My guess is that we'll see more waitlist movement than last year, but about the same in R3 admits. I think the adcoms hedged their bets by waitlisting a bunch of folks, and now they can pick from those lists to fill out the second round admits.
How about the concept that R3 applications tend to be of lesser quality and less meticulously planned than those apps. of R1 and R2? Do you think that might have an effect on the generally shoddy chances of acceptance in R3? I'm just playing devil's advocate, trying to look at the process in a different way.
Disclaimer: I am in for R2 everywhere, just curious about the different attitudes regarding R3.