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Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city,

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Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink] New post 17 Feb 2013, 02:00
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Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, illegal immigration is an important issue in the current race for mayor. Of the two candidates for mayor, one supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city’s 9,000 illegal immigrants and the other does not. Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city’s residents are opposed to the plan, while about 35% are in support of the plan. Therefore, the candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor.

All of the following statements weaken the analyst’s argument, EXCEPT:

a. In the city at issue, most voters make their voting decisions based on the candidates’ positions on abortion.
b. Of the 35% of residents who support the plan, some are willing to consider alternate plans for addressing illegal immigration.
c. Many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters.
d. The candidate who supports the plan is the incumbent mayor, and has been elected to four consecutive terms despite taking controversial positions on many important issues.
e. Just under 30% of the city’s residents are illegal immigrants who cannot vote.

Edit: by carcass


[Reveal] Spoiler:
OA soon. Please explain the PoE
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

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Last edited by greatps24 on 17 Feb 2013, 04:10, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CR 700+ : Illegal immigration [#permalink] New post 17 Feb 2013, 02:55
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greatps24 wrote:
Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, illegal immigration is an important issue in the current race for mayor. Of the two candidates for mayor, one supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city’s 9,000 illegal immigrants and the other does not. Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city’s residents are opposed to the plan, while about 35% are in support of the plan. Therefore, the candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor.

All of the following statements weaken the analyst’s argument, EXCEPT:

a. In the city at issue, most voters make their voting decisions based on the candidates’ positions on abortion.
b. Of the 35% of residents who support the plan, some are willing to consider alternate plans for addressing illegal immigration.
c. Many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters.
d. The candidate who supports the plan is the incumbent mayor, and has been elected to four consecutive terms despite taking controversial positions on many important issues.
e. Just under 30% of the city’s residents are illegal immigrants who cannot vote.

[Reveal] Spoiler:
OA soon. Please explain the PoE


(A) If voters make their decision based on abortion then a candidate's position on the illegal immigration proposal will have no effect on his/her candidacy, thus weakening the conclusion.

(C) If many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters then it will put the group which opposes the plan in minority. So, the candidate so opposes the plan may not necessarily win the election. This choice also weakens the conclusion.

(D) This choice directly attacks the assumption that the argument makes - People's opinions decide which candidate will win the election. If a candidate is re-ellected multiple times in spite of his support for controversial issues, then people's opinions do not matter in election.

(E) If around 30% of the residents are illegal immigrants then the percentage of people who oppose the plan would drop to 30%. So the candidate who opposes the plan may not necessarily win the election.
Now the only choice that is left is (b), the answer

Reason why B is correct. If 35% people who support the plan are considering alternate ways to address the immigration, then these people may not vote for the candidate who supports the plan and may vote the candidate who opposes the plan. This choice strengthens the conclusion.

Hope that helps,

Vercules,

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Re: CR 700+ : Illegal immigration [#permalink] New post 17 Feb 2013, 03:47
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Hi Vercules
I agree that B is correct. But was hard to eliminate E. For E we will have to assume that 30% of the illegal immigrants were a part of 65% of people , who opposed the plan, basis on which conclusion was drawn that candidates who support the plan may stand to lose the election.

How would you categorize E with respect to the correct answer types in case of cause and effect reasoning. Is it weakening the survey type of answer.

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Re: CR 700+ : Illegal immigration [#permalink] New post 17 Feb 2013, 06:33
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Archit143 wrote:
Hi Vercules
I agree that B is correct. But was hard to eliminate E. For E we will have to assume that 30% of the illegal immigrants were a part of 65% of people , who opposed the plan, basis on which conclusion was drawn that candidates who support the plan may stand to lose the election.

How would you categorize E with respect to the correct answer types in case of cause and effect reasoning. Is it weakening the survey type of answer.

Archit


Hi Archit,

Yes, for sure it is weakening the argument. But, the argument does not have a cause and effect reasoning. Answer choice (E) is not weakening the survey but the conclusion. It is providing new data about the survey, in light of which the results of the given survey would change, thus, weakening the conclusion.

