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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
- people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken
or the prediction needs one action to be taken to be fullfilled
- the result admits of more than one interpretation
or the result holds true even though there are multiple actions that lead to it ( it's just a matter of interpretation which action one deems to be the "necessary" action)
This means nothing less than:
For a prediction to hold true, the predicted action must have taken place and the result must have occured.
A wrong prediction is therefore not distinguishable from a right prediction, if the result remains the same, in that the predicted action preceded the result, but wasn't its reason.
Grammatically speaking, I think the question is poorly written. Anyway, working with what we do have, answer choice D is extremely bold in it`s use of the term "impossible." We are taught to avoid such verbiage (always, never, must, impossible, absolutely, etc) when analyzing CRs.
(C) looks like a safer choice with the word "good." IMHO this translates into a 70-80%, but not a 100%, success rate thereby leaving some margin for error or exception.