good handheld/pda to help in better time management

Blackberry pearl was a godsend too. I can send myself a quick email when I think of something while walking down the street - "oh crap! I should call X!" or something like that.

Works quite well.

I like how my todo list looks these days - short and sweet:

3 COMPLETE DARDEN REC LETTER FOR LAZYRECO
5 PREPARE DARDEN INTERVIEW. CREATE 15 MINUTE NARRATIVE ON "TELL ME ABOUT YOURSELF". HIT LD,TM,ET,CS,GM,WD,WN,WM
2 CONFIRM DARDEN TIMES/FLIGHTS/HOTEL

3 CONTACT DARDEN ALUMS RE CURRICULUM TOUGHNESS
2 PANIC
1 CANCEL ALL DARDEN RELATED TASKS

HAHAAHAHAHAHA.

Yea. That bout sums it up.

I slept on it, but haven't changed my mind. Darden's not right for me. I'll probably cancel my trip today and just eat the cost of me ticket.

Last thing to do then is to prepare for my GSB interview. Lord, that means I'll only have applied to 4 - HBS, Kellogg, Chicago, Cornell...

But you got interviews to 3 already (Kellogg mandatory), so your chances should be solid at this point for one of them.

You know thats a good question for those of you good with math.

If the probability of an accept is say, 1/4 at Kellogg, 1/4 at GSB, 1/8 at HBS and 1/3 at Cornell, what is:

1) The probability that all accept?
2) The probability that at least one accepts?

I suck at math and cant solve it.

I think all accept is 1/4 * 1/4 * 1/8 * 1/3 etc.

The other one is trickier. the probability that one accepts is 1/4, if they dont accept (3/4) probability the prob that the next accepts is 1/4, so that means that its 1/4 + (3/4)(1/4) for the first two or 7/16 odds of accept. Now times the odds the next doesnt accept so that means now we have 1/4 + (3/4)(1/4) + (9/16)(1/8) which is 74/128 ... right? so the odds of not having that third accept are 54/128 - so again 74/128 + (54/128)(1/3) ... simplify the first part to 27/64 * 1/3 = 145/192 ...thus 76% of accept?

I suck at math.

helg: Dear Rosemaria. I was very happy to get the interview invitation this week (applied in R1). How optimistic I should be about my admittance chances at this stage Thank you
RosemariaM: Congratulations Getting an interview invitation is a positive step towards admission to the GSB. We plan to invite between 50-60% in Round 1. Prepare, be yourself, and relax. You'll do well

Copyright 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

2) The probability that at least one accepts?

Since the events are mutually exclusive (since the schools are supposed to make the admit decision independently), you can add up the probability of being accepted by each school.

The probability that at least one accepts
= P (K or G or H or C)
= P(K) + P(G) + P(H) + P(C)
= 23/24
= 95.8%

... pack your bags and get ready to fly....

1 - P(None)
1 - (3/4*3/4*7/8*2/3)
43/64
==> 67.185% you in Rhyme

The question is how you came up with individual probabilitys here..

I have been thinking of writing a patented algorithm

which takes -> gmat, gpa, work experience, essay grade, schools acceptance rate etc and comes up with a number for each school!

Well poop. I like the 95% calc more 67% is low.

I suppose it could be higher - I mean I did get a Chicago invite and a cornell did too.

HBS stands at a 1/8 chance.

Going off last years figures for Kellogg, and my and pehilu's analysis, we can estimate an accept rate of between 33.5 and 52% for the midpoints of the 700-740 and 750-800 range, so lets say 35% - 7/20 odds for Kellogg. These may be a bit higher considering my application is truly unique and a professor should be "dropping by" the admissions office to support my application.

Chicago has an invite, we know that last year they gave out 60% interviews and this year are giving out about 50-60%. Their old yield figures were last reported at 67%, and selectivity at 23%. Unfortunately we dont have total number of applicants, so its only a guess but we can at least estimate my odds at better than 23%, and likely somewhat substantially so - maybe about 35% odds here - 7/20 as well. With two alumni recommendations, I'd venture it might actually be higher.

Cornell's an interesting one too. Median GMAT score, 690, which I beat. 36% accept rate, 1797 applicants. 46% yield. If we assume a general interview policy of about 60% which appears to be the norm around most schools, then about 1078 students are interviewed of which 252 attend. To keep that figure with a 46% yield, they'd have to dish out 547 offers, or about 50%. Given I have an interview my odds are thus 1/2 here.

With these figures: 81% odds overall...

Better, but not quite as high as I'd like.

Shouldn't your percentages be a little higher for Chicago and Cornell because you were called in for the interview by invitation only?

You posted just as I started editing my post to include that info

The problem with that is that you'd need source data on which to work. No school is going to just give you their database.