At this point, it's quite simple.
It hinges on your GMAT. Realistically, you need at least a 700 or more, otherwise any school in the top 16 is going to be a stretch (and in particular schools in the top 8 like Stanford and Kellogg). Assuming you get a 700+, you have enough of a shot at Stanford and Kellogg that they're at least worth applying, so long as you have other schools on your list where you have a better shot at as well (NYU, McCombs, UCLA).
So rather than worry about your chances, what you really need to do at this point is to focus 110% on GMAT prep.
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