before outbreak occurs
EXPECTATION: RVF vaccine will not be used
SURPRISE: RVF vaccine will be used soon anyway

Our task: Figure out how the premises AND the surprise could all be true at once. To do that, we need a way to predict the outbreak (Premise 1), and to do so at least 1 month in advance (Premise 2). (E) demonstrates very nicely how this is possible, touching on both premises, and also noting that the study is recent thereby explaining why we didn't figure this out before. (D) is a sad story, but doesn't tell us how these farmers could afford the vaccine OR how they could predict an outbreak, so it doesn't connect to either premise.

Level is probably about a 500-600.

IMO none of the above choices is the correct option. A - D can be ruled out completely. Per option E it says some identifiable climatic conditions are followed by an outbreak. Does that not mean that these climate conditions come after the outbreak not before? If they are coming after then how can we detect this outbreak earlier?
"E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever."

Nope, the option says the climatic conditions were followed by the outbreak of the Rift Valley fever.
Hence , this makes option E correct .
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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13 Sep 2012, 00:57
carcass wrote:
Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

I picked D

i would like to know why is not D and the real level of this question based on your judgment. I supposed the tag

Thanks

Prediction - that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Anything which strengthen the prediction is our answer.

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides. (Irrelevant - Eliminate)
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak. (Irrelevant - Eliminate)
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand. (Close – Keep it for now)
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever. (Weakens the prediction - Eliminate)
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever. (This is our answer because if we know the time when the outbreak is going to happen we can be prepared with the vaccine, thus increasing the production)
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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27 Oct 2012, 03:38
Decode this part of premise and you will be through " it is not effective until a month after vaccination"
<< Vaccine is effective only after a month of vaccination, Hence to make it effective, livestock should be vaccinated atleast a month in advance of the outbreak, But "do we know the time of vaccination">>>

Conclusion : Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
We need to support

If the use of vaccine will increse that means both the prob i.e. the cost or the time is going to be eliminated or either
Look for an option that solves the problem

E says that the 5 months before the identifiable climate hence the time is known

Hence E supports
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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27 Oct 2012, 03:39
For sure this is not 500 - 600 level prob its above 600 level
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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31 Jul 2014, 14:58
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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24 Aug 2015, 07:49
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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02 May 2016, 02:22
clearly option E is the strengthener in this case. It gives us a reason why use of vaccine will increase significantly over the next few years
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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04 May 2016, 07:27
Stem says: vaccine is not used because it is expensive and it takes a month to be effective. A farmer who wants to protect his cattle would have to use it all the time and that would cost too much. Result: they don't use it, and cattle die in outbreaks.
However the argument predicts a higher level of vaccination in the future. What would lead to this:

Assumptions:
- Vaccines would become cheaper
- Vaccines would take less than a month to be effective or perhaps would immediately effective
- Or an outbreak could become predictable, in which case farmers would only need to start vaccinating cattle a month before the outbreak, spending less money on vaccinations
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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05 Aug 2016, 00:00
Icecream87 wrote:
Stem says: vaccine is not used because it is expensive and it takes a month to be effective. A farmer who wants to protect his cattle would have to use it all the time and that would cost too much. Result: they don't use it, and cattle die in outbreaks.
However the argument predicts a higher level of vaccination in the future. What would lead to this:

Assumptions:
- Vaccines would become cheaper
- Vaccines would take less than a month to be effective or perhaps would immediately effective
- Or an outbreak could become predictable, in which case farmers would only need to start vaccinating cattle a month before the outbreak, spending less money on vaccinations

did not understand how option 'E' is correct.

option E says some identifiable climatic conditions are followed by an outbreak. So, these climate conditions come after the outbreak? If they are coming after then how can we predict this outbreak earlier? Please advise
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East   [#permalink] 05 Aug 2016, 00:00
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