Rather than go through a POE, I think there is an easier method by looking at the question:
Which of the following most accurately expresses the main conclusion? – Meaning: Locate the main conclusion in the argument and match to one of A-E.
So lets find the conclusion:
Prediction, the hallmark..... a premise describing what prediction is (therefore very much factual)
Some social scientist...... further information on the preferences of social scientists. Another premise.
But this would be a mistake..... Bingo! This statement talks about what would happen in the hypothetical future if the aforementioned premises were followed. I like these kind of conclusions (ones which talk about what might happen in the future) because they are easily located by the mere fact they occur in a different ‘tense’ in the argument.
All you need to do now is read A – E and see which matches this conclusion. There is only one thats close: D
Hope that helps
In the study cave!