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Senior Manager
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Math Expert
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General Discussion
GMAT Club Legend
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CEO
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Re: Sheila: Health experts generally agree that smoking a tobacco product [#permalink]
Sheila: Health experts generally agree that smoking a tobacco product for many years is very likely to be harmful to the smoker’s health.

Tim: On the contrary, smoking has no effect on health at all: although my grandfather smoked three cigars a day from the age of fourteen, he died at age ninety-six.

A major weakness of Tim’s counterargument is that his counterargument

(A) attempts to refute a probabilistic conclusion by claiming the existence of a single counterexample - CORRECT.

(B) challenges expert opinion on the basis of specific information unavailable to experts in the field - WRONG. Nothing as such is suggested.

(C) describes an individual case that is explicitly discounted as an exception to the experts’ conclusion - WRONG. No it's not discounted. This is 2nd best option.

(D) presupposes that longevity and health status are unrelated to each other in the general population - WRONG. Irrelevant.

(E) tacitly assumes that those health experts who are in agreement on this issue arrived at that agreement independently of one another - WRONG. How they arrived is irrelevant.

Answer A.
Director
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Re: Sheila: Health experts generally agree that smoking a tobacco product [#permalink]
Tim's counterargument has a major weakness, and it can be best explained as follows:

(A) attempts to refute a probabilistic conclusion by claiming the existence of a single counterexample.

Tim is using the example of his grandfather, who lived to be 96 despite smoking three cigars a day from the age of fourteen, as a single counterexample to challenge the general consensus among health experts that smoking for many years is very likely to be harmful. This is a classic example of using a single anecdotal case to counter a probabilistic or general conclusion, which is a weak form of argumentation. The fact that one person lived a long life despite smoking does not negate the statistical evidence and consensus among experts that smoking is harmful to health for the general population.

So, option (A) correctly identifies the major weakness in Tim's counterargument.
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Re: Sheila: Health experts generally agree that smoking a tobacco product [#permalink]
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