Partly because of bad weather, but also partly because some major pepper growers have switched to high-priced cocoa, world production of pepper has been running well below worldwide sales for three years. Pepper is consequently in relatively short supply. The price of pepper has soared in response: it now equals that of cocoa.
Some observers have concluded that the rise in the price of pepper means that the switch by some growers from pepper to cocoa left those growers no better off than if none of them had switched; this conclusion, however, is unwarranted because it can be inferred to be likely thatI know the question looks clumsy,So lets breakdown
Researchers conclusion: some researchers concluded that switch by some growers from pepper to cocoa is no better than not switching..
Authors conclusion: researchers conclusion is baseless.
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(A) those growers could not have foreseen how high the price of pepper would go
nowhere it was mentioned in the passage that the growers switched just because of price.So we cannot assume something that is not mentioned in the argument.Eliminate A.
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(B) the initial cost involved in switching from pepper to cocoa is substantial
This is irrelevant.Okay. What if cocoa profits are so high that the initial cost is negligible? or we don't know how the profits will be(profits...or losses). Other than that the costs are not mentioned in the passage.
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(C) supplies of pepper would not be as low as they are if those growers had not switched crops
this is true. As there many have switched to cocoa.the supplies of pepper fall down and demand has grown because of which prices were increased.Keep this.
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(D) cocoa crops are as susceptible to being reduced by bad weather as are pepper crops
this supports researchers conclusion. we need to prove that researchers conclusion is unwarranted.so eliminate it.
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(E) as more growers turn to growing cocoa, cocoa supplies will increase and the price of cocoa will fall precipitously
we don't talk about cocoa supplies and cocoa prices.It's supporting researchers conclusion.
Eliminate it.
Answer is C