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Re: CR 700+ : Illegal immigration [#permalink] New post 17 Feb 2013, 07:37
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It's B.
Analysis of Argument :- illegal immigration is an important issue. One candidate plans to deport illegal immigrants whereas other does not. 60% of residents opposed the plan whereas 35% supported it. So the conclusion is, the candidate who oppose the plan will win the election because he enjoys support of 60% residents. There are several things which must have assumed while drawing the conclusion and if did not they will weaken the conclusion. Any choice that contain reasoning reverse of them will be incorrect here 1) all or substantial residents do posses the voting right. 2) all or substantial residents that oppose the plan would actually vote on election day. 3) all or substantial residents that oppose the plan would cast their votes to the candidate who also oppose this plan.

A) Incorrect. This clearly weakens the argument by saying voters do not vote on the basis of candidates' position on illegal migration

B) This choice stays neutral and is correct answer.

C) Incorrect. If substatial voters who oppose the plan have no voting rights then it is difficult for that candidate to win. Weakens the argument.

D) Incorrect. This says there are other factors than illegal immigration on which voters decides whom to vote. Otherwise the candidate who supports the plan would have not been elected again and again

E) This choice seems not to weakens the argument at first(so i kept it as a contender initially) but if look closely it reveals that the residents are devided in three sections 60%(opposers), 35%(supporters), and 5%(neutral). Now the percentage of illegal immigrants is possibily 28% or 29% (just under 30%)and those should must be in 60% section. if those 28% have no voting rights then the candidate who oppose the plan would left with only 32% supporters who can actually vote and can not win the election with that. This weakens the argument. Incorrect.

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Re: CR 700+ : Illegal immigration [#permalink] New post 17 Feb 2013, 14:03
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Vercules wrote:

(E) If around 30% of the residents are illegal immigrants then the percentage of people who oppose the plan would drop to 30%. So the candidate who opposes the plan may not necessarily win the election.


The part I've highlighted in red is not quite right, mathematically. Say you have 100 people:

--> 60 oppose the plan
--> 35 support the plan
--> 5 are neutral

but we know 30 of these people are illegal immigrants and cannot vote. Assuming they all oppose the plan, when we remove those 30 people from the opposition, we have:

--> 30 oppose the plan
--> 35 support the plan
--> 5 are neutral

The total number of people is now much less than 100. So we don't have 30% opposition; we have 30/70 = 43% opposition. And if you group the opposition with those who are neutral, then you find that 50% of all people are either in opposition or are neutral (and more than 50% are if you take into account that the number of illegal immigrants is actually 'just under 30%').

So while I agree that E weakens the analyst's argument, it would be a mistake to conclude from E that a majority of actual voters will support the plan; that's still untrue even using E.

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, illega [#permalink] New post 17 Feb 2013, 14:10
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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink] New post 23 May 2014, 21:08
Hello from the GMAT Club VerbalBot!

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Re: CR 700+ : Illegal immigration [#permalink] New post 23 May 2014, 21:09
Narenn wrote:
It's B.
Analysis of Argument :- illegal immigration is an important issue. One candidate plans to deport illegal immigrants whereas other does not. 60% of residents opposed the plan whereas 35% supported it. So the conclusion is, the candidate who oppose the plan will win the election because he enjoys support of 60% residents. There are several things which must have assumed while drawing the conclusion and if did not they will weaken the conclusion. Any choice that contain reasoning reverse of them will be incorrect here 1) all or substantial residents do posses the voting right. 2) all or substantial residents that oppose the plan would actually vote on election day. 3) all or substantial residents that oppose the plan would cast their votes to the candidate who also oppose this plan.

A) Incorrect. This clearly weakens the argument by saying voters do not vote on the basis of candidates' position on illegal migration

B) This choice stays neutral and is correct answer.

C) Incorrect. If substatial voters who oppose the plan have no voting rights then it is difficult for that candidate to win. Weakens the argument.

D) Incorrect. This says there are other factors than illegal immigration on which voters decides whom to vote. Otherwise the candidate who supports the plan would have not been elected again and again

E) This choice seems not to weakens the argument at first(so i kept it as a contender initially) but if look closely it reveals that the residents are devided in three sections 60%(opposers), 35%(supporters), and 5%(neutral). Now the percentage of illegal immigrants is possibily 28% or 29% (just under 30%)and those should must be in 60% section. if those 28% have no voting rights then the candidate who oppose the plan would left with only 32% supporters who can actually vote and can not win the election with that. This weakens the argument. Incorrect.


Very precise explanation for E. Thanks.
Re: CR 700+ : Illegal immigration   [#permalink] 23 May 2014, 21:09
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