Hi there,
Thanks for posting. Let me first start with my opinion without focusing on either of the prior consultant's views.
My general impressions are, you have a unique profile and background for b-school, which can actually be a plus in that if nothing else, it helps you stand out from the crowd and 'be remembered' so to speak.
Doesn't mean you're a shoo-in, but it helps. And Japanese applicants are less common than other nationalities.
Your research topic, impact, and experiences will all be of interest, to an admissions committee as well as, if you think about it, to your fellow classmates.
Career changing PER SE does not have to be an issue as it's fairly common in b-school, but it IS important to demonstrate what you've learned and gained from your past experiences that you'll carry over to your new career. Generally you can explain that in your essays and interview, something to prepare for. You'll also need/want a strong, clear and concise explanation for the WHY for the career change, and WHY the MBA, and WHY now.
Your extensive experience could actually raise some q's.... much higher than the average applicant, so it becomes even more important that you truly can make a case for needing the MBA and needing it at this point in your career, and that you have really well-thought-out and realistic goals, fyi.
You may need to brainstorm about how you can build upon your leadership experiences to ensure you showcase that side out of all of your experience... have you spear-headed projects or initiatives? Persuaded others in any way? Motivated, encouraged, mentored? Anything you can think of during your professional experience would help.
You may have a chance at the schools you listed, and if you can make a good case for why NYC as you started to describe, that will help. Be sure you really do your research at both programs (NYU and Columbia) and know their differences, strengths, culture, etc so you can include compelling reasons of the WHY for each program.... they want to be sure people know how they are different from one another and truly want to attend there!
Given your goals, you could also look into Yale or Haas, or even Fuqua (I know, not in NYC).
If you put your story together well, it could work. I must say, I think a lot of the decision rests on those essays... if you think about it, the essays are the one part of your application where you create something from SCRATCH to represent who you are!! Lots of opportunity there, and can make all the difference.
B-school admissions is more an art than a science, and there is subjectivity inherent in it. Admissions officers do not use a given formula per se, they really look at the applicant holistically and assess what they'll bring to the program, and what they'll gain from the program, and aim to create a diverse class with interesting experiences to learn from one another. Focus on your people and project management skills, leadership, teamwork, communication skills, and how any or all of those, as gained from your work experience, will contribute to the classroom.
For the reasons of the subjectivity and holistic approach, you can hear different feedback from different consultants, and keep in mind we (well at least I) haven't seen your essays which are SUCH a crucial component to the overall impression you are providing. Hence the differing views. I would lean toward consultant 1's assessment with caveats that you NEED a compelling overall story, showing that your PAST + MBA = your FUTURE goals, and to overcome the fact that you could be considered over-experienced etc. If you put it all together right, I think you'd have a chance at strong programs. It's still a good idea to add a 'safety' school option though, so keep researching!!
Please let me know what other q's you have and how we can help! And would love to hear what happens.
If you're interested in an more in-depth profile eval and q&a we do have a 30 minute free consult, if you're interested you can register at
https://www.mbamission.com/consult.php. You can still post here too of course.
Good luck to you!