Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East : GMAT Critical Reasoning (CR)
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# Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East

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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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02 Apr 2008, 17:55
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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?
A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

My American friend and I have been arguing for 2 days...Pls explain your answer!
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

Last edited by Zarrolou on 26 Jul 2013, 08:44, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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26 Jul 2013, 08:42
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fozzzy wrote:
Can someone provide a detailed analysis on this one. Thanks!

Vaccine's drawbacks:
I)It is too expensive
II)It is not effective until a month after vaccination

Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?

What answer are we looking for? It will be something that will eliminate a current defect of the vaccine, or will be an advantage that will balance everything: like "has been found that the vaccine makes the cattle immune to every type of disease and increases its reproductivity rate"(I'm making this up).

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
Irrelevant.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
Maybe... this could be seen as an advantage to use the vaccine, because revenues for the farmers could be lower if they do not use it. We can keep it for now...
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
Irrelevant because it does not offer an argument like those described above.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
This is just a fact that has no impact on the prediction.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
This seems good as well because undermines the drawback #2. If we can predict an outbreak two months before, the vaccine (that takes one month to be effective) could be used more than today.

B and E are the contenders. I would look at the key words there to determine the correct answer.
B unaffected countries often refuse<== so the fact that B presents has already happened before, so it's not something that could change the current scenario and increase the use of the vaccine.
E. Recently published research<== this is a game changer. Recently new data has been released, so the situation described by the argument is actually changed.

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02 Apr 2008, 18:26
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Its E. "Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever."

This research can predict when a Rift Valley fever will break out and give more than a month's warning in advance. ("It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination")
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03 Apr 2008, 02:56
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notahug wrote:
My American friend and I have been arguing for 2 days...Pls explain your answer!

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?
A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

I go for E.

My reasoning;

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so strengthen or weaken the argument.)
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak. (this may be the case , this could be a reason for the countries in East Africa to try to control the disease as revenue is being lost but it is not a strong enough reason)
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand. (the passage does not talk about a large increase in demand it talks about high costs and a month for this drug to be effectiveonce animals have been vaccinated. No direct relationship here)
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever. (this may be true but not strong enough to justify the expert's predictions)
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever. (Identifiable being the keyword. Regular occuring Climatic conditions = Regular Occuring Rift Valley Fever. Countries in East africa have no choice but to try and tackle the disease otherwise it could have adverse effects) no matter what.
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03 Apr 2008, 14:22
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I suspect we can argue about this one till the cows come home. The main assertion is : "experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?"
. Note NEXT FEW YEARS. This is why I deemed A incorrect. A does not provide any support for the next few years. A has been happening forever, so why all of a sudden in the next few years the vaccine demand will grow ? because of new research as described in E.

What is the source of this question ?

notahug wrote:
My American friend and I have been arguing for 2 days...Pls explain your answer!

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?
A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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16 Oct 2013, 09:05
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mohnish104 wrote:
I don't seem to be understanding the language used in E. What I followed was that, certain climatic condition follow 'after' the outbreak. Is it before or after I am unable to follow.

Yeah, the wording is especially designed to cause confusion . But option E is correct.

You would generally say
than
humid conditions are followed by storms. Both are correct though second one is wordy.

Option E says, identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
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02 Apr 2008, 19:27
notahug wrote:
My American friend and I have been arguing for 2 days...Pls explain your answer!

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?
A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

pretty sure it is E.
Problem with vaccine is 1. expensive, 2. one month effective delay
E negates #2 since we know that it will occur two to five months in advance.
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02 Apr 2008, 22:06
One more E.
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02 Apr 2008, 23:25
bsd_lover wrote:
Its E. "Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever."

This research can predict when a Rift Valley fever will break out and give more than a month's warning in advance. ("It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination")

Mouse,

You ran quickly!
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03 Apr 2008, 03:02
haha thanks sondenso .. FYI its not a mouse - its a daemon.

sondenso wrote:
bsd_lover wrote:
Its E. "Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever."

This research can predict when a Rift Valley fever will break out and give more than a month's warning in advance. ("It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination")

Mouse,

You ran quickly!
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03 Apr 2008, 06:10
i Too AGree with E.

but more importantly i would like to see why your american friend had an argument over this.

regards,
Neo
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03 Apr 2008, 06:24
Neochronic wrote:
i Too AGree with E.

but more importantly i would like to see why your american friend had an argument over this.

regards,
Neo

Because he said A, but I come to E

He argued that farmers can not use insecticide, therefore they must use vaccine otherwise no ways to protect their cattles. What's wrong with this reasoning???

Besides, E just says that the outbreak will occur in two-five months, yes it just ensures that if the farmers use the vaccine, there will be enough time for vaccine to prove its effectiveness. Nothing can ensures that the farmers will use it.

I dont have strong counter-argument for his reasoning!

Besides, OA is A
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03 Apr 2008, 06:44
After reading the stem again and looking back at the choices, A makes sense now.
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03 Apr 2008, 07:35
Vavali wrote:
After reading the stem again and looking back at the choices, A makes sense now.

But your previous reasoning is so perfect! I dont see any thing's wrong with it.
I dont always believe in OA. It can be wrong.
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03 Apr 2008, 07:37
Anyone can attack my friend??
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03 Apr 2008, 07:55
notahug wrote:
He argued that farmers can not use insecticide, therefore they must use vaccine otherwise no ways to protect their cattles. What's wrong with this reasoning???

The farmers cannot use insecticide, but can use different method (non-vaccine) altogether.
How about a method that stop the start of mosq outbreak by eliminating all stilled-water pond all over the places...?

The statement doesn't restrict that there are only two methods!
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03 Apr 2008, 08:05
BKK145 nice to see you..hope you are back in full force

I went with A..

A says..you cant control this fever by insecticides alone..that means farmers will have to use the vacine more often...imagine if Farmers used inseticide to kill the mosquitos ..and if insecticides worked..then they wouldnt use the vacines ..A strengthens it..
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03 Apr 2008, 08:22
A has less to do with the argument as a whole than E. I still go for E.
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03 Apr 2008, 10:44
I just searched and it seems that the OA is E..

can someone pls tell us the source of this question
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03 Apr 2008, 13:22
I was first leaning towards E too and I would have done the same if it would appear on Real GMAT.

The conclusion is that the use of the vaccine will increase even though its really not practical to use.

We need to look for something that would tell us that besides all the impractical use of vaccine the demand for the vaccine will improve.

Now A supports the conclusion more strongly than E.

In E: research suggest that its possible to predict the outbreak but nothing states that the research is 100 % correct - it may be right or may be wrong.

A states that any insecticide is ineffective thereby forcing the farmers to use the vaccine and hence the demand will increase.
Re: CR-Fever   [#permalink] 03 Apr 2008, 13:22

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