vksunder wrote:
Crops can be traded on the futures market before they are harvested. If a poor corn harvest is predicted, prices of corn futures rise; if a bountiful corn harvest is predicted, prices of corn futures fall. This morning meteorologists are predicting much-needed rain for the corn-growing region starting tomorrow. Therefore, since adequate moisture is essential for the current crop’s survival, prices of corn futures will fall sharply today.
Which of the following, if true, most weakens the argument above?
(A) Corn that does not receive adequate moisture during its critical pollination stage will not produce a bountiful harvest.
(B) Futures prices for corn have been fluctuating more dramatically this season than last season.
(C) The rain that meteorologists predicted for tomorrow is expected to extend well beyond the corn-growing region.
(D) Agriculture experts announced today that a disease that has devastated some of the corn crop will spread widely before the end of the growing season.
(E) Most people who trade in corn futures rarely take physical possession of the corn they trade.
Much needed rain for corn is predicted from tomorrow.
Adequate moisture is essential for current crop's survival.
Conclusion: Prices of corn futures will fall sharply today (implying that bountiful crop harvest will be predicted)
What would weaken the conclusion. Note that the argument gives us that one necessary condition for a bountiful crop will be met. The conclusion says that this will lead to a bountiful crop. What will weaken this? If we say that some other necessary condition will not be met then our conclusion is weakened.
(A) Corn that does not receive adequate moisture during its critical pollination stage will not produce a bountiful harvest.
We already know that adequate moisture is necessary.
(B) Futures prices for corn have been fluctuating more dramatically this season than last season.
Irrelevant
(C) The rain that meteorologists predicted for tomorrow is expected to extend well beyond the corn-growing region.
The rain will extend beyond the corn growing region so it will cover other areas too where no corn is grown. This is irrelevant. We only need to worry about the corn growing region and we know that they will receive rain.
(D) Agriculture experts announced today that a disease that has devastated some of the corn crop will spread widely before the end of the growing season.
Now, if the prediction of corn crop getting destroyed by a disease is announced, then the price of corn futures may not fall because a bountiful crop my not be expected. So another necessary condition for bountiful crop would be 'no disease' which is not being met. Correct
(E) Most people who trade in corn futures rarely take physical possession of the corn they trade.
Irrelevant.
Answer (D)
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