kryzak wrote:
I'm wondering, if they say roughly 50% of all applications are "junk" either because of the essays, recommendations or grades/GMAT, that means the acceptance rate for all the top schools are roughly doubled for people like us who are spending time revising and editing our essays over a period of months. If our GMAT/GPA are pretty decent, and our recommenders know to write very specific examples, and we don't bomb our interviews (since supposedly doing well in interviews doesn't change that much), then we probably have a 40% chance of admission to the top 15 schools.
Playing with percentages can give us a false sense of security. So, lets take a specific example. Let's take Kellogg. Assume that there are 4000 applicants and 960 get acceptance - giving a 24% acceptance rate.
Also assume that profiles of 50% of applications are weak in one or more areas. So, 960 applicants get accepted out of 2000 applicants who have good work-history, GMAT/GPA, recommendations, essays and interviews .. i.e. overall strong profiles. From a percentage point of view, we have a 48% chance of getting selected, which seems very high. But from a sheer numbers point of view, we have to beat 1040 very strong applicants (Who, just like you, do not lack in any area) to get accepted.
So, turning a 48% chance into a 100% chance of getting selected by the time your application gets reviewed is a hell lot more difficult than turning your 24% chance into a 48% chance.