First of all I recommend a max of 6 schools, and 3 or 4 for R1 at most. Don't underestimate how much time a solid application takes to put together. Yes the more you do the easier they get since you have more essay material to pull from....HOWEVER most applicants burn out towards the end. Heck I only did 3 R1 apps and was dreading the R2 application process.
While schools say that R1 and R2 are equal thats not true and one look at any data point available online backs that up. Sure the people applying in R1 may be more prepared and stronger but they admit a higher percentage. If you are borderline they will WL and then if you would make it in during R2 you will get in. Schools tend to know who can cut it and wont cant from years of experience and getting an idea of how many apps they get in R1 can tend to give them an idea of how the rest of the season will play out. Personally I think R1 is marginally easier, plus if R1 sees a 10% increase from this year to next but R2 sees a 20% they wont know that so you might make a cut you otherwise wouldnt...if it goes the other way they will just pull more heavily from the WL. This year HBS pulled significantly more from the WL than the past several according to some sources (sandy the HBSguru).
My advice:
R1: Your top 3, go for all reaches if you want in this round...though I think 1 dream, 1 reach, and 1 fairly competitive is a good idea.
R2: 3 more...1 competitive, 1 highly competitive, and 1 safety
How you decide where you are competitive...BE REALISTIC. GMAT, GPA, age, and years of work experience arent what will make you competitive. Its what you do, who you do it for, where you went to school, whats unique about you, your extra curriculars...pretty much are you really going to fit in with the resume book. Some are available online if you look and its shocking to see how impressive almost every student is at all the top 5-10 schools.
If you are considering Kellogg, trust me apply R1. They roll out admits very early in the process. I was admitted on November 27th last year...I didnt have to stress about R2 apps at all. I enjoyed the entire month of december and holidays completely stress free. Now some of us found out well before christmas and others were admitted on the last day...so its not a sure bet you will get accepted in November and not December but if you want Kellogg go early.
Now I know that some demographics are more competitive than others but some schools definitely seem more accepting of those. Take a look at Ross and Duke if you are an Indian. Both are top 15 schools and the Indian members cleaned up at those schools. Indians go to all schools but sorry to say the bar is going to be higher. I must say at the top 5 schools the indians I met were absolutely amazing folks...definitely the cream of the crop.
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Kellogg Class of 2010...still active and willing to help. However, I do not do profile reviews, don't offer predictions on chances and am far to busy to review essays, so save the energy of writing me a PM seeking help for these. If I don't respond to a PM that is not one of the previously mentioned trash can destined messages, please don't take it personally I get so many messages I have a hard to responding to most. The more interesting, compelling, or humorous you message the more likely I am to respond.