The conclusion is that "Gortland will soon have to import either grain or meat or both". Let's take a look at how the author arrives at that conclusion:
- "Gortland has long been narrowly self-sufficient in both grain and meat." - This means that Gortland has just enough grain and meat to meet (no pun intended) its demand without having to rely on imports.
- "Per capita income in Gortland has risen toward the world average" - So the average income per person has been increasing.
- Because of this increase in average income, meat consumption per person has also increased.
- "It takes several pounds of grain to produce one pound of meat."
- The author thus concludes that Gortland will not be able to sustain itself. They will either need to import more meat to fill the increased demand or import more grain in order to produce the additional meat on their own.
But are those the only possible situations? In order for the author's argument to hold, we have to assume one of the following:
Quote:
(A) The total acreage devoted to grain production in Gortland will soon decrease.
If meat consumption increases, we will either need to use more grain to produce that meat or import the meat from somewhere else. Even if grain production remains relatively stable, we still have to deal with the increase in demand for meat. Choice (A) would STRENGTHEN the author's argument, but it is not a
required assumption. Eliminate (A).
Quote:
(B) Importing either grain or meat will not result in a significantly higher percentage of Gortlanders' incomes being spent on food than is currently the case.
We are not concerned with the effect of importing grain or meat on prices or personal budgets. The author is only trying to argue that the increase in meat consumption will create a need to import some grain or meat. Choice (B) is not relevant to this argument and can be eliminated.
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(C) The per capita consumption of meat in Gortland is increasing at roughly the same rate across all income levels.
It doesn't matter how meat consumption is DISTRIBUTED across income levels. All that matters is that AVERAGE meat consumption per person has increased. So maybe only the wealthiest citizens of Gortland (say, the top 25%) have started eating more meat. Such an increase would raise overall PER CAPITA meat consumption (average per person for the whole population), so Gortland will still need to produce more meat or import it from elsewhere to fill the increased demand. Choice (C) is not a required assumption.
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(D) The per capita income of meat producers in Gortland is rising faster than the per capita income of grain producers.
We don't care how per capita income of meat producers compares to per capita income of grain producers. We are already told that AVERAGE income is increasing and that, as a result, AVERAGE meat consumption is also increasing. How the income increases are distributed doesn't matter as long as overall per capita income is increasing. Choice (D) is not a required assumption.
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(E) People in Gortland who increase their consumption of meat will not radically decrease their consumption of grain.
The author rightly reasons that if Gortland wants to fill the demand for meat on its own, it will need to use more grain to produce that meat. This is a problem if grain consumption remains constant. We currently have just enough grain to meet the demand for grain, so if we need to use more grain to produce meat, we won't have enough grain.
But that logic is only valid if GRAIN consumption remains constant. What if grain consumption significantly decreases? Yes, we will need more grain to produce the meat, but we'll need LESS grain for personal grain consumption. In that case, the two factors could balance each other out, and Gortland might not need to import grain or meat at all.
The author's argument relies on the assumption that people in Gortland who increase their consumption of meat will not radically decrease their consumption of grain, so (E) is the best answer.
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