Thanks. Really appreciate your reasoning.
....
I'm no expert, but I hope you don't mind me sharing my thoughts!
mba1382 wrote:
IMO C
C says that "Turnout among African-Americans between 18 and 25 decreased from 2000 to 2004". Even though it doesn't represent the general % increase for the age-group 18 to 25, it weakens the argument that the candidate made efforts to make the youngsters in the age-group vote in 2004 election, resulting into increase in the 2004 election votes for the age-group 18-25. There might be other reasons for the increase to 39%.
Let's put it this way:
Argument: Number of ballots cast by youth in 2000 was 220/500, but was 232/500 in 2004 -- therefore, voter turnout increased.
A - E: different groups aged 18 - 25
2000
A: 25
B: 40
C: 25
D: 40
E: 90
Voter turnout: 44%
2004
A: 5
B: 47
C: 35
D: 45
E: 100
Voter turnout: 46.4%Despite Group A, voter turnout is still higher in 2004. Had the question stated: "... candidates made more of an effort to appeal to
these younger voters all individual groups, so turnout was slightly higher at 39%", perhaps C could have been a more viable answer... yet still,
B) voter turnout increased, and supposedly, it's because
A) candidates appealed to younger voters -- in other words,
A caused B. So, your reasoning is absolutely correct when you state, "There might be other reasons for the increase to 39%"; we must show that
A may not have caused B -- and answer C does not show this.
__________
mba1382 wrote:
IMO C
E says that "In 2004, a referendum on lowering the legal age for purchasing alcohol to 18 was on the ballot". This actually means that candidates made an effort of bringing referendum to encourage the age-group 18 to 25 to vote in 2004 election. Therefore, this option seems to actually strengthen the argument.
Your reasoning is correct, except that the argument does not state that candidates put the referendum on the ballot to attract youth. The referendum is separate from the election, and what the argument states is
that during the local election, candidates increased youth voter turnout by appealing to them. How they did so is not mentioned, so we cannot assume that their strategy was to use the referendum. So, if E were true, we ask: "Did candidates successfully increase voter turnout because they targeted youth?", our answer would be: "Well, this is possible, but it is also likely that the youth turnout increased because they wanted to vote on the referendum." In other words, A or C caused B. Therefore, we cannot conclude indefinitely that A caused B.