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Probability of Getting into Business School

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Probability of Getting into Business School [#permalink] New post 23 Sep 2010, 10:26
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Ahh..I've been studying for GMAT way too long and bored of meaningless word problems, so came up with my own applicable one and actually feel a little better now (assuming I did the math correctly this time, oh god I hope I can do the math correctly!)

Michmax3 is applying to 5 top business schools with the following acceptance rates: Chicago (22%), Stanford (5%), Berkeley (12%), Kellogg (19%) and Duke (30%). What is the probability that she will be accepted to at least one of these schools?

P (getting in at least one school) = 1- P (getting rejected from all schools)

1-(.78 x .95 x .88 x .81 x .70) =
1-(.369) = .63

So...probability that I will get in to at least one school of my choice is about 63%
I can live with that! Happy studying everyone!

Disclaimer: Obviously not everyone has an equal probability of being accepted to begin with, so since this is based only on random selection, it will not be accurate. Maybe this question could be revised to include more details, like possibly I get +1% for being female, but maybe lose 5% for under 700 GMAT...well only until the retake hopefully!)
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Re: Probability of Getting into Business School [#permalink] New post 23 Sep 2010, 11:05
that's some good computing skills. just keep working on it and i'm sure you'll get there.
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Re: Probability of Getting into Business School [#permalink] New post 23 Sep 2010, 12:57
Haha, I am sure you'll get into at least one of the schools you like. I definitely hope so. :)
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Re: Probability of Getting into Business School [#permalink] New post 23 Sep 2010, 13:23
Unfortunately, getting accepted is not a random event (every candidate does not have an equally likely chance of admittance) so probability theory doesn't work here.
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Re: Probability of Getting into Business School [#permalink] New post 23 Sep 2010, 13:28
Jerz wrote:
Unfortunately, getting accepted is not a random event (every candidate does not have an equally likely chance of admittance) so probability theory doesn't work here.


I know, just for fun...it's in the disclaimer. And that's not really unfortunate, otherwise you would have a lot of unqualified people in there :)
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Re: Probability of Getting into Business School [#permalink] New post 23 Sep 2010, 13:45
Also almost all those numbers are old, Duke is down to 24% (Adcom said so at an info session)
Fun stuff though, I wish it were that simple!
one more school and you'd be a lock!
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Re: Probability of Getting into Business School [#permalink] New post 23 Sep 2010, 16:15
i need this!!!!!! kudos
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Re: Probability of Getting into Business School [#permalink] New post 24 Sep 2010, 08:55
Ha Ha..Good one !
It echos my sentiments as well :-D
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Re: Probability of Getting into Business School [#permalink] New post 24 Sep 2010, 09:40
dokiyoki wrote:
Ha Ha..Good one !
It echos my sentiments as well :-D


that's a good thing. It's essential that you walk into the GMAT with a good frame of mind.
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Re: Probability of Getting into Business School [#permalink] New post 10 Oct 2010, 02:01
Congrats to your excellent score. I guess the acceptance rates are highly correlated between schools on the same level. Therefore if you get accepted by one school , then you have a high probability that you also get accepted by the other schools.
Re: Probability of Getting into Business School   [#permalink] 10 Oct 2010, 02:01
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