Well first of all, since you are only applying to one school it makes your strategy a whole lot easier
It doesn't matter what your chances are, you just apply.
From a strategy perspective there is one thing that might harm your application and that is your goals of moving into finance. Basically tech to finance is what every indian candidate wants (not to categorize, but I'm telling you this from the AdCom perspective) and besides just seeming like you are just running after the money, it also tends to be a highly unlikely series of events. There are enough finance people in finance who have a hard time getting the good jobs. Not that I am saying you can't make this change, but that as a story for an AdCom it doesn't sound all that fantastic.
And it would be shame for you to go with such goals cause your work experience, your extra stuff (I'm liking the cricket stats Website) is all pretty good. And you don't want to sabotage your chance with unrealistic and overly common goals. Other that that, in your application focus a bit less on the "Technical" side of your job and a lot more on the "innovation/leadership/teamwork" sides of things.. because this is what differentiates an engineer from a manager, and they will be looking for that.
Hope this makes sense and if you need anything else, let me know...
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