kartelite wrote:
Assuming everyone who applied to Stanford also applied to HBS, the very high yields at both schools would imply that most people admitted to one were rejected at the other. Regardless, as only 100 or so people a year turn down HBS (and many fewer Stanford), the vast majority of people attending Stanford were not accepted at HBS (either rejected/waitlisted, or did not apply - my guess is most are the former). Although, the conditional probability of acceptance at Stanford is I'm sure lower after an HBS rejection.
So, based on GMATClub's stats on the forum (doesn't seem to conform to the numbers from the schools, but this is all purely hypothetical anyways),
Latest class for HBS had 1029 admitted for a class size of 919, so so 110 people chose not to attend HBS. Assume 100 of these people had chosen to go to GSB.
Latest class for GSB had 474 admitted for a class of 398, so 76 people chose not to attend GSB. Assume 65 of these people chose to go to HBS.
So every year, for a class of about 475 admits, you have only about 165 people who got into both HBS and GSB. The probability of an applicant who will only get into only GSB, as opposed to both HBS and GSB is actually higher (no, this says nothing about conditional probability).
Actually after I typed this out I don't actually feel like any of these mean anything. But it's great fun to read the tea leaves and obsess over stats since there's not much else we can do at this point for people who are just waiting